Moscow. On December, 20th. FINMARKET.RU - every year Saxo Bank publishes "Shocking predictions". It is attempt of economists and analysts of bank to reveal rare, but influences of event possessing the big force which are beyond usual market expectations (so-called "black swans").
As authors mark, this publication represents intellectual exercise, possibility for investors to test the portfolio on durability in case of occurrence of market cataclysms. "We also try to predict these cataclysms with hope that all of them won't occur (nevertheless, in 2010 we have appeared are right in 3 cases from 10). This year we argue on destiny of dollar, the price for oil, and also for the first time in history" predictions "we speak about Russia", - is told in the review.
So, "shocking predictions":
The congress of the USA will block the third round of quantitative softening
In process of approach of second half of 2011 of a policy and scientists considerably will succeed in exposing Federal reserve system (ФРС) the main originator in crash of the housing market and debt accident in the USA. Meanwhile, the largest banks again will get into difficulties: their solvency will be under the threat because of poor-quality mortgage portfolios.
The chairman of FRS Bernanke will collect round itself committee-men on the open market (FOMC) to declare additional essential expansion of a monetary and credit policy and once again to rescue the suffered banks and the governments. However the call supported by political tendencies thrown by Ronom by the Floor of power FRS, can lead to that the congress will deprive ФРС of possibility to increase the balance, and it finally will threaten double mandate ФРС on employment and inflation.
Company Apple will buy Facebook
As though you have arrived, if it wanted to you to become the leader of the consumer market of electronic and mobile devices, but you wouldn't have not enough significant presence at social networks? And on all about all you have $51 млрд? You buy Facebook - a cradle of all social networks. According to a site sharespost.com Facebook there is $43 billion In interview the general director of company Apple Steve Jobs has declared that Apple discussed with Facebook cooperation possibilities, but negotiations so in what haven't resulted. According to Jobs, Facebook has laid down burdensome conditions. At conference Web 2.0 Summit founder Facebook Mark Tsukerberg has urged Apple to reduce turns in the aspiration to integrate Ping and Facebook.
Generally Steve Jobs can buy Facebook entirely. It more than logically. Facebook doesn't compete with Apple and "does not give in" before Google that is pleasant to Jobs, considering that Google became its new enemy No 1.
Apple and Facebook - the union concluded in heavens. The huge base of users Facebook on 500 million persons is built in all products and services, and each user Facebook automatically receives an account in iTunes Store, and chat FaceTime is integrated into chat Facebook. And it is a large quantity of the input equipment and a conclusion.
The dollar index will grow on 25 %
Any time a trajectory of economic growth in 2011 in the majority of the countries of the world will seem favorable, at least, everywhere, except Europe and Japan. But here there are problems in China where the new 12th five years' plan, called to improve consumption concerning industrial and building activity, doesn't work. In view of that in connection with policy change, the industrial base of China grows all more slowly or doesn't grow absolutely, economy of the countries-companions depending on the Chinese demand, can seriously suffer.
It will lead to sharp reduction of world demand on высокорискованные actives; and, considering that the Japanese economy experiences serious difficulties, and in an euro area the chaos reigns, the American dollar not seems such bad choice any more, as earlier. The relation changes and consequently that the market actively sold currency in the beginning of year. As a result of reduction of short positions by the end of the third quarter 2011 the dollar index will grow on 25 %.
Profitableness under 30-year-old bonds of the USA will fall to 3 %
The policy of devaluation of dollar which originates in currency wars of 2010, compels emerging markets to use free dollars for purchase of the state exchequer bonds. The economy of the USA balances on the brink "японизации" in the conditions of delay of rates of inflation. Measures ФРС on quantitative softening haven't brought anything good, besides, that have facilitated problem balances of the American banks. The tax bearer has received only a rise in prices for actions.
Besides, for high-grade restoration of economy there are no stimulus. And still there is an euro area where ЕЦБ, EU and IMF can't cope with problems in the peripheral countries of group PIIGS (Portugal, Italy Ireland, Greece, Spain) that forces uneasy investors to put up money in safe actives of uncle Sam. In second half of 2010 positive moods in the USA have increased, but in 2011 they will disappear, and profitableness under 30-year-old bonds will fall to 3 %.
The course of the Australian dollar to pound sterling will fall to 25 %
British come back to old values: work more, save more. And here in 2011 powerful restoration unexpectedly begins, and the country put into a diet throws down a challenge to sceptics.
The markets will become angry to Great Britain, in view of universal that expectation that rates of development of economy will be slowed down in process of realization of measures of prime minister Cameron on reduction of expenses in system. However reductions won't affect consumer moods and as a result positive influence of real economy on manufacture, the British economy will be restored in second half of 2011 and following the results of a year becomes the leader of growth in Europe.
Australia, on the contrary, will endure recession, as China will press all more strongly on a brake pedal not to allow inflation to get out of hand. To it it is added also the Australian market of real estate which at the best needs constraining measures, and in the worst reminds a bubble which just about will burst. All it creates conditions for falling of a course of the Australian dollar to pound on 25 %.
The price for oil will fly up, but then will win back third
The oil supported by macroeconomic expectations of investors, will continue to grow, and in the beginning of 2011 will exceed $100 for barrel against euphoria of that the American economy was released from fetters. Unlike 2008, stimulus for growth continuation won't be. Investors will feel despondency and confusion. In second half of year strong correction which will lead to reduction of price on oil on one third will begin.
The price for natural gas will grow on 50 %
The beginning of 2011 will be characterized by surplus of stocks of gas as because of recession in world economy, the offer of gas within two years surpassed demand. It also became the reason of two-place losses throughout two years. But within 2011 fundamental factors for trade at stock exchange Henry Hub considerably will improve. The increase in industrial demand in the conditions of restoration of the American economy, historical cheapness concerning oil and coal, alignment of a forward curve and realization of offers on increase in export of gas reserves of the USA - all it will lead to that passive investments into gas become more profitable. Besides, because of extraordinary strong cold snap stocks will be promptly exhausted. In this connection in 2011 at stock exchange Henry Hub the rise in prices for natural gas for 50 % that there is time in 25 years is expected.
The price for gold will rise to $1800 against an aggravation of currency wars
Currency wars will return in 2011. It will be promoted by improvement of a condition of the American economy, instead of necessity to stimulate ic restoration. Deficiency of trading balance of the USA will increase, as consumers and administrations of separate states again will get the purses. In the conditions of growth of deficiency the plan of president Obama "to increase export twice within the next five years" reminds empty imagination more and more. Pressure upon China will increase, and investors will put means in metals in search of stability. Gold will rise in price to $1800 for тройскую ounce.
Index S&P500 will establish a historical maximum
Ben Bernanke, using the obligation "to guarantee growth in the financial markets", in 2011 will continue to pump up system liquidity. Abundantly clear that unique strategy which needs to be followed, it - to buy on recessions. But tactics though represents the card house, actually works on ФРС as the American consumer starts to increase expenses, looking at how its portfolio of actions improves, and forgiving all to the investment manager.
However the corporate sector of America isn't bought on this euphoria and doesn't consider that the high price of the action is the growth indicator, and continues to undertake measures on reduction of a share of extra means - margin increase, the careful approach to expenses and management of balance, debt refinancing under almost zero rates and other. The present restoration further begins, and the basic index of the USA will leave behind a maximum of 2007 on a way to a mark of 1600 points.
RTS index will reach 2500 points
In 2011 for the Russian index of RTS there will be perfect conditions. In the beginning of year the next global economic bubble will start to be inflated, and it will provoke growth of the price for oil above $100 for barrel. The average American investor will need to do nothing as soon as to take on shares recessions in the American market, and fans of the Russian stock market realize value of this index at factor P/E (the relation of capitalization to profit) in the long term one year at level 8,6 and factor P/B at level 1,26. RTS index in 2011 will grow almost twice to level of 2500 points. According to the market of options, there is one chance from twelve that it will occur. RTS index has reached such levels only once - in the middle of 2008.
As authors mark, this publication represents intellectual exercise, possibility for investors to test the portfolio on durability in case of occurrence of market cataclysms. "We also try to predict these cataclysms with hope that all of them won't occur (nevertheless, in 2010 we have appeared are right in 3 cases from 10). This year we argue on destiny of dollar, the price for oil, and also for the first time in history" predictions "we speak about Russia", - is told in the review.
So, "shocking predictions":
The congress of the USA will block the third round of quantitative softening
In process of approach of second half of 2011 of a policy and scientists considerably will succeed in exposing Federal reserve system (ФРС) the main originator in crash of the housing market and debt accident in the USA. Meanwhile, the largest banks again will get into difficulties: their solvency will be under the threat because of poor-quality mortgage portfolios.
The chairman of FRS Bernanke will collect round itself committee-men on the open market (FOMC) to declare additional essential expansion of a monetary and credit policy and once again to rescue the suffered banks and the governments. However the call supported by political tendencies thrown by Ronom by the Floor of power FRS, can lead to that the congress will deprive ФРС of possibility to increase the balance, and it finally will threaten double mandate ФРС on employment and inflation.
Company Apple will buy Facebook
As though you have arrived, if it wanted to you to become the leader of the consumer market of electronic and mobile devices, but you wouldn't have not enough significant presence at social networks? And on all about all you have $51 млрд? You buy Facebook - a cradle of all social networks. According to a site sharespost.com Facebook there is $43 billion In interview the general director of company Apple Steve Jobs has declared that Apple discussed with Facebook cooperation possibilities, but negotiations so in what haven't resulted. According to Jobs, Facebook has laid down burdensome conditions. At conference Web 2.0 Summit founder Facebook Mark Tsukerberg has urged Apple to reduce turns in the aspiration to integrate Ping and Facebook.
Generally Steve Jobs can buy Facebook entirely. It more than logically. Facebook doesn't compete with Apple and "does not give in" before Google that is pleasant to Jobs, considering that Google became its new enemy No 1.
Apple and Facebook - the union concluded in heavens. The huge base of users Facebook on 500 million persons is built in all products and services, and each user Facebook automatically receives an account in iTunes Store, and chat FaceTime is integrated into chat Facebook. And it is a large quantity of the input equipment and a conclusion.
The dollar index will grow on 25 %
Any time a trajectory of economic growth in 2011 in the majority of the countries of the world will seem favorable, at least, everywhere, except Europe and Japan. But here there are problems in China where the new 12th five years' plan, called to improve consumption concerning industrial and building activity, doesn't work. In view of that in connection with policy change, the industrial base of China grows all more slowly or doesn't grow absolutely, economy of the countries-companions depending on the Chinese demand, can seriously suffer.
It will lead to sharp reduction of world demand on высокорискованные actives; and, considering that the Japanese economy experiences serious difficulties, and in an euro area the chaos reigns, the American dollar not seems such bad choice any more, as earlier. The relation changes and consequently that the market actively sold currency in the beginning of year. As a result of reduction of short positions by the end of the third quarter 2011 the dollar index will grow on 25 %.
Profitableness under 30-year-old bonds of the USA will fall to 3 %
The policy of devaluation of dollar which originates in currency wars of 2010, compels emerging markets to use free dollars for purchase of the state exchequer bonds. The economy of the USA balances on the brink "японизации" in the conditions of delay of rates of inflation. Measures ФРС on quantitative softening haven't brought anything good, besides, that have facilitated problem balances of the American banks. The tax bearer has received only a rise in prices for actions.
Besides, for high-grade restoration of economy there are no stimulus. And still there is an euro area where ЕЦБ, EU and IMF can't cope with problems in the peripheral countries of group PIIGS (Portugal, Italy Ireland, Greece, Spain) that forces uneasy investors to put up money in safe actives of uncle Sam. In second half of 2010 positive moods in the USA have increased, but in 2011 they will disappear, and profitableness under 30-year-old bonds will fall to 3 %.
The course of the Australian dollar to pound sterling will fall to 25 %
British come back to old values: work more, save more. And here in 2011 powerful restoration unexpectedly begins, and the country put into a diet throws down a challenge to sceptics.
The markets will become angry to Great Britain, in view of universal that expectation that rates of development of economy will be slowed down in process of realization of measures of prime minister Cameron on reduction of expenses in system. However reductions won't affect consumer moods and as a result positive influence of real economy on manufacture, the British economy will be restored in second half of 2011 and following the results of a year becomes the leader of growth in Europe.
Australia, on the contrary, will endure recession, as China will press all more strongly on a brake pedal not to allow inflation to get out of hand. To it it is added also the Australian market of real estate which at the best needs constraining measures, and in the worst reminds a bubble which just about will burst. All it creates conditions for falling of a course of the Australian dollar to pound on 25 %.
The price for oil will fly up, but then will win back third
The oil supported by macroeconomic expectations of investors, will continue to grow, and in the beginning of 2011 will exceed $100 for barrel against euphoria of that the American economy was released from fetters. Unlike 2008, stimulus for growth continuation won't be. Investors will feel despondency and confusion. In second half of year strong correction which will lead to reduction of price on oil on one third will begin.
The price for natural gas will grow on 50 %
The beginning of 2011 will be characterized by surplus of stocks of gas as because of recession in world economy, the offer of gas within two years surpassed demand. It also became the reason of two-place losses throughout two years. But within 2011 fundamental factors for trade at stock exchange Henry Hub considerably will improve. The increase in industrial demand in the conditions of restoration of the American economy, historical cheapness concerning oil and coal, alignment of a forward curve and realization of offers on increase in export of gas reserves of the USA - all it will lead to that passive investments into gas become more profitable. Besides, because of extraordinary strong cold snap stocks will be promptly exhausted. In this connection in 2011 at stock exchange Henry Hub the rise in prices for natural gas for 50 % that there is time in 25 years is expected.
The price for gold will rise to $1800 against an aggravation of currency wars
Currency wars will return in 2011. It will be promoted by improvement of a condition of the American economy, instead of necessity to stimulate ic restoration. Deficiency of trading balance of the USA will increase, as consumers and administrations of separate states again will get the purses. In the conditions of growth of deficiency the plan of president Obama "to increase export twice within the next five years" reminds empty imagination more and more. Pressure upon China will increase, and investors will put means in metals in search of stability. Gold will rise in price to $1800 for тройскую ounce.
Index S&P500 will establish a historical maximum
Ben Bernanke, using the obligation "to guarantee growth in the financial markets", in 2011 will continue to pump up system liquidity. Abundantly clear that unique strategy which needs to be followed, it - to buy on recessions. But tactics though represents the card house, actually works on ФРС as the American consumer starts to increase expenses, looking at how its portfolio of actions improves, and forgiving all to the investment manager.
However the corporate sector of America isn't bought on this euphoria and doesn't consider that the high price of the action is the growth indicator, and continues to undertake measures on reduction of a share of extra means - margin increase, the careful approach to expenses and management of balance, debt refinancing under almost zero rates and other. The present restoration further begins, and the basic index of the USA will leave behind a maximum of 2007 on a way to a mark of 1600 points.
RTS index will reach 2500 points
In 2011 for the Russian index of RTS there will be perfect conditions. In the beginning of year the next global economic bubble will start to be inflated, and it will provoke growth of the price for oil above $100 for barrel. The average American investor will need to do nothing as soon as to take on shares recessions in the American market, and fans of the Russian stock market realize value of this index at factor P/E (the relation of capitalization to profit) in the long term one year at level 8,6 and factor P/B at level 1,26. RTS index in 2011 will grow almost twice to level of 2500 points. According to the market of options, there is one chance from twelve that it will occur. RTS index has reached such levels only once - in the middle of 2008.
