Recently so from all screens and from all динамиков our people to see, have badgered and застращали any horrors about economic accident threatening to the West that me about different things with applications of terrible expressions of type "default", «a credit rating» and other horror even more often began to ask.
At one my correspondent, very touching, actually the person sincerely grieving about destinies of a civilization, the candidate of philosophical sciences, directly cry from the heart has escaped: «Write, please, about a default to the USA. Really the American economy in such bum»? I at first have melancholically waved away: «I will Write hardly, but you for them don't worry. At all of them will be in a full order». However the philosopher wasn't appeased: «I for them don't worry, but to me really it is not clear, why at the USA such enormous external debt. Also afflicts gloating around — Americans-parasites have finished badly at last».
Me, truth, gloating doesn't afflict, I, first, have got used for a long time to it and even, probably, would miss, if it wasn't, and, secondly, itself so these Americans I hate that I can not directly eat. But, I feel, it is necessary to tell all the same some words about this history to calm especially sensitive domestic philosophers.
I can begin, of course, here the erudition to show and any clever words to use, but to sense from it won't be equal what. As soon as we will reach any "swaps", people though something understanding will start to yawn with boredom, and the others завязнут in a never-ending train of in passing arising questions. So give really in a few words and absolutely in a simple way.
That impudent грабилово which at us has been arranged in 98th, to the present civilized default has the same small relation, as the doctor-stomatologist to the doctor of philosophy. Therefore it is not necessary to itself to represent that now Americans as we then, will be built in long turns in exchangers on purpose to get rid of promptly falling dollar and dream to buy if not euro and yuans so though there are some roubles, and their banks will disappear together with money of clients. However, that ostensibly threatens the USA, too concerns this default not much большее, purely formal therefore to a terrible word and definition "technical" is added usually that does all term entirely for the ordinary inhabitant practically not significant.
But nevertheless it is necessary to mention three main horror films. Deficiency of trading balance, a budgeted deficit and a public debt. That is, all is formal it exists actually. The USA buy more than sell, thus the State expenditure more than tax revenues, and the country borrows money. But in a reality all is full nonsense and on the named concepts it is not necessary to transfer our household representations about the person who at the salary in fifteen thousand goes by "Mercedes" and was up to the ears in debt to all relatives and acquaintances.
In present liquid transnational economy that in general who makes and as this trading balance is calculated, a piece even not virtual, and almost already astral and mystical. At me the friend supervises in New York over the several newspapers which owner, the citizen of Israel, lives in Germany, impose editions in Belarus, group of computer support at us in Dolgoprudnom, and money overworks on advertizing from every corner of the globe. And it so, the smallest and primitive example, the present business is even more poured on a planet and from what country at it actually feet grow, it is simply impossible to establish more often.
But has put at all in it. And that for a long time already not so simply to define, and even simply to understand and that, actually, is on sale and bought. It was simple earlier. The country doesn't make enough foodstuff that to support, means, should sell something, for example oil that on this money to buy, say, grain. Oil has fallen in price, money for grain didn't begin to suffice, there was a sensation of easy hunger. That it hasn't amplified, have started to borrow. And on sale to make anything except oil haven't learned, and it has still fallen in price, and to repay debts there is nothing. Here and all great economic knowledge.
And now with many so-called civilized countries which we so like to name "so-called" because, naturally, actually it only we civilized, and so, with these wild countries at all is very difficult for understanding that they actually make and that sell. As even the American jeans in America any more don't sew. That is, not absolutely all is awful, somehow they still to support themselves and back can cover, but from real things, as a matter of fact, except, strangely enough, already mentioned wheat in anything plainly don't trade. But somehow so it turns out that all goods are done by Chineses, and economy the largest all the same at the USA. Certainly, Shevchenkos with Leontevym will quickly explain to you that it is continuous additions and a cheating, but, thank God, the mentioned misters aren't the basic buyers and consumers made in America. And even the highest high technologies, and even most прорывные inventions and discoveries though occur till now from the same USA, but even not they are the main article of export.
And here that actually is the main article, I to you now won't tell. Therefore, as differently we absolutely will leave aside. Some, in my opinion, wrongly, name it "senses". I can while extremely conditionally to designate only it a certain product of the third order and on that already precisely to stop not to be fond. But it is all the lyrics, and it is enough to us to understand the only thing. That now makes and is sold by China, the mankind can quite manage. To China will be without it very much, probably even it is already deadly, heavy, and the others покряхтят, of course, поноют, but will quite survive. And here that make and sell the USA, the modern civilization for today, and in the foreseeable future, well in any way can't manage.
To that all other is technical details, as that «a technical default», of which each other republicans with democrats simply frighten to solve own small interparty problems. But frighten very much not sincerely as perfectly understand, as to the opponent too it is not terrible, as all is standard ritual and anything else.
So on second of August they will agree, will formally lift a debt lath and another will occur nothing. Or will occur. For some days will detain pensions the state employee and payment of percent on state papers. Will represent all it as terrible accident then besides will agree. To noise, of course, it is a lot of, but it not long-range artillery on approaches to Berlin in 45th, it at the next night club petards and шутихами play about.
The attentive reader, probably, has noticed that I at all haven't mentioned such trifle that those dollars in which are nominated, in my opinion, more than conditional debts of the USA also are printed by the USA and not so cost much in manufacture.
By the way, the same Chineses, main possible бенефициары a world economic and financial reorganization, perfectly it is all understand, and though secretly lick for certain lips, but especially don't twitch. I specially didn't want to give here any citations and to refer to authorities, Whether but nevertheless I will dare to result pair of lines from the statement of the director of Institute of Asian-Pacific researches at the Chinese academy of social studies of Sjanjana, ardent, by the way the fighter with the American dollar as base of a currency exchange: «Chances that the United States of America will face public debt crisis as it was in Greece, is insignificant are small. First, the statistical data shows that investors are still interested in purchase of new American promissory notes. Secondly,« the technical default »won't force Central Banks of other countries which are the basic holders of promissory notes of the USA, to dump these securities on cheap stuff».
Here, actually, let and through clenched teeth, but all is told. If to add that percent on the mentioned promissory notes so and haven't exceeded till now three percent and at all to speak more nothing it is necessary. Anybody seriously doesn't concern forthcoming American financial and economic accident, and we should calm down. At least, about it.
One my friend of a youth, nowadays for a long time the late, very talented director, shot just the first film, however already very much abused that, usually, however, didn't disturb to creative and industrial processes. But once in the morning on a platform the studio bus has stopped, the door has opened and on steps there was my friend in a condition which has caused fear in the script writer waiting for the director for any joint actions. The girl also has tried to express These fears in the softest form: «Nikita, can, we will cancel shooting, you standing don't stand, лажа will be». Nikita has looked at it a steady gaze and has accurately said: «Lazhi not бу.». Then has dropped out of the bus, having fallen asleep hurriedly. Anything to itself hasn't damaged, a film досняли, and it has received set of prizes on different international film festivals.
Yes, and in the conclusion, two most important moments.
First, and all modern world in general, and at the USA in particular, has huge, some even plainly not clearly as solved problems both in economy, and in the pure finance, in many other areas. But they aren't connected with declared for August, second in America the dramatized apocalypse.
And, secondly, what there publicly and in mass-media spoke and different world financial authorities and officials declared, actually, as practically always happens in similar cases, approximately forty serious economists and financiers adhere to percent similar from my point of view, as much have opinion opposite, and the others fairly admit that representations have no, as the card will lay down. Therefore at my readers just the same and in quantitative and in a qualitative sense a choice. It is possible to believe to me, it is possible to send me, and it is the most reliable — to shrug shoulders puzzly.
But all the same will be how I have told.
Alexander Vasilev
