Forex - Concern over Irelands Banking Sector Halts EUR Rally

Forex News and Events:
 Another strangely quiet day in the FX markets so far. With not much to discuss, markets have been actively chattering about the WSJ article which claimed that the Fed will be pulling back on the “shock and awe” asset purchasing and instead will turn toward smaller, more targeted purchases. The overarching effect on the market will be a radical adjustment to quantitative easing (QE2) expectations and should give the USD a temporary boost to the upside.

Of course, any movement for the greenback depends heavily on economic data and a further erosion in fundamentals will rapidity have the Fed singing a much different tune. USD bulls were able to halt selling during the Asian session and USD-selling in European session is tentative at best.

The other central bank under the QE microscope due to a media report is the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Nikkei news reported that the BoJ is considering further policy actions ahead of next month’s meeting – something that if it happens, will be Yen negative.

Theories and rumors that the BoJ will increase government bond purchases were quickly refuted by Minister Noda, however we believe this will ultimately comes to pass as it’s the most logical avenue for the Japanese to choose. On Japanese economic data, exports rose by a less-than-expected +15.8% y/y vs. +19.0% expected – the data did provide a nice motive for earlier physical intervention as the strong Yen was blamed for the negative spillover into the real economy.

In the UK, Q2 GDP figures are due to be released, a figure which many will be watching as the preliminary release came in significantly higher than expected. Any revision down on this figure will only fuel speculation that further BoE quantitative easing may be around the corner.

Remember that the September BoE meeting noted that a few members foresaw that "the probability that further action would become necessary to stimulate the economy had increased" and members "stood ready to respond in either direction as the balance of risks evolved." Yesterday, the IMF endorsed the UK’s fiscal tightening plans which helped reduce the likelihood of a sharp fall in confidence. For those of you trading the Pound, keep in mind that the market will likely remain jumpy ahead of the Oct. 20th government fiscal austerity measures announcement.

While the UK government rapidly attempts to avert a fiscal crisis, the environment should be positive for the sterling in the long term – however, the upcoming announcement and the looming possibility of further BoE easing will weigh on the GBP in the near term. For pound fans, we would avoid GBPUSD and instead look to trade it against a fiscally sound “Scandi” or “Swissy” in the near future.

With a light economic calendar today, the market will likely focus on EU sovereign risk. In the peripheral countries, yield spreads and credit-default swap (CDS) prices continue to climb higher led by Ireland and Portugal - Irish 2 yr yields rose to their highest level since 2003. Yesterday’s downgrade of Anglo Irish's unguaranteed, senior-debt underscores market anxiety about that the Irish banking sector while rumors continue to swirl that Moody’s is preparing to downgrade Spain. We are not Euro positive today.

Forex Glossary

Before you start your forex trading experience you must make sure you are familiar with all major phrases and jargon of the forex market. Misunderstanding or using the wrong language might be embarrassing or even result in loss of money.

So, in order to make your life easier, and your forex trading understanding a little better, we have assembled a list of what we feel are the most important terms in this market. We tried to keep the list relatively short and put in it only the major, most important phrases, so new comers don’t get really confused.

You’ll pick up the rest of the terms throughout your own journey in the financial markets maze.

Carefully read and memorize the terms and their meaning and make sure you know them all before you start trading.

Currency Pair: two currencies constituting the exchange rate, e.g. USD/EUR.

Base Currency: the constant currency in a currency pair, the base currency always gets the value 1 and is always located first in the currency pair. E.g. in the currency pair USD/EUR USD, the base currency will always have the value 1. EUR’s value will determine the exchange rate for this pair.

Ask: The price that a seller is asking for a currency.

Bid: The price that a buyer is willing to pay for a currency.

Spread: the difference between the Ask and Bid prices at a certain point in time.

Stop Loss: an order that limits the price of a transaction (lowest for a seller or highest for a buyer) in order to restrict potential losses from the transaction.

Limit: an order to buy when a market reaches a certain price, when prices are falling, or sell when the market reached a certain price, when prices are increasing.

Clearing: Settling the transaction

Pips: often referred to as points. The smallest unit in a currency price, it is located in the fourth decimal place. So an increase in a currency’s ask price from 1.4555 to 1.4556 is a 1 pips increase.

Futures: a transaction for the selling/buying of foreign currency at a specific date in the future in a specific, predetermined exchange rate.

Long: buying a currency under the assumption that its’ value will increase.

Short: selling a currency under the assumption that its’ value will decrease.

Technical Analysis: using historical data to forecast future trends in the financial market.

Fundamental analysis: using economic and political information to forecast future trends in the financial market.

Appreciation: an ascent in a currency’s value.

Depreciation: decent in a currency’s value.

The rouble partially compensated losses of week

"Basket growth was not absolutely speculative, there was an emergency exit from short currency positions: this week the good buyer (currencies) after which leaving the dollar could fall below 30,9 (roubles)" participated in the auctions, - Anisimov has told.

"The main reason волатильности - shortage of the offer of the dollars necessary for repayment of an external debt, credits and specific transactions the companies", - Vladimir Demeshev from the Three Dialogue has told.


Participants of the market connect rouble strengthening on Thursday and Friday with increase in sales volumes of an export gain under the tax payments which peak is necessary the next week.

Volume of tax payments under the tax to mining operations (НДПИ) and excises which should pass not later than September, 27th, will make 150-180 billion roubles, and under the profit tax (till September, 28th) - 160-180 billion, Maria Pomelnikova from bank has counted up the Trust.


Демешев considers that the Russian currency market next week expects instability, Demeshev considers.

"There will be tax payments, exporters, most likely, have sold the gain most part", - he has told.

"I think, the market will be affected by taxes and if the buyer has left, at levels of presence of the Central Bank we have nothing to do. I think, the basket can decrease to 35,30, and further - we will look", - Anisimov has told.

The Central Bank has explained weak rouble and inflation splash

Moscow (Рейтер) - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has passed from currency purchases to sales against falling of rouble which he as a whole explains increase in import with postcrisis restoration of demand, and partially - gamble, especially last days, the head of the Central Bank Sergey Ignatyev has told.

He also has promised gradual easing of the basic inflationary factors - growth of the monetary offer and the prices for the foodstuffs owing to a drought, and at discussion of a percentage policy has lowered the promise traditional for last months not to change the rate.
"Last months I would carry to number of the possible reasons of some easing of rouble, first of all, a tendency of decrease in proficiency of the current account of the balance of payments as a result of fast growth of import. An important role, especially last days, purely speculative factors" have played also, - Ignatyev in the State Duma has told.

For a week by September, 22nd the basket has risen in price for rouble, or 3 percent.

"Currency interventions of Bank of Russia last months were very insignificant. For example, in July we have bought only $0,5 billion, in August - $1,3 billion. In September we already sold foreign currency, and from the beginning of month on September, 22nd we have sold $0,6 billion".
Ignatyev has refrained from estimations of a current rate of rouble and has confirmed adherence to the transition plan to free swimming and inflationary таргетированию in the future.

INFLATION OVERTAKES THE RATE

The head of the Central Bank hasn'ted a fast gain of the monetary offer - on third for a year by September, 1st.

"It is much less, than in some precritical years. But much more, than we predicted in the end of the last year. Thus, certain risks of acceleration of inflation are formed and from the monetary offer", - Ignatyev has told.
"Fast growth of monetary weight is connected with two circumstances: first, it is scale purchases by Bank of Russia of foreign currency in the internal currency market in the first months of year. Secondly, it is heavy expenses of means of Reserve fund on financing of deficiency of the federal budget in January-April, 2010", - Ignatyev has told.

Since the summer the Ministry of Finance in search of means of financing of deficiency was switched the internal debt market that Ignatyev "in every possible way supports".

"Thus, the next months we expect delay of growth of monetary weight", - the head of the Central Bank has told.
Other inflationary factor - a poor harvest - also will come to naught in due course, he has promised.

"Inflation growth is connected, first of all, with a drought and a poor harvest... It is represented that the extremely adverse weather conditions, developed in the summer of current year, can render though also appreciable, but the influence limited in time for inflation. To autumn of the next year this influence can be completely settled", - Ignatyev has told and has promised inflation for all 2010 around 8 percent, on the top lath of the forecast of the government of 7-8 percent and at the former forecast of 6-7 percent.

If the new forecast of the Central Bank comes true, the rate of refinancing of the Central Bank will appear less inflations. Since June, 1st, 2010 it is on a historical minimum of 7,75 percent, and the Central Bank promised not to change it till now "the next months". Last such statement has sounded on September, 2nd, however on Friday Ignatyev, speaking about rates, has refrained from the become formulation already traditional for the Central Bank about their invariance "the next months" and from the forecast as a whole.

The Central Bank board of directors about rates is planned for September, 28th.

IMPORT EATS PROFICIENCY

Expensive oil supports proficiency of the account of current operations of the balance of payments of Russia at high level - $58 billion for 8 months that more than twice above, than year before. But the situation changes.

"If in the first quarter monthly average value of balance of current operations exceeded $11 billion last three months - June, July, August - its monthly average value makes about $2,8 billion", - Ignatyev has told, naming a principal cause fast growth of import.

For 8 months import has grown for 30 percent that Ignatyev has explained renewal of economic growth, increase in real incomes of the population and strengthening of rouble till May of current year.

Capital outflow with which Russia has passed through world crisis from the moment of the Georgian war of August, 2008 and visit of Putin "doctor" to a Mechel, proceeds, but smaller rates. According to Ignatyev, for 8 months pure outflow of the private capital has made $12 billion, but all it has had for January.

ARE STABLY DELAYED

Ignatyev hasn'ted growth of credits of banks to the companies and the population for 7 percent from March till September after reduction for 1 percent in January-February.

"Level of the delayed debts on bank system was stabilized, but while the steady tendency to its decrease isn't present", - he has told.

Debtors on беззалоговым to credits, which Central Banks will refuse by the end of the year, there are 7 banks with the general debt of 46 billion the roubles which part is re-structured and translated in the provided. 2,6 billion roubles more debts "hangs" on the bank deprived of the license in February, 2009, Ignatyev has told.

On беззалоговых Central Bank credits has earned 150 billion roubles.

Devaluation: to be or not to be?

The first "have sounded the alarm" on the basis of research of GU ВШЭ in "the Independent newspaper". According to the forecast which is published in the bulletin of the Center of development of the Higher school of economy (ВШЭ), December payments on external debts and import growth will lead to a dollar rise in price to rouble approximately on 20 %. Interrogated by magazine "Personal money" experts so it is dramatic to the forecast haven't concerned, and have explained the reasons of hearings about devaluation.
As writes "НГ", volume payments by the Russian authorities, banks and the companies to non-residents by the end of the year should become the reason of possible devaluation. Besides, experts of the edition expect reduction of balance of current operations that actually means deficiency in the country of foreign currency which arises because of excess of import over export and capital outflow.
It is clear that this year import excess rather possibly. As the reason for that will serve both droughty summer-2010, and growth of import of pharmaceutical production (in connection with introduction of state price control from the list of the vital and necessary medicines), and a great demand of Russians on import clothes, footwear, home appliances and cars.
However all listed reasons earlier by no means it is notable on rouble cost didn't affect. And in the meantime, the director of department of financial and economic examination of company "2trade.ru" Dmitry Pushkarev has declared "НГ": "Citizens can try to keep the savings, having bought for roubles dollars and euro. We recommend to the population to reduce a rouble share in a basket of three currencies and to increase the savings in dollars and euro regarding capital savings, having kept thus necessary and sufficient rouble base for service of consumer current needs. During the third quarter we reduce a share of rouble from current 30 % to target 10 % in a currency basket till the end of 2010", - Pushkarev advises.
Meanwhile, the experts interrogated by "Personal money", serious threat of devaluation don't see and in the majority adhere a rouble exchange rate to oil cost. And also advise, still, to distribute accumulation in a basket of currencies. However, not all unequivocally hold the opinion, which currencies.
So, analyst ИК "TSERIH Kepital Management" Andrey Vernikov considers that the scenario 20 %-s' devaluations, is improbable. "At the prices for oil not below $70 for barrel a multiple currency basket of the Central Bank (55 % in dollars, 45 % in euro) will cost by the end of the year not above 35 roubles. Chances that the prices for oil won't fail, have become stronger after the government of China has declared this month that will increase investments into commodity resources. Debt payments in December really big, but catastrophic in it aren't present anything. The debt part will be paid only, and other part will be restructured (it easy to make at the present prices for oil). The high prices for oil create capital inflow on trading balance - the bases for special anxiety I yet don't see", - he marks.
"It seems to us expedient to put up money in rouble deposits, and also eurodeposits. In US dollars we don't advise an investment because of uncertainty connected with strengthening of positions of democrats after November congressional elections of the USA. The economic policy can essentially exchange, and current languid restoration will stop, the hyperinflation scenario isn't excluded also. Besides economic problems of Europe" on a kind ", and the scale of problems in economy of the USA is unknown till now. In particular, the exact figure on" bad debts "isn't known and it creates obstacles for an investment in dollar. Our choice: 50 % of investments in rouble and 50 % in dollar", - are concluded by A.Vernikov.
The senior financial adviser of legal company "Tax specialist" Tamara Sudareva draws even more interesting conclusion: "It would be desirable to tell about such financial term which is used 50 years in transactions on the stock exchange - noise trade at first. These are the transactions made not by experts-analysts, and the inhabitants operating under the information (noise) received from mass-media. And if to consider that brokers receive the income from any fluctuations at any calm in the market there is a sense similar" a wave "to create. For some reason in the described analysis there are no references to the world prices to oil, namely it influences an export component of trading balance of Russia", - marks T.Sudareva.
"For last year by data oil-price.net this price has grown almost in 1,5 times - with 58 to 87 dollars for barrel. And inflow of dollars to the Russian economy only has increased. I do not think that changes of structure trading and uncommercial (under the international credits, etc.) balance will by all means lead to rouble devaluation - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation keeps a year a rouble exchange rate in the planned frameworks though and in this period of fluctuation too were available", - the adviser of "Tax specialist" marks.
"Therefore precisely it is not necessary, being guided by one publication, to rush to exchange currency. To provide safety of the savings, they precisely shouldn't be held in any one currency, Englishmen in an ancient saying advised" not to hold all eggs in one basket ". From currency fluctuations it is considered the steadiest an investment proportional to" a rouble basket "Central Bank - 50 % in US dollars, 50 % - in euro", - advises T.Sudareva.
The adviser of department Due Diligence NKG "2К Audit - Business consultations" / Morison International Andrey Chernyavsky marks: "In Russia inflation was accelerated, it is clear that in the frameworks defined by the government in 7,5 % it won't keep within, increases any more import, besides, on the end of the year serious payments on an external debt have, therefore the bases for rouble exchange rate decrease are".
However adds: "But despite these negative tendencies of balance of foreign trade doesn't endure sharply deterioration, outflow of the capital following the results of 2010 from the country will be, but not in very serious scales, a conjuncture of foreign markets and the price for oil remain stable. By the end of the year in 20 % it is not expected serious devaluation of rouble, but rouble подеешевеет. As much as possible the rouble can fall in price on 10 % by the end of the year".
Egor Susin, the head of analytical department of the companies working under brand АЛЬПАРИ is solidary with a position of a binding of rouble to oil cost." Devaluation risks for rouble are present, but while I wouldn't begin to dramatize strongly a situation. The risk goes from the extremely ambiguous situation in the market of oil more likely, the prices were fixed in narrow enough range and more actively react to negative factors, ignoring periodically making the way positive. Negative influence on rouble will be rendered also by a drought, acceleration of inflation and growth of import of agricultural production will introduce certain corrective amendments in prospects of the Russian currency. These are normal processes - the rouble really will be inclined to decrease by the end of the year, but to name it operated devaluation it is not necessary, the rouble market gradually becomes more flexible and reflects a real situation, both in internal economy, and in the external economic relations more. That fact that the Russian companies should extinguish enough great volume of external loans a little about what speaks, since the most part of loans рефинансируется. While oil is kept In a range $70 - $80 for barrel, серьeзных risks of sharp devaluation for rouble aren't present. Inflation growth can make external credit resources slightly more expensively, creditors will ask above the rate but while world liquidity is at enough high levels, it is possible not to panic concerning impossibility of refinancing of credits. Levels 32-33 roubles for dollar will be a reference point by the end of the year, to speak about any special operated devaluation I didn't become, there are objective financial streams - they in a present situation have a priority ", - explains E.Susin.
Denis Barabanov, the chief of analytical department IK "the Capital" summarizes Grandis: "I wouldn't began to name possible some easing of rouble by devaluation. It is normal process when currency that becomes cheaper rises in price as the Central Bank became in this question to more flexible. If we look at the crisis period the rouble has quickly enough restored the positions. The specified factors (payment of debts, import growth, local splash in inflation) will really promote rouble exchange rate decrease, however in the long-term period far not the fact that the real rouble exchange rate will be low. The situation will depend in many respects on rates of increase of economy and its appeal in the opinion of world investors. Plus from the prices for oil".

"As to accumulation, first, the diversification question usually faces well-founded citizens whom is what to diversify. If to speak about the small sums, contributions to bank it is the most reasonable - to enclose them in dollars and euro in the ratio 50 on 50. And in roubles the population gets wages", - advises D.Barabanov.

In conclusion of our review of probability of approach of rouble devaluation, it would be desirable to remind and of a regulator position on this point in question. From the beginning of introduction by the Central Bank of smooth devaluation, border бивалютной baskets were supported by Bank of Russia by interventions. Repeatedly the first vice-president of the Central Bank Alexey Uljukaev explained that the financial system of Russia is insufficiently developed and doesn't offer necessary tools of hedging of currency risks, therefore the Central Bank should be smoothed superfluous волатильность.
Thus, as he said, the Central Bank carries out currency intervention, both on borders, and in the floating corridor which is in limits of the fixed wide corridor of cost бивалютной baskets. The Central Bank operates in two circumstances. The first is connected with trading balance of the Russian Federation - very high positive balance of trading balance presses on rouble towards strengthening, therefore the part of currency of the Central Bank gets without dependence from where there is a course - it comes nearer to the bottom border of a corridor or doesn't come nearer.

Other part of interventions, according to A.Uljukaeva, is connected with capital inflow. In this case the Central Bank gets currency near to the bottom border of a currency corridor. Having made certain volume of purchases, the Central Bank shifts the bottom and top borders of a floating corridor downwards (at purchase of $700 million Central Bank shifts a corridor for 5 copecks downwards, at $700 million sale - for 5 copecks upwards).

And while any reasons, and also official statements, however, as well as hearings, from the Central Bank hasn't followed, the system will operate still.

Greenback Sees Gains Following Positive Chinese News

Closing out the week, we see that the USD has made some fairly substantial gains against its main currency rivals following Chinese news that has bolstered investor confidence in the global economic recovery. After again dropping toward that 15 year low reached earlier this week, USD/JPY staged a mild upward correction in afternoon and evening trading. Its currently looking like the pair will close out the week around the 84.20 level. Against the Swiss franc, the greenback jumped over 100 pips in trading today before correcting itself. The pair currently stands at around the 1.0190 level, up over 50 pips from this morning.

The euro has also been able to capitalize on investor risk taking. Both the EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP have seen gains throughout the day, with the later pair moving up almost 70 pips over the course of the day. The exception has been the EUR/USD pair, which after moving up in early morning trading, has since corrected itself. Currently the pair stands at 1.2720.

Next week promises to be a volatile one, as fresh news from the UK, US and euro-zone are likely to heavily impact the market. Traders will want to pay attention to whether any of this news comes in at better than expected rates. If so, the risk taking we saw today will likely continue into next week.

How to check up a banknote on authenticity: where to address, and what to do?

In the beginning of September-2010 the National bank of Ukraine has dispatched the disturbing letter to all commercial banks. In it bankers have warned that in the country the quantity of counterfeit denominations face value 500 гривен 2006 of release has sharply increased.
Counterfeiters put on fakes only two numbers, differing one letter: НХ 57877778 and НВ 57877778. Under these numbers in which it is a lot of семерок and the eights, it is possible to understand, that a denomination - false!
In National bank of Ukraine; speak what independently to distinguish a fake from the present banknote practically it is impossible. To understand, that at фальшивок there are no certain elements of protection, it is possible only in infra-red light. But such detectors are not present even in many shops.
And here banks can define them - if, certainly, they have a necessary equipment.

 « In these counterfeit denominations ultra-violet protection well is executed, - have told in НБУ. - But, fortunately, criminals to reproduce infra-red protection yet have not learned.
We for a long time recommended all banks to get infra-red detectors - at their availability they can reveal fakes. And in shops where there are only ultra-violet detectors, it to make more difficultly ».
In Natsbank advise: if you doubt of authenticity of a denomination can hand over it for examination.

 Where to hand over a banknote for examination?

 To hand over suspicious money it is necessary in the nearest territorial management of Natsbank (addresses can be learned on a site bank.gov.ua or via phone (044) 230-19-60). There it will check up free-of-charge (examination can last till 5 days).
But if the denomination will appear false it will withdraw without compensation of cost. According to the instruction false banknotes are passed in the Interior ministry, and the damage suffered by their owner, is not compensated. It concerns banknotes of any currency - гривен, dollars, euro.

 Whether it is possible to check up in usual bank?


 It is possible to check up money and in usual commercial bank. However, here it is necessary to fork up: banks establish cost of service on check of authenticity of denominations. Sometimes this tariff also makes fixed from 50 copecks up to grivna for each banknote (including currency), others raise a payment in 0,01-0,05 percent from the checked sum.
In what cases of a denomination withdraw?

 And here if you will give a counterfeit denomination to the cashier and it will start to doubt of it according to the instruction of Natsbank at you it will withdraw for examination. If two or more doubtful banknotes will be detected in you, the cashier is obliged to cause militia. In this case you become suspected in selling fakes.


 But remember, that instead of the withdrawn money to you should give out the cash warrant ratified and press of the worker of bank, accepted banknotes for examination, and the information on withdrawal of a banknote for research. After that money will be sent in same territorial managements НБУ where within 5 days will examine.


 Whether it is possible to receive a fake in bank or an ATM?

 In the theory it is impossible, in fact before gas station of an ATM of money pass threefold check. But it appear the swindler the worker of bank, there can be everyone.
If the ATM has given out you a suspicious denomination, address in branch where the bank is established, or cause militia that they already understood as the forgery has got in an ATM.

 Original signs
In infra-red light on a face sheet of a denomination face value in 500 гривен hair, a jacket and a contour of a neck should be visible a part of a portrait of Grigory Skovorody without the person, that is.
The arms, so-called OVI-face value in the form of ромбика to the right of a portrait, as well as fragments of words "УКРАЇНА", "П’ЯТСОТ", a part of the big face value and two bottom points of a tactile convex sign for people with the weakened vision.


 On the back denominations in infra-red light number of the combined face value (separate fragments of number " 500 " which are located on both sides and on a gleam form a designation of face value), an inscription " П’ЯТСОТ ГРИВЕНЬ ", parallelograms of pink color, a part of picture of a pyramid with an eye and слабоконтрастное a building is visible.


 What to do, if on you have palmed off a forgery « If you have a suspicion, that the denominations which have appeared at you in hands, counterfeit it is better to check up at once them in bank, - speak in militia. - differently then you should prove, that you are not involved in their manufacturing and propagation.
And while правоохранители will not trace all chain of moving of this money, the person used a forgery, remains suspected ».

 To a word, for manufacturing, storage, purchase, transportation, transfer and propagation of counterfeit money it is possible to please for a bar for the term of from 3 till 7 years.
If false money go to use in especially large size and from supply of group of criminals - that till 12 years of prison.

The dollar is torn upwards?..

On Monday on Mezhbank the tenders on dollar on ТОМ’е have opened quotations 7,9010/7,9095 грн./долл., by 12:00 the prices have grown up to 7,9115/7,9235 грн./долл. To closing the tenders price levels were established on values 7,9210/7,9260 грн./долл.In spite of the fact that in the USA on September, 6th celebrate Day of Work and the tenders on the American currency were possible only валютированием VOLUME, "green" nevertheless has kept an ascending trend. To it it must be added, that гривня on results of the last week девальвировала on 0,3 % to dollar and on 1,2 % to uniform European currency.
That long time has led to falling … Despite of every possible peripetias, the currency market of Ukraine remained "cool", even in hot years months. All this - consequence of "care" of Natsbank. Since March, in the market surplus of currency was observed.
The offer obviously exceeded demand and if the National bank did not redeem surpluses the dollar for a long time would fall off up to a pre-crisis level. But the regulator persistently continued the policy. Only in March НБУ has redeemed currencies for the sum more than 953 million dollars (for March-August the volume has exceeded 5 billion dollars).
As result, гривня became stronger, the truth, it is not essential - in the end of March the rate made 7,92 грн./долл., and in the end of August - 7,88 грн./долл. In fact it is possible to speak about unofficially fixed rate.
In the mean time, last month summer the situation has changed. Surplus of currency began to run low. For August НБУ has redeemed only 125 million dollars, and in July "proceeds" has made more than 816 million dollars And it that the volume of deals in the market these months essentially did not differ.

 Why inflow of currency was reduced … the Reasons for reduction of volume of currency surplus a little.
The first - deterioration of economic positions of exporters. The pre-crisis situation has repeated - the basic export potential of Ukraine is production of metallurgy and chemistry, but for an increase of standard items it is necessary to increase import of power resources, first of all, the Russian natural gas. But in view of its price, all diligence come to naught.
Break off it "vicious circle" export of the foodstuffs could. But the problem with compensation of the VAT has made the given business unprofitable. Small hopes are concerning export of mechanical engineering. But this area requires the settled industrial communications, than our enterprises cannot brag.
The second reason which "brakes" inflow of currency from abroad, - nervousness pending acceptances of the Tax code. Business already shakes from "trusteeship" of authority. All speaks that fiscal pressure will be toughened, and confusion becomes all help that is traditional for Ukraine.
Therefore businessmen do not hasten to return currency from abroad, preferring to store it far away from the family пенат.

 The similar tendency is observed and in the currency market. Long-term time purchase налички exceeds sale. So, on results of its August it is bought almost on 400 million dollars more, than it is sold (in July - on 149 million dollars).
And the volume of purchase has grown also. So, in July the volume of the sold at hand currency has made nearby 1,9 billion dollars, in August - more than 2,1 billion dollars

 The conclusion arises one - business all invests in наличку and безналичку in fear of introduction "долгоожидаемого" tax press more actively. Most likely, falling гривни will proceed.
All depends on a regulator …

Oil resumed its cheaper

On Friday, on Septembers, 3, oil prices a bit went down after two days of growth. On results auctions on the New York commodity exchange (NYMEX) oil of brand of WTI became cheaper on $0,42 - to $74,60 for a barrel (-0,56%). Oil of brand of Brent on the Throgmorton street of ICE went down on $0,26 - to $76,67 for a barrel (-0,34%). Russian Export Blend Crude Oil (REBCO) on NYMEX also became cheaper on $0,26 to $75,28 for a barrel (-0,35%).Futures on oil of brand of Urals on RTS FORTS on the contrary, a bit grew - on $0,30 to $75,78 for a barrel (+0,39%). On the whole last week oil of WTI on NYMEX went down on $0,57 for a barrel, Brent and REBCO rose in price on $0,02, and the futures on oil of Urals on RTS FORTS grew on $1,07.
According to experts, a fall in oil prices was on Friday determined new portion of negative state information by the USA economy - the index of business activity was on Friday published in the sector of services for August which went down to 51,5% (in July - 54,3%). In addition, pressure on a market continue to render the uttery high supplies of oil in the USA (already two weeks they repose on a record from January, 1983 levels).On Wednesday the ministry of energy the USA reported about next growth of supplies of oil in this country - on 3,4 million barrels at small reduction of stocks of petrol (on 200 thousand barrels) and distillates - fuel-oil and fire-box fuel oil (on 700 thousand barrels).
These information as a result outweighed positive information about reduction of unemployment, increase of number of transactions on the purchase-sale of habitation on 5,2% and growth of production index in August to 56,3. In addition, on September, 6 in the USA a holiday is a day of labour which traditionally seasonal reduction of demand follows on petrol.However much a fall in oil prices some restrained weakening of dollar the USA in relation to an euro (it usually results in a nominirovannykh in dollars price increase on goods and services) to the level $1,2898. During a nightly session on Nymex/access oil of WTI continued to fall in price - by 7.15 PM CST it became cheaper on $0,39 to $74,21 for a barrel.