Russian banks on the basis of 2011 population increased lending by 36%. Central Bank calls these rates impressive, but is concerned that citizens would be difficult to repay debts, and this implies an increase in risks for banks.
The volume of consumer lending by Russian banks for the last year increased by 35.9% compared to 2010. This was announced by deputy chairman Alexei Simanovsky. In 2010, lending to individuals grew by 14.3%. Loans to non-financial sector of the economy last year grew by 26% against 12.1% in 2010. "Our forecast on credit growth of 20-25% were pessimistic and conservative. In the middle and second half of 2011 the process of being rapidly developed, "- quotes" Prime "Mr. Simanovsky. According to him, data on growth rates of lending to "show, on the one hand, the impressive growth, and with another - somewhat wary and attracted attention with regard to implications for banks, including the population, which at some point it becomes difficult to pay debts , which implies an increase in the risks taken by banks. " This year, the Central Bank forecasts a more moderate growth in lending. "In the retail and will be repeated if in 2011, it is unlikely that it will be closed", - said Mr. Simanovsky.
Growth rates of deposits in 2011, however, were lower than the year before - 20.9% vs. 31.2%. In this case the December growth was a record 7.3%. However, this dynamic was better than expected the Central Bank, which predicted that by the end of 2011 the growth in deposits will be at 15%. According to Mr. Simanovsky, so the rapid growth of deposits was the result of changes in interest rate policy of banks. For example, the Savings Bank, a policy in respect of rates which is an indicator for the market in November 2011 raised rates on savings instruments (maximum rate on ruble deposits was then 7.25% APR). This year also began with the Savings Bank raising rates on all instruments to raise funds from citizens on average by one percentage point. At the end of last year raised the deposit rates and the second largest retail bank VTB 24.
Total assets of Russian banks increased in 2011 to 23.1% against 14.9% a year earlier, and up to the banks earned a record 848 billion rubles. profit under RAS, said Mr. Simanovsky. Almost 40% of the total net profit falls on Sberbank. In 2011, he earned a record 321.9 billion rubles. against the 183 billion rubles. in 2010.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
The boom tips on payments market
Representatives of the payment systems MasterCard, Visa and the "Golden Crown" announced the creation of the Association "The National Payments Council," which should combine the operators of payment systems and remittances, as well as banks. Meanwhile, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs has already obtained the agreement of several large banks to become one of the founders of a similar organization that invited the same participants, followed by ready to take away from "rationing" and the name of the association.
Yesterday the head of the "Golden Crown", as well as Visa and MasterCard in Russia has officially announced the creation of the association, which "will contribute to the development of Russia's payment industry" that the founders of the organization to substantiate the negative market statistics of non-cash payments. "Today, the share of non-cash payments in the retail market in Russia is only 7% of the total, while in mature markets, it is 30-40%," - said General Director of Visa in Russia, CIS and South Eastern Europe, Stephen Parker said.
The Council intends to not only contribute to the emergence of new payment products and to study the state of the market of payment systems, but also to participate in the development of regulations and bylaws that will appear in the Federal Law 161-FZ "On the national payment system", which entered into force on September 29, 2011 year. Actually, as stressed by participants of the press conference, the adoption of this law, the original version of which contained some "distortions", and was the starting point for bringing together of competitors. "There is a blessing in disguise" - assessed in connection with the adoption of the law the head of Russia's Ilya Riaby MasterCard. The first members of the advisory council are going to interact with the central bank and government. "Prior to enactment of the NPC's leading market players, the card payment system did not have a supervisory authority, - says Vice-President of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia Oleg Ivanov .- now monitoring their activities engaged in securities, which means that they need to lobby for their interests." In this regard, NPC - Narrow this association, he added. The Bank of Russia praised the creation of NPCs briefly: his work "can have a positive impact on the development of this industry," leaving without comment the Council's intention to actively influence his work.
At the same time a preliminary agreement to participate in the Supervisory Board of the Central Bank profit partnership created to bring together the entire market of cashless payments already received the RSPP. It is assumed that the Supervisory Board in partnership will also include representatives of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA confirms deputy Andrei Melnikov), Federal Financial Markets Service, Ministry of Finance, law enforcement, national security and the Ministry of Communications. On this "Y" said vice president of RSPP, Alexander Murychev, chairman of the organizing committee of the nonprofit partnership. "The signatures of the founders, among which will include Sberbank, VTB, Alfa Bank, PSB, Deutsche Bank and other major actors in the banking market, has already been collected. We are preparing documents to file for registration with the Ministry of Justice, we can only resolve the issue with the name of the organization," - he said. According to him, the name may be different from the name of "small" NES on a word or have to change yourself "small" NPS, working partnership will be officially launched in February. In total, according to Mr. Murychev their participation in the future the council confirmed the approximately 50 participants, including providers of cellular and trade unions.
Founders of "card" NPC called potential participants of the organization of the number of banks declined, stating, however, that "the negotiations on this subject being". Bankers invited to this association and intending to join it, "b" is not found. In theory, nothing prevents them to enter at once into two councils, but against the goals and objectives of the "big" NPS is hardly necessary, although the RSPP and denies the possibility of competition between the two Councils. "The composition of the founders and the number of participants in NPC, the initiative for which was largely owned by business organizations, with representation of a wide range of market participants, suggests that it will be much more powerful organization", - stated the deputy chairman of Alfa Bank, Vladimir Senin, confirming that bank management and board of directors decided to enter one of the founders of the nonprofit partnership.
Yesterday the head of the "Golden Crown", as well as Visa and MasterCard in Russia has officially announced the creation of the association, which "will contribute to the development of Russia's payment industry" that the founders of the organization to substantiate the negative market statistics of non-cash payments. "Today, the share of non-cash payments in the retail market in Russia is only 7% of the total, while in mature markets, it is 30-40%," - said General Director of Visa in Russia, CIS and South Eastern Europe, Stephen Parker said.
The Council intends to not only contribute to the emergence of new payment products and to study the state of the market of payment systems, but also to participate in the development of regulations and bylaws that will appear in the Federal Law 161-FZ "On the national payment system", which entered into force on September 29, 2011 year. Actually, as stressed by participants of the press conference, the adoption of this law, the original version of which contained some "distortions", and was the starting point for bringing together of competitors. "There is a blessing in disguise" - assessed in connection with the adoption of the law the head of Russia's Ilya Riaby MasterCard. The first members of the advisory council are going to interact with the central bank and government. "Prior to enactment of the NPC's leading market players, the card payment system did not have a supervisory authority, - says Vice-President of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia Oleg Ivanov .- now monitoring their activities engaged in securities, which means that they need to lobby for their interests." In this regard, NPC - Narrow this association, he added. The Bank of Russia praised the creation of NPCs briefly: his work "can have a positive impact on the development of this industry," leaving without comment the Council's intention to actively influence his work.
At the same time a preliminary agreement to participate in the Supervisory Board of the Central Bank profit partnership created to bring together the entire market of cashless payments already received the RSPP. It is assumed that the Supervisory Board in partnership will also include representatives of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA confirms deputy Andrei Melnikov), Federal Financial Markets Service, Ministry of Finance, law enforcement, national security and the Ministry of Communications. On this "Y" said vice president of RSPP, Alexander Murychev, chairman of the organizing committee of the nonprofit partnership. "The signatures of the founders, among which will include Sberbank, VTB, Alfa Bank, PSB, Deutsche Bank and other major actors in the banking market, has already been collected. We are preparing documents to file for registration with the Ministry of Justice, we can only resolve the issue with the name of the organization," - he said. According to him, the name may be different from the name of "small" NES on a word or have to change yourself "small" NPS, working partnership will be officially launched in February. In total, according to Mr. Murychev their participation in the future the council confirmed the approximately 50 participants, including providers of cellular and trade unions.
Founders of "card" NPC called potential participants of the organization of the number of banks declined, stating, however, that "the negotiations on this subject being". Bankers invited to this association and intending to join it, "b" is not found. In theory, nothing prevents them to enter at once into two councils, but against the goals and objectives of the "big" NPS is hardly necessary, although the RSPP and denies the possibility of competition between the two Councils. "The composition of the founders and the number of participants in NPC, the initiative for which was largely owned by business organizations, with representation of a wide range of market participants, suggests that it will be much more powerful organization", - stated the deputy chairman of Alfa Bank, Vladimir Senin, confirming that bank management and board of directors decided to enter one of the founders of the nonprofit partnership.
Unicredit is testing investors' confidence
One of the largest banks in Europe - the Italian banking group Unicredit - announced plans for a massive deployment of asset-bond of € 25 billion until conditions in the debt market can still attract the attention of investors, the bank intends to use the funds to shore up its capital.
As stated in the notice for Unicredit Luxembourg Stock Exchange, the bank intends to offer € 25 billion in bonds backed by cash flow from mortgages and other loans to retail customers. The money will go to strengthen the capital of the Italian bank financing and the most important operations. Analysts say that after mid-January the rating agency S & P downgrades two notches credit rating of Italy by two notches to BBB +, Italian banks were in a difficult situation, because now there may well be similar to rating downgrades of Italy, on the other two agencies - Moody `s and Fitch, who still retain that country ratings at A2 and A + respectively, and then reduce the rating of the largest companies of the financial sector. In addition, many European banks, including Unicredit, to strengthen its core capital under the new rules of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel 3), which are beginning to come into effect from 2013.
Recall September 12, 2010 Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced to tighten banking regulation, known as "Basel-3 '. Major improvements to the capital requirements for banks.
Share of Tier I capital in the total minimum required capital of the bank recommended an increase from the current 4% to 6%. The share of the highest quality (able to absorb losses) of equity capital in the first level should be raised from 2% to 4.5%.
In addition, banks require the creation of the so-called back-buffer Tier in the amount of additional 2.5%, which actually raises capital adequacy ratio of the first level to 8.5%. Creating a capital buffer will allow banks to insure against large losses in the event of future crises. At the same minimum level of overall capital adequacy remains at 8% of bank assets weighted by risk level, but the de facto capital, taking into account the buffer reaches 10.5%. The transition to the new requirements will be gradual - from 2013 to 2019. The analytical report issued a few days after the publication of new rules, Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2010-2012 the major banks increase their capital by a total of € 112 billion (see http://kommersant.ru/doc/1524454 .) In addition, last year the European banking management recommended that the Italian bank to raise capital in the amount of € 8 billion by the end of June this year.
Urgent need to attract large funds has forced the bank in late January to announce the release of bonds for € 7,5 млрд discounted 43%. That is why the new placement of Unicredit especially in view of deteriorating investor sentiment about the immediate prospects of the eurozone is seen by analysts and market players as a sort of test for investor confidence. "Everyone is watching the deal as Unicredit for a litmus test, showing the likelihood of a successful capital raising in the future" - said The New York Times on condition of anonymity, one of the top managers of major European bank.
The reaction of investors to raise capital for new Unicredit in a difficult market was nervous - in early trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Bank's shares rose in price by 3.5%, after a half hour climb and lost even went to a small minus, but by the middle of the trading session again added 1.5% to the closing price the previous day.
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As stated in the notice for Unicredit Luxembourg Stock Exchange, the bank intends to offer € 25 billion in bonds backed by cash flow from mortgages and other loans to retail customers. The money will go to strengthen the capital of the Italian bank financing and the most important operations. Analysts say that after mid-January the rating agency S & P downgrades two notches credit rating of Italy by two notches to BBB +, Italian banks were in a difficult situation, because now there may well be similar to rating downgrades of Italy, on the other two agencies - Moody `s and Fitch, who still retain that country ratings at A2 and A + respectively, and then reduce the rating of the largest companies of the financial sector. In addition, many European banks, including Unicredit, to strengthen its core capital under the new rules of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel 3), which are beginning to come into effect from 2013.
Recall September 12, 2010 Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced to tighten banking regulation, known as "Basel-3 '. Major improvements to the capital requirements for banks.
Share of Tier I capital in the total minimum required capital of the bank recommended an increase from the current 4% to 6%. The share of the highest quality (able to absorb losses) of equity capital in the first level should be raised from 2% to 4.5%.
In addition, banks require the creation of the so-called back-buffer Tier in the amount of additional 2.5%, which actually raises capital adequacy ratio of the first level to 8.5%. Creating a capital buffer will allow banks to insure against large losses in the event of future crises. At the same minimum level of overall capital adequacy remains at 8% of bank assets weighted by risk level, but the de facto capital, taking into account the buffer reaches 10.5%. The transition to the new requirements will be gradual - from 2013 to 2019. The analytical report issued a few days after the publication of new rules, Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2010-2012 the major banks increase their capital by a total of € 112 billion (see http://kommersant.ru/doc/1524454 .) In addition, last year the European banking management recommended that the Italian bank to raise capital in the amount of € 8 billion by the end of June this year.
Urgent need to attract large funds has forced the bank in late January to announce the release of bonds for € 7,5 млрд discounted 43%. That is why the new placement of Unicredit especially in view of deteriorating investor sentiment about the immediate prospects of the eurozone is seen by analysts and market players as a sort of test for investor confidence. "Everyone is watching the deal as Unicredit for a litmus test, showing the likelihood of a successful capital raising in the future" - said The New York Times on condition of anonymity, one of the top managers of major European bank.
The reaction of investors to raise capital for new Unicredit in a difficult market was nervous - in early trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Bank's shares rose in price by 3.5%, after a half hour climb and lost even went to a small minus, but by the middle of the trading session again added 1.5% to the closing price the previous day.
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Ruspetro erupted in London
How the "Y" in London held its first IPO in the new year a Russian company. Ruspetro successfully carried out the failed December 2011 public offering on the LSE. Over 30% of investors paid about $ 275 million, estimated the company at $ 1 billion, while last year it expected a $ 1.2-1.5 billion
On Wednesday morning the book was closed applications for 30% of independent oil companies Ruspetro, housed on the London Stock Exchange, sources told "Kommersant". The papers were evaluated by investors of approximately $ 275 million is slightly less than expected amount, said one of the interlocutors, "Y", but "the company is satisfied with the results."
Ruspetro tried to hold IPO late last year, but then slipped location: foreign investors showed no interest in the securities because of the high leverage of the company and the mass protests against the results of State Duma elections in Russia (see "Kommersant" on December 23, 2011 years). In general Ruspetro estimated at about $ 1 billion, taking into account the debt, which amounts to about $ 350 million, the source said, "b". The main creditors of the company - Savings and gas "Itera", in which it has acquired the license for three projects in the Khanty-Mansiysk in 2008. The main assets Ruspetro - Field East Inginskoe, Pottynsko-Inginskoe and Polyanovskoe with total reserves of 2.1 billion barrels of oil. In 2011, mining them was 4.5 thousand barrels per day. In December, the sources of "b" says that the company is estimated at $ 1.2-1.5 billion
Means the company needs to develop, explained sides "b" over the next five years it is going to produce 3.5 million tons of oil per year. In addition, Ruspetro also need to pay on their loans. In the IPO shares part of the additional issue. The main owners of the company are former head of the Federal Grid Company Andrew Rappaport and his deputy, Alexander Chistyakov. Among the shareholders of a fund Ruspetro Altera Capital of the former deputy head of the Ministry of Economy and government staff Kirill Androsov and Sberbank.
On Wednesday morning the book was closed applications for 30% of independent oil companies Ruspetro, housed on the London Stock Exchange, sources told "Kommersant". The papers were evaluated by investors of approximately $ 275 million is slightly less than expected amount, said one of the interlocutors, "Y", but "the company is satisfied with the results."
Ruspetro tried to hold IPO late last year, but then slipped location: foreign investors showed no interest in the securities because of the high leverage of the company and the mass protests against the results of State Duma elections in Russia (see "Kommersant" on December 23, 2011 years). In general Ruspetro estimated at about $ 1 billion, taking into account the debt, which amounts to about $ 350 million, the source said, "b". The main creditors of the company - Savings and gas "Itera", in which it has acquired the license for three projects in the Khanty-Mansiysk in 2008. The main assets Ruspetro - Field East Inginskoe, Pottynsko-Inginskoe and Polyanovskoe with total reserves of 2.1 billion barrels of oil. In 2011, mining them was 4.5 thousand barrels per day. In December, the sources of "b" says that the company is estimated at $ 1.2-1.5 billion
Means the company needs to develop, explained sides "b" over the next five years it is going to produce 3.5 million tons of oil per year. In addition, Ruspetro also need to pay on their loans. In the IPO shares part of the additional issue. The main owners of the company are former head of the Federal Grid Company Andrew Rappaport and his deputy, Alexander Chistyakov. Among the shareholders of a fund Ruspetro Altera Capital of the former deputy head of the Ministry of Economy and government staff Kirill Androsov and Sberbank.
Exchange to hedge the foreign exchange market
Joint RTS, MICEX Stock Exchange is taking new steps to insurance against risk of default on the foreign exchange market. Since February, increased capital requirements for market players, as well as the amount of insurance contributions to cover the risks.
On February 22, 2012 National Clearing Centre (NCC), which is a subsidiary of the MICEX, RTS, increases the demands on the participants to cover the risks of his foundation, said the exchange. Now, the minimum amount of capital for the participants, banks will rise from € 5 million to € 10 million (400 million rubles.), And for non-bank credit institutions - with € 0,5 million to € 5 million (200 million rubles.). The amount of the premium for each member of the fund will increase from $ 60 thousand to $ 80 thousand
Provisions for risks are being formed in the amount of $ 14.16 million in payments he provided to bidders in the foreign exchange market, where their counterparties do not fulfill their obligations under the transactions of buying and selling currencies. So far, payments from this fund were not made, since the foreign exchange market, there are other tools to reduce risks - preddeponirovanie funds and margin calls, etc. Insurance against risk is not the only reason for the participation of brokers in the fund. Participants have the opportunity to sell stock for a limited amount secured by the fund, with no collateral covering transactions. After the party fund exceeds this amount, all other transactions conducted by the general rules of trading - with the bail.
As explained, "b" on the MICEX, RTS, the decision to increase capital requirements for currency trading participants and their contributions to the insurance fund a number of reasons. Since January 1, Central Bank increased the minimum size requirements for banks' capital to 90 million rubles. to 180 million rubles. to improve the stability of the banking system and stock exchange operates in line with the same trend. "Common volatility in global financial markets makes increased demands to maintain the same level of security fund, which is an important component of overall risk management system", - said the representative of the exchange. "Foreign exchange market is growing - CEO adds," Zerich Capital Management "Alexander Shcheglov, - so the NCC had to revise its risk-management in this area." In 2010, the total volume of transactions in foreign currency on the MICEX amounted to 79.5 trillion rubles. During 2011 the combined market registered a total volume of the foreign exchange market 210 trillion rubles.
Mr. Shcheglov suggests that NFP measures must relate to the future liberalization of the foreign exchange market: "From this year the opportunity to trade the forex market will be all stock market participants, not just the banks, so in order to filter the market from the market players are insolvent to increase the requirements for participants in the fund. "
According to market participants, new requirements will not reduce the number of fund participants. "The current members will continue their presence in the fund - increase the amount of fees and capital requirements will not be problem for them" - says Mr. Shcheglov. In large banks, trading in the forex market, it is confirmed. Andrew Skobelin, head of foreign exchange transactions in international markets PSB (capital - 57 billion rubles.) Stated: "We can easily increase your insurance premium." On the other hand, medium-sized banks will continue to trade currencies without the participation of the insurance fund. In the Russian national bank (the capital - 321 million rubles). "Kommersant" said the bank is not a member of the fund and cover the risks involved in currency trading on the Stock Exchange on the same basis.
On February 22, 2012 National Clearing Centre (NCC), which is a subsidiary of the MICEX, RTS, increases the demands on the participants to cover the risks of his foundation, said the exchange. Now, the minimum amount of capital for the participants, banks will rise from € 5 million to € 10 million (400 million rubles.), And for non-bank credit institutions - with € 0,5 million to € 5 million (200 million rubles.). The amount of the premium for each member of the fund will increase from $ 60 thousand to $ 80 thousand
Provisions for risks are being formed in the amount of $ 14.16 million in payments he provided to bidders in the foreign exchange market, where their counterparties do not fulfill their obligations under the transactions of buying and selling currencies. So far, payments from this fund were not made, since the foreign exchange market, there are other tools to reduce risks - preddeponirovanie funds and margin calls, etc. Insurance against risk is not the only reason for the participation of brokers in the fund. Participants have the opportunity to sell stock for a limited amount secured by the fund, with no collateral covering transactions. After the party fund exceeds this amount, all other transactions conducted by the general rules of trading - with the bail.
As explained, "b" on the MICEX, RTS, the decision to increase capital requirements for currency trading participants and their contributions to the insurance fund a number of reasons. Since January 1, Central Bank increased the minimum size requirements for banks' capital to 90 million rubles. to 180 million rubles. to improve the stability of the banking system and stock exchange operates in line with the same trend. "Common volatility in global financial markets makes increased demands to maintain the same level of security fund, which is an important component of overall risk management system", - said the representative of the exchange. "Foreign exchange market is growing - CEO adds," Zerich Capital Management "Alexander Shcheglov, - so the NCC had to revise its risk-management in this area." In 2010, the total volume of transactions in foreign currency on the MICEX amounted to 79.5 trillion rubles. During 2011 the combined market registered a total volume of the foreign exchange market 210 trillion rubles.
Mr. Shcheglov suggests that NFP measures must relate to the future liberalization of the foreign exchange market: "From this year the opportunity to trade the forex market will be all stock market participants, not just the banks, so in order to filter the market from the market players are insolvent to increase the requirements for participants in the fund. "
According to market participants, new requirements will not reduce the number of fund participants. "The current members will continue their presence in the fund - increase the amount of fees and capital requirements will not be problem for them" - says Mr. Shcheglov. In large banks, trading in the forex market, it is confirmed. Andrew Skobelin, head of foreign exchange transactions in international markets PSB (capital - 57 billion rubles.) Stated: "We can easily increase your insurance premium." On the other hand, medium-sized banks will continue to trade currencies without the participation of the insurance fund. In the Russian national bank (the capital - 321 million rubles). "Kommersant" said the bank is not a member of the fund and cover the risks involved in currency trading on the Stock Exchange on the same basis.
Thomas Cook cuts a weak link
The company intends to Thomas Cook to close 200 of its offices in the UK and reduce the fleet to six aircraft. This was a company must formally announce on Thursday, when an annual report will present results of a thorough revision of the British operations - the weak link in the assets of the tour operator.
As reported by the newspaper The Sunday Times, the second largest in Europe, the tour operator Thomas Cook will close about 200 branches operating in the UK. The British company will announce it when the general will report results for the year and the British operations in particular. These operations are the weakest in the portfolio of Thomas Cook, which generate more revenue Scandinavia and Germany and the UK market which sells 22.5 million package tours annually. This year, after merging with the Co-operative Travel company has already warned of the possibility of closing 75 branches of the British. But now, this figure increases to 200, and then the tour operator will remain in the UK around 1,000 branches. In connection with the closings will be either reduced or transferred to other offices around 1,000 employees.
This year was generally the worst in company history. From the beginning, the company has already taken three warnings about profits, and in early August, the company abruptly left the CEO Manny Fontenla-Novoa. All these circumstances have not helped to strengthen investors' confidence, and since the beginning of the shares of Thomas Cook fell by almost 80%. In such deplorable results of the company blamed the troubled situation in such popular tourist destinations such as Egypt, as well as slowing down the British economy.
As analysts had expected, in part accounts for the year, the company announced significant reductions, including the fleet. Thus, the 41 aircraft scheduled tour operator to cut 6. This news has caused outrage unions who threatened to strike. It may also be announced on the revision of the brand portfolio Thomas Cook. Can be sold to the Indian operations of foreign exchange, the share of air traffic control service of the United Kingdom, several hotels, as well as a number of assets which will enable the company to opt out of cheap tours, not yielding a significant return.
As reported by the newspaper The Sunday Times, the second largest in Europe, the tour operator Thomas Cook will close about 200 branches operating in the UK. The British company will announce it when the general will report results for the year and the British operations in particular. These operations are the weakest in the portfolio of Thomas Cook, which generate more revenue Scandinavia and Germany and the UK market which sells 22.5 million package tours annually. This year, after merging with the Co-operative Travel company has already warned of the possibility of closing 75 branches of the British. But now, this figure increases to 200, and then the tour operator will remain in the UK around 1,000 branches. In connection with the closings will be either reduced or transferred to other offices around 1,000 employees.
This year was generally the worst in company history. From the beginning, the company has already taken three warnings about profits, and in early August, the company abruptly left the CEO Manny Fontenla-Novoa. All these circumstances have not helped to strengthen investors' confidence, and since the beginning of the shares of Thomas Cook fell by almost 80%. In such deplorable results of the company blamed the troubled situation in such popular tourist destinations such as Egypt, as well as slowing down the British economy.
As analysts had expected, in part accounts for the year, the company announced significant reductions, including the fleet. Thus, the 41 aircraft scheduled tour operator to cut 6. This news has caused outrage unions who threatened to strike. It may also be announced on the revision of the brand portfolio Thomas Cook. Can be sold to the Indian operations of foreign exchange, the share of air traffic control service of the United Kingdom, several hotels, as well as a number of assets which will enable the company to opt out of cheap tours, not yielding a significant return.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
In Kazakhstan the new banknote is let out by face value of 5 thousand tenge
In Kazakhstan banknotes by face value in five thousand tenge (34 dollars) with the changed design are let out, transfers Tengrinews.kz referring to to the press-service of National bank of Republic Kazakhstan.
The banknote has been let out on December, 30th, 2011. It is made on a paper in the size 144х76 millimeters. On face sheet red color and vertical images prevail. On this party "Cossack Eli", flying pigeons and leopards settle down a monument. In the top part of a banknote the State Emblem and a flag are represented.
On the back red-dark blue color and horizontal images the main thing from which is the contour of a card of Kazakhstan dominates. In the banknote foreground the top of a monument of Independence, a building hotels "Kazakhstans" located in Almaty, against mountains of Zailijsky Ala Tau "are represented. Also in the right part holographic strips with the image of apples and pigeons are placed.
Besides, since January, 7th, 2012 the Natsbank has released the memorable coins devoted to century from the date of a birth outstanding state and public figure Dinmuhameda Kunaeva. In total 500 tenges and 50 thousand coins from an alloy a German silver face value 50 tenges have been let out five thousand silver coins by face value.
Let's add that the memorable silver coin has the octahedron form. On its back in the central part the volume image of Kunaeva against its stylized profile is located. Under the image - the facsimile of the signature and number "2012" designating year of stamping. In the right part on a circle an inscription "D.A.Konaev 100 жыл" in a state language and a logo of National bank of Republic Kazakhstan. On the back coins in 50 tenges the profile of Kunaeva, in the bottom part - numbers "1912-2012" designating date of birth and year of stamping of a coin also is represented.
Forecasts about financial crisis of 2012 have under themselves the bases
With forecasts of the American analyst of Charles Nennera about a financial collapse of 2012 the Kazakhstan experts agree. They have put forward the versions of development of world economic system at session of club of Institute of political decisions (Ieper), correspondent Tengrinews.kz has informed.
2012 will bring to the world, the Kazakhstan analysts, a hyperinflation and heavy food crisis consider. "Oil can rise in price to 150-180 dollars for barrel, the foodstuffs will rise in price. Inflow of money will increase, but inflation will lower this trend, levels", - the representative of Association frontier has declared cooperation in Kazakhstan to Marat Shibutov.
In the grocery market, according to analysts, it is possible to observe negative processes already now. "The present problems of crisis haven't been solved", - to such conclusion the speaker has come. As all over the world, and in Kazakhstan. "Here at us the representative of pension funds sits, at us problems of our financial institutions, banks here have been solved, they have been cleared of debts?", - Shibutov has asked a question during discussion. The representative of a pension fund invited to session of club Ieper, has answered negatively. "Isn't present! Absolutely, - Shibutov has continued. - the First wave of crisis have put out money from National fund, but the ulcer remained".
The theme of 2012 was lifted by an analyst known all over the world Charles Nenner. On air of TV channel Fox Business he has unexpectedly declared that in it, time and again named fatal, year there will be a crash of stock markets, Dow Johns's index will fall off to 5000 points, all financial actives will fall, the full economic collapse in other words approaches. And the global military conflict becomes the reason for it, under the sensational calculation of Nennera.
The business world in the majority doesn't call in question the forecast of an analyst as it has a reputation for the talented mathematician not inclined to jokes and shockings, its research center gives the most exact forecasts, it has predicted including financial crisis of 2008 year.
Crisis of 2012
Why 2012
The dollar leaves, but slowly and gradually. When the end to it «green змию» will come? I consider that till 2012 the dollar remains the basic reserve currency and anything especially terrible won't occur to it. Why to 2012? Because this year at once there are many the major political events.
In 2012 will pass XVIII congress of Communist party of China.
In 2012 the new president of the Russian Federation will be selected.
Each of these events is capable to give to a political situation a new intrigue, to set a vector of movement and to change alignment of forces. From this time point very conveniently to start to spend a new political line. The basic struggle also will be dated for this date. Struggle for dollar and struggle against it. Struggle for domination on a planet. Struggle for control over thawing natural resources.
Both parties will be obliged to define the further strategy. After all in November, 2012 will choose also the next US president. The cataclysm of dollar if it is, should occur so that for it the one who receives today a world Nobel Prize could answer. It is impossible earlier, will be late later. After all possible crash of the American dream, as well as reorganization, should have the author.
... One more disappointment of the American history. And as well all began!
... Look narrowly by this year more attentively. More many crossings can find...
... Recently I went to the cinema. And gaging at an input in a cinema. Hollywood too so considers. From this year mankind life can start to change. And can and not begin. Struggle goes today, by 2012 it will be possible to sum it up.
Here therefore I also consider that the cataclysm of dollar won't be till 2012.
The dollar leaves, but slowly and gradually. When the end to it «green змию» will come? I consider that till 2012 the dollar remains the basic reserve currency and anything especially terrible won't occur to it. Why to 2012? Because this year at once there are many the major political events.
In 2012 will pass XVIII congress of Communist party of China.
In 2012 the new president of the Russian Federation will be selected.
Each of these events is capable to give to a political situation a new intrigue, to set a vector of movement and to change alignment of forces. From this time point very conveniently to start to spend a new political line. The basic struggle also will be dated for this date. Struggle for dollar and struggle against it. Struggle for domination on a planet. Struggle for control over thawing natural resources.
Both parties will be obliged to define the further strategy. After all in November, 2012 will choose also the next US president. The cataclysm of dollar if it is, should occur so that for it the one who receives today a world Nobel Prize could answer. It is impossible earlier, will be late later. After all possible crash of the American dream, as well as reorganization, should have the author.
... One more disappointment of the American history. And as well all began!
... Look narrowly by this year more attentively. More many crossings can find...
... Recently I went to the cinema. And gaging at an input in a cinema. Hollywood too so considers. From this year mankind life can start to change. And can and not begin. Struggle goes today, by 2012 it will be possible to sum it up.
Here therefore I also consider that the cataclysm of dollar won't be till 2012.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Monetary and credit crises
The credit promotes occurrence and an aggravation of periodic monetary and credit crises. These are sharp shocks in the monetary and credit sphere, overproduction generated by cyclic crises or extreme economic and political events. Cyclic monetary and credit crises as a harbinger and display of "any general industrial both trading crisis» and special crises differ, «which center of movement is the monetary capital, and direct sphere — banks, stock exchanges, the finance».
Classical cyclic monetary and credit crisis проявт ляется first of all in reduction of the credit and in interest rate increase. Characteristic for an economic crisis overproduction of the goods complicates their realization. Capitalists refuse to sell the goods account from fear of bankruptcy of buyers. In process of delay of a circulation of the capital demand for loans of money for payment of the consumed goods, payments of a salary amplifies and, the main thing, for payment of promissory notes, Appears a tendency to growth of debts of the enterprises. But banks can't satisfy demand for the credit for some reasons: 1) at monetary and credit crises contributions are withdrawn from credit institutions quite often in a mass order; 2) businessmen out of time repay loans, and in case of bankruptcy in general refuse to return them; 3) in the conditions of instability banks are afraid to increase long-term investments of capitals.
Difficulties of reception of the credit conduct to curtailment of production. The delay in return inflow to the enterprises of a monetary gain involves non-payments. As a result of bankruptcies of the enterprises and banks the part of promissory notes and credit volume is violently liquidated decreases. As an example bankruptcies of 10 thousand credit institutions can serve in the USA in 1929 1933
In conditions when the credit is reduced, and the trust to credit money is undermined, begins a pursuit of the valid money. At gold monometallism it caused attacks to banks of issue with the requirement of exchange of credit money of gold. After cancellation of the gold standard flight from paper and credit money to gold is shown in buying up and тезаврации yellow metal.
Insolvency of borrowers, refusal of banks and exporters to grant the loan from fear of bankruptcies cause reduction of the international credit and export of capitals that strengthens an unbalance of balances of payments. During a world economic crisis 1929-1933 many states (Germany, a number of the countries of Latin America) have appeared insolvent.
Crisis of overproduction, bankruptcy of banks and the enterprises cause sharp falling of courses of securities and a panic at stock exchanges. The governments are compelled to close these stock exchanges periodically.
Evolving from overproduction economic crises, monetary and credit crises aggravate them. Bankruptcies, depreciation of the real capital, liquidation of the enterprises, curtailment of production and employment clear away a way for new economic lifting and credit expansion.
Special monetary and credit crises arise under the influence of infringements in monetary and credit sphere in connection with extreme economic and political events, acts of nature, wars.
So, the poor harvest of 1839 in England has caused a rise in prices for wheat and increase in its import from abroad. The passive of the balance of payments caused by it has led to the gold leak which stocks were reduced with 10,5. Million ф. The item in the beginning of 1838 to 2,4 million ф. The item in August, 1839 With a view of restraint of leak of gold has been raised discount rate with 4 to 6 %.
Usually wars also cause monetary and credit crises. In the First World War mass withdrawal of contributions from financial institutions, increase of interest rates, sales of securities and decrease in their courses was observed. Some banks have temporarily been closed.
Sometimes the legislation aggravates monetary and credit crisis. For example, rigid restriction of issue of banknotes depending on official gold reserves of the country (Robert Pilja's Certificate of 1844) has strengthened «monetary hunger» in 1847, 1857, 1866
Though special monetary and credit crises arise usually under the influence of infringements in monetary and credit sphere in the absence of an economic crisis, their reasons are caused by a condition of sphere of manufacture. They anticipate those infringements which should be found out as a result of the events causing monetary and credit crises.
In the conditions of modern capitalism the parity between cyclic and special monetary and credit crises changes. It is connected with change of a course of economic crises in the conditions of state-monopoly capitalism. Modern monetary and credit crises, as a rule, intertwine with cyclic crises of overproduction, and такжэ with economic recessions. However sharp shocks in monetary and credit sphere occur at times and in economic lifting.
For example, depreciation of money, bankruptcies of firms and banks, falling of courses of securities at stock exchanges have amplified in the energy crisis which has begun in 1973 though average rate of economic growth in a number promysh-lenno the developed countries was above, than in 1971-1972
Owing to changes in a cyclic course of reproduction in the conditions of modern capitalism, and also under the influence of monetary and credit regulation the accurate side between cyclic and special monetary and credit crises is erased. Their interlacing is caused by deepening of a general crisis of capitalism. Modern monetary and credit crisis has poured out from the end of 60th years in currency crisis. Forms of its display are modified in the conditions of state-monopoly capitalism.
As a result of the credit expansion directed on encouragement of economic growth, the debts of the enterprises have increased and there was sharply a problem of repayment of credits in the mid-seventies. Difficulties in banking, mistrust strengthening in interbank relations mainly in connection with currency gamble have resulted in 1974 in bankruptcies of such banks, as "Bankhaus Hershtatt" (Germany), "San Diego" and «Franklin Nejshnl» (USA), «Junon де Bank Sjuis» (Switzerland). Bankruptcies of some firms and banks have caused a credibility gap to bank system.
Simultaneously there is a depreciation of money, and the exchange rate is subject to frequent changes. Exchange crises periodically flash. The price of securities at stock exchanges of Paris and London in 1974 has decreased on 20—30 % that has negatively affected capital investments.
Unbalance of balances of payments, difficulties in bank sphere have strengthened intensity in the international credit relations. In connection with fivefold rise in prices for oil demand for the international credit has raised from industrially developed countries — oil consumers. Some countries have resorted to use of gold as a credit guarantee (Italy, Portugal, Uruguay). In a pursuit of profits the international currency gamble in which many banks actively participate has amplified.
Shocks in monetary and credit sphere are caused by instability of economy, an inflation aggravation, imbalance of balances of payments, movings of short-term capitals — so-called hot money. In the seventies monetary - credit crisis has intertwined with a currency, raw, power and world economic crisis (1974-1975). In turn monetary and credit crisis aggravates contradictions of reproduction and the social antagonisms connected with growth of unemployment, decrease in a standard of life of workers.
Influence of monetary and credit crises on position of workers is shown in various forms. First of all inflation reduces a real salary. Currency gamble negatively affects position of workers even far from sphere of their interests. As an example bankruptcy of the Cologne bank «Bankhaus Hershtatt» (1974) which has incurred severe losses at carrying out of currency transactions in a pursuit of profit can serve. It has caused bankruptcy of the enterprises connected with it and banks. Among victims have appeared ten thousand small investors and 800 serving banks as bankruptcy has been declared on the eve of salary payment.
Monetary and credit crises worsen world trade conditions, cause a course change of currencies that aggravates contradictions between the countries. Thus, monetary and credit crises have return influence on economy, aggravating social and economic contradictions.
Classical cyclic monetary and credit crisis проявт ляется first of all in reduction of the credit and in interest rate increase. Characteristic for an economic crisis overproduction of the goods complicates their realization. Capitalists refuse to sell the goods account from fear of bankruptcy of buyers. In process of delay of a circulation of the capital demand for loans of money for payment of the consumed goods, payments of a salary amplifies and, the main thing, for payment of promissory notes, Appears a tendency to growth of debts of the enterprises. But banks can't satisfy demand for the credit for some reasons: 1) at monetary and credit crises contributions are withdrawn from credit institutions quite often in a mass order; 2) businessmen out of time repay loans, and in case of bankruptcy in general refuse to return them; 3) in the conditions of instability banks are afraid to increase long-term investments of capitals.
Difficulties of reception of the credit conduct to curtailment of production. The delay in return inflow to the enterprises of a monetary gain involves non-payments. As a result of bankruptcies of the enterprises and banks the part of promissory notes and credit volume is violently liquidated decreases. As an example bankruptcies of 10 thousand credit institutions can serve in the USA in 1929 1933
In conditions when the credit is reduced, and the trust to credit money is undermined, begins a pursuit of the valid money. At gold monometallism it caused attacks to banks of issue with the requirement of exchange of credit money of gold. After cancellation of the gold standard flight from paper and credit money to gold is shown in buying up and тезаврации yellow metal.
Insolvency of borrowers, refusal of banks and exporters to grant the loan from fear of bankruptcies cause reduction of the international credit and export of capitals that strengthens an unbalance of balances of payments. During a world economic crisis 1929-1933 many states (Germany, a number of the countries of Latin America) have appeared insolvent.
Crisis of overproduction, bankruptcy of banks and the enterprises cause sharp falling of courses of securities and a panic at stock exchanges. The governments are compelled to close these stock exchanges periodically.
Evolving from overproduction economic crises, monetary and credit crises aggravate them. Bankruptcies, depreciation of the real capital, liquidation of the enterprises, curtailment of production and employment clear away a way for new economic lifting and credit expansion.
Special monetary and credit crises arise under the influence of infringements in monetary and credit sphere in connection with extreme economic and political events, acts of nature, wars.
So, the poor harvest of 1839 in England has caused a rise in prices for wheat and increase in its import from abroad. The passive of the balance of payments caused by it has led to the gold leak which stocks were reduced with 10,5. Million ф. The item in the beginning of 1838 to 2,4 million ф. The item in August, 1839 With a view of restraint of leak of gold has been raised discount rate with 4 to 6 %.
Usually wars also cause monetary and credit crises. In the First World War mass withdrawal of contributions from financial institutions, increase of interest rates, sales of securities and decrease in their courses was observed. Some banks have temporarily been closed.
Sometimes the legislation aggravates monetary and credit crisis. For example, rigid restriction of issue of banknotes depending on official gold reserves of the country (Robert Pilja's Certificate of 1844) has strengthened «monetary hunger» in 1847, 1857, 1866
Though special monetary and credit crises arise usually under the influence of infringements in monetary and credit sphere in the absence of an economic crisis, their reasons are caused by a condition of sphere of manufacture. They anticipate those infringements which should be found out as a result of the events causing monetary and credit crises.
In the conditions of modern capitalism the parity between cyclic and special monetary and credit crises changes. It is connected with change of a course of economic crises in the conditions of state-monopoly capitalism. Modern monetary and credit crises, as a rule, intertwine with cyclic crises of overproduction, and такжэ with economic recessions. However sharp shocks in monetary and credit sphere occur at times and in economic lifting.
For example, depreciation of money, bankruptcies of firms and banks, falling of courses of securities at stock exchanges have amplified in the energy crisis which has begun in 1973 though average rate of economic growth in a number promysh-lenno the developed countries was above, than in 1971-1972
Owing to changes in a cyclic course of reproduction in the conditions of modern capitalism, and also under the influence of monetary and credit regulation the accurate side between cyclic and special monetary and credit crises is erased. Their interlacing is caused by deepening of a general crisis of capitalism. Modern monetary and credit crisis has poured out from the end of 60th years in currency crisis. Forms of its display are modified in the conditions of state-monopoly capitalism.
As a result of the credit expansion directed on encouragement of economic growth, the debts of the enterprises have increased and there was sharply a problem of repayment of credits in the mid-seventies. Difficulties in banking, mistrust strengthening in interbank relations mainly in connection with currency gamble have resulted in 1974 in bankruptcies of such banks, as "Bankhaus Hershtatt" (Germany), "San Diego" and «Franklin Nejshnl» (USA), «Junon де Bank Sjuis» (Switzerland). Bankruptcies of some firms and banks have caused a credibility gap to bank system.
Simultaneously there is a depreciation of money, and the exchange rate is subject to frequent changes. Exchange crises periodically flash. The price of securities at stock exchanges of Paris and London in 1974 has decreased on 20—30 % that has negatively affected capital investments.
Unbalance of balances of payments, difficulties in bank sphere have strengthened intensity in the international credit relations. In connection with fivefold rise in prices for oil demand for the international credit has raised from industrially developed countries — oil consumers. Some countries have resorted to use of gold as a credit guarantee (Italy, Portugal, Uruguay). In a pursuit of profits the international currency gamble in which many banks actively participate has amplified.
Shocks in monetary and credit sphere are caused by instability of economy, an inflation aggravation, imbalance of balances of payments, movings of short-term capitals — so-called hot money. In the seventies monetary - credit crisis has intertwined with a currency, raw, power and world economic crisis (1974-1975). In turn monetary and credit crisis aggravates contradictions of reproduction and the social antagonisms connected with growth of unemployment, decrease in a standard of life of workers.
Influence of monetary and credit crises on position of workers is shown in various forms. First of all inflation reduces a real salary. Currency gamble negatively affects position of workers even far from sphere of their interests. As an example bankruptcy of the Cologne bank «Bankhaus Hershtatt» (1974) which has incurred severe losses at carrying out of currency transactions in a pursuit of profit can serve. It has caused bankruptcy of the enterprises connected with it and banks. Among victims have appeared ten thousand small investors and 800 serving banks as bankruptcy has been declared on the eve of salary payment.
Monetary and credit crises worsen world trade conditions, cause a course change of currencies that aggravates contradictions between the countries. Thus, monetary and credit crises have return influence on economy, aggravating social and economic contradictions.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Whether to wait for rouble devaluation in 2012?
The Russian currency in 2012 inevitable devaluation waits. Thus, unlike 2008-2009, rouble depreciation will be not smooth, but single – at once on 10-20 %. To such unfavourable conclusions experts of the Higher school of economy have come in the research.
If such scenario is realized, the Russian next year at «a good deal» for dollar should give about 31 roubles, for euro – 44. At "not so good" – 33,6 roubles for dollar and 47,8 roubles for euro. The official rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation since July, 22nd, makes 27,908 roubles for dollar, 39,8415 roubles for euro.
In Ministry of economic development and trade consider, however, that strong easing of rouble in 2012 won't be, but risks are in 2013-2014
It would seem, the Russian currency had more recently hard time. Within seven months - since July 2008 till February, 2009 – the dollar has grown in relation to rouble on 60 %, and euro on 40 %. It is necessary to notice that if not efforts of Bank of Russia to which by means of reserves managed to limit falling by this level, Russians could come up against a situation of 1998: then during the seven-mouth period the rouble has given practically in 4 times in relation to dollar.
The Central Bank was possible to stabilize a situation, and already since spring of 2009 the rouble has begun the gradual strengthening. Till today since that moment the Russian currency has added 24 % in relation to dollar and 16 % to euro.
And here again have suddenly started talking about devaluation …
Devaluation as a presentiment
«Participants of the currency market have expectations that the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments will decrease, risks of easing of rouble in near prospect therefore are possible. It not my opinion, is expectations of participants of the market», - the head of Bank of Russia Sergey Ignatyev has declared last week.
It is necessary to notice that these expectations are supported by the macroeconomic data. Rates of increase of import considerably exceed growth of volumes of export. Experts ВШЭ notice that if import from next year will grow pre-crisis rates – approximately 30 % year by a year the balance of the account of current operations already in the second quarter 2012 will decrease to level less than 1 % of gross national product then the Bank of Russia can go on the planned/operated/limited devaluation of rouble.
According to Dmitry Dorofeyev, the chief of analytical department «Ursa the Capital», under condition of absence of external shocks the next five years is extremely improbable that the import volume will exceed volume of export and balance of trading balance becomes negative.
In turn, even if the balance will leave in a negative zone, there is no accident, Andrey Klepach considers замглавы Ministry of economic development and trade. «Many countries faced it, - he hasn'ted. - stability of national currency was thus kept at the expense of capital inflow». However, as Sergey Pukhov from the Center of development ВШЭ confirms, to compensate inflow of the capital easing of the current account it is impossible. And the reasons of observed outflow are covered in absence of the clear political program. Decrease in the prices for oil will turn back new currency crisis.
Devaluation as a reality
Dmitry Dorofeyev, analyst «Ursa the Capital»:
«The situation for the Russian rouble still remains favorable. Proceeding from a curve of future contracts existing now on oil, rouble should feel well long time. Another matter that a world conjuncture of the prices for oil is enough изменчива therefore it directly influences rouble exchange rate formation. However at forecasts of a rise in prices existing now for oil, rouble it is in many respects insured from strong waves of devaluations rather бивалютной baskets. Though movements concerning dollar and euro can be strong enough.
Even if to assume probability of easing of rouble in 2012 considerable (more than 10 %) devaluations of our currency rather бивалютной baskets next year I estimate probability as low. Dynamics of a rouble exchange rate will repeat cycles of change of the prices for the raw goods, therefore dynamics of a course change of rouble will be in many respects adhered to cycles of acceleration/delay of world economy. As a whole I don't wait for devaluation of rouble. The rouble is in lateral motion and considerable the procorf on it isn't expected yet ».
Maxim Lobada, expert БКС the Express train:
«Negative balance of balance to which we come nearer – already very much for a long time for anybody not a secret. Export of energy carriers from the Russian Federation keeps at more or less invariable level. Simultaneously there is an import growth that reduces proficiency of trading balance. If the prices for oil give, the current account becomes negative much earlier. To compensate a difference at the expense of inflow of investments it will not be possible without cardinal change of an investment climate in the country. The market yet doesn't expect oil falling, but in case of transition of debt problems in Europe or in the USA in a sharp or critical phase of the quotation will fall very quickly. Andrey Klepach sees a solution of a problem of balancing of negative balance just at the expense of capital inflow, but starting with history of the country of last several years, I very skeptically look at cardinal change with an investment climate and I believe that the optimistical variant can and not justify. Therefore devaluation is quite real».
Vladimir Harchenko, analyst of "IFD Kapital":
«Rouble easing, most likely, will occur this year – against outflow of the capital, high inflation and delay of a rise in prices for oil. Single devaluation of a rouble exchange rate in 2012 is improbable, though prevalence of a negative tendency in the currency market within next year quite probably.
The wide range of admissible course changes of rouble to бивалютной to a basket (more than 15 % between the top and bottom borders of a technical corridor), and also rather flexible mechanism of currency interventions of the Central Bank gives the chance to avoid single devaluation of rouble even at sharp reduction of balance of the account of current operations. Only at essential or long falling of the prices for oil, and also toughening of a protectionist policy of the Central Bank in reply to splash in speculative pressure upon rouble its sharp devaluation as it was in the end of 2008 – the beginning of 2009 »is possible.
If such scenario is realized, the Russian next year at «a good deal» for dollar should give about 31 roubles, for euro – 44. At "not so good" – 33,6 roubles for dollar and 47,8 roubles for euro. The official rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation since July, 22nd, makes 27,908 roubles for dollar, 39,8415 roubles for euro.
In Ministry of economic development and trade consider, however, that strong easing of rouble in 2012 won't be, but risks are in 2013-2014
It would seem, the Russian currency had more recently hard time. Within seven months - since July 2008 till February, 2009 – the dollar has grown in relation to rouble on 60 %, and euro on 40 %. It is necessary to notice that if not efforts of Bank of Russia to which by means of reserves managed to limit falling by this level, Russians could come up against a situation of 1998: then during the seven-mouth period the rouble has given practically in 4 times in relation to dollar.
The Central Bank was possible to stabilize a situation, and already since spring of 2009 the rouble has begun the gradual strengthening. Till today since that moment the Russian currency has added 24 % in relation to dollar and 16 % to euro.
And here again have suddenly started talking about devaluation …
Devaluation as a presentiment
«Participants of the currency market have expectations that the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments will decrease, risks of easing of rouble in near prospect therefore are possible. It not my opinion, is expectations of participants of the market», - the head of Bank of Russia Sergey Ignatyev has declared last week.
It is necessary to notice that these expectations are supported by the macroeconomic data. Rates of increase of import considerably exceed growth of volumes of export. Experts ВШЭ notice that if import from next year will grow pre-crisis rates – approximately 30 % year by a year the balance of the account of current operations already in the second quarter 2012 will decrease to level less than 1 % of gross national product then the Bank of Russia can go on the planned/operated/limited devaluation of rouble.
According to Dmitry Dorofeyev, the chief of analytical department «Ursa the Capital», under condition of absence of external shocks the next five years is extremely improbable that the import volume will exceed volume of export and balance of trading balance becomes negative.
In turn, even if the balance will leave in a negative zone, there is no accident, Andrey Klepach considers замглавы Ministry of economic development and trade. «Many countries faced it, - he hasn'ted. - stability of national currency was thus kept at the expense of capital inflow». However, as Sergey Pukhov from the Center of development ВШЭ confirms, to compensate inflow of the capital easing of the current account it is impossible. And the reasons of observed outflow are covered in absence of the clear political program. Decrease in the prices for oil will turn back new currency crisis.
Devaluation as a reality
Dmitry Dorofeyev, analyst «Ursa the Capital»:
«The situation for the Russian rouble still remains favorable. Proceeding from a curve of future contracts existing now on oil, rouble should feel well long time. Another matter that a world conjuncture of the prices for oil is enough изменчива therefore it directly influences rouble exchange rate formation. However at forecasts of a rise in prices existing now for oil, rouble it is in many respects insured from strong waves of devaluations rather бивалютной baskets. Though movements concerning dollar and euro can be strong enough.
Even if to assume probability of easing of rouble in 2012 considerable (more than 10 %) devaluations of our currency rather бивалютной baskets next year I estimate probability as low. Dynamics of a rouble exchange rate will repeat cycles of change of the prices for the raw goods, therefore dynamics of a course change of rouble will be in many respects adhered to cycles of acceleration/delay of world economy. As a whole I don't wait for devaluation of rouble. The rouble is in lateral motion and considerable the procorf on it isn't expected yet ».
Maxim Lobada, expert БКС the Express train:
«Negative balance of balance to which we come nearer – already very much for a long time for anybody not a secret. Export of energy carriers from the Russian Federation keeps at more or less invariable level. Simultaneously there is an import growth that reduces proficiency of trading balance. If the prices for oil give, the current account becomes negative much earlier. To compensate a difference at the expense of inflow of investments it will not be possible without cardinal change of an investment climate in the country. The market yet doesn't expect oil falling, but in case of transition of debt problems in Europe or in the USA in a sharp or critical phase of the quotation will fall very quickly. Andrey Klepach sees a solution of a problem of balancing of negative balance just at the expense of capital inflow, but starting with history of the country of last several years, I very skeptically look at cardinal change with an investment climate and I believe that the optimistical variant can and not justify. Therefore devaluation is quite real».
Vladimir Harchenko, analyst of "IFD Kapital":
«Rouble easing, most likely, will occur this year – against outflow of the capital, high inflation and delay of a rise in prices for oil. Single devaluation of a rouble exchange rate in 2012 is improbable, though prevalence of a negative tendency in the currency market within next year quite probably.
The wide range of admissible course changes of rouble to бивалютной to a basket (more than 15 % between the top and bottom borders of a technical corridor), and also rather flexible mechanism of currency interventions of the Central Bank gives the chance to avoid single devaluation of rouble even at sharp reduction of balance of the account of current operations. Only at essential or long falling of the prices for oil, and also toughening of a protectionist policy of the Central Bank in reply to splash in speculative pressure upon rouble its sharp devaluation as it was in the end of 2008 – the beginning of 2009 »is possible.
The forecast for 2012: 40 of roubles for dollar and above Russia falling of a standard of living, unemployment, inflation and a rise in prices waits
Moscow, September 26 (Svicherevsky) – World economy covers New Region, Matvej the second wave of crisis, this time a financial collapse can be tightened for decades. Thus Russia is absolutely not ready to struggle against crisis, the authorities behave so as if oil never will fall below 150 dollars for barrel. So economists Igor Nikolays and Maxim Petronevich see a situation. They stated the opinion on the reasons of falling of a rouble exchange rate and vision of the further succession of events today at press conference in Moscow.
NEW WAVE
The most gloomy forecasts of economists come true, the situation in world economy is worse, than it was expected, the director of department of the strategic analysis of company FBK Igor Nikolays has informed.
«With a high probability it that it is accepted to name the second wave of crisis», – he has told.
Nine chances from ten that the mechanism of an economic collapse is started also it not to stop. The Russian rouble has already reacted to deterioration of financial atmosphere by prompt falling. For the first time for two years the rate of national currency has fallen to 32 roubles for dollar.
All said about problems to the USA and Europe, that Russia in comparison with them – a stability islet, and the rouble has fallen the first and very quickly. It is symptomatic, Igor Nikolays considers – stability of national currency is an indicator of stability of economy.
Principal causes two. The first, rouble is a commodity-raw currency. But it falls even more strongly, than other currencies dependent on raw materials: Canadian, Norwegian, Australian.
«The raw orientation of the Russian economy hasn't decreased, and has become stronger also its strengthening is put for years forward. Modernizatsionnaja rhetoric, this one, and a reality – another», – Nikolaev has told.
The second factor which has affected devaluation – leaving from the country of investors. At threat of falling of the prices for investment oil in the Russian economy become very risky. Investors the history with Michael Prokhorov and party «Just cause« also has frightened.
«This political event has shown that the present power won't admit any liberal turn in management of economy. It has suppressed this variant of events in a germ. Those decisions which are accepted by a tandem during the last years: increase in a defense cost, growth of social support and so on, – kinds of expenses, in my opinion, not the most effective. And the market has realized that in case of crisis of action of the government of Russia the most correct will be undertaken with delay and thus not», – the head of group of forecasting of Institute «considers the development Center« NIU ВШЭ »Maxim Petronevich.
TO FORTY AND MORE LOW
The rouble will continue falling, experts predict. During the elective period devaluation will constrain in every way, but to do it it is infinitely impossible. On a question as Russians to keep savings, Maxim Petronevich has offered two variants: a multiple currency basket and depositary rouble contributions in reliable banks.
«It is important that citizens haven't learned one simple true – it is necessary to store in everything, – he has told. – both in dollars, and in euro, and in roubles. The universal recipe remains without changes. The second that it is possible to advise – to open the account in roubles. To choose bank from a top-30 where rates above».
Igor Nikolays has disagreed with the colleague.
«Pay off on currency to credits that planned to buy – buy. If there was still money – two thirds to translate in the dollars, one – in euro. But not roubles», – the economist has told.
In its opinion, per second half 2012 the dollar will cost an order of 40 roubles. Maxim Petronevich considers, as it not a limit.
«There are many fears that oil can fall below sixty dollars for barrel, – it has explained. – in these conditions the rouble exchange rate can give to forty roubles for dollar and even more low. We carried out calculations. It has turned out that if the price for oil will reach forty five – fifty dollars for barrel, the rouble can depreciate to sixty roubles for dollar».
«Unfortunately, the rouble remains very weak currency, – has added Petronevich. – And it is reflection socially economic policy which is spent since 1998. Despite plural declarations, we can't leave from the raw policy» in any way.
THE GOVERNMENT IN CRISIS DOES NOT TRUST
The approaching second wave of crisis can appear heavier and long, than the first. Then world economy problems "have filled in" with monetary streams of the government of leading powers. Thus, the majority of subjects of the market knew that it will occur and trusted in fast restoration. Now such scenario is already impossible.
«Economic agents don't know that will occur, if the second wave comes. They understand that growth can not be. Economists say that« the lost decade »can wait for us. That is long enough piece when world economy will be стагнировать or to grow very slowly», – the head of group of forecasting of Institute «tells the development Center« NIU ВШЭ »Maxim Petronevich.
This time, «to get off with a fright» as in 2008 – 2009, it will not turn out, the director of department of the strategic analysis of company FBK Igor Nikolays agrees. Russia, as he said, waits and at all «gloomy development of the scenario». The pillow of economic safety in the form of reserve fund has decreased almost in six and a half times – from 4,9 trillion roubles in the beginning of 2009 to 770 million now. Besides, the Russian power fast payment for populism waits.
«The remained money will suffice on holding on and achieving the necessary result on elections, – Igor Nikolays considers. – and it will then be found out that money for support of a rate of national currency isn't present, it is necessary to pay under social obligations what to fulfill promises on financing of defensive expenses is unreal. And here still the Olympic Games, the World championship and the summit».
After threat of defaults of some the euro area states will occupy the large sums in a foreign market of Russia inconveniently. It is necessary to refuse the taken obligations, to turn off investment programs. As consequence – decrease in a standard of life of the population and growth of social intensity.
«This all we will long leave and painfully», – predicts Nikolays.
Maxim Petronevich has completed a sad picture of the near future several gloomy dabs.
«The negative scenario of succession of events is that. Till winter of the price for oil fall. The government starts to eat quickly стабфонды, including that money that are intended for emergency needs. I do not exclude such development of a situation that in the middle of next year Russia can appear with a huge current budgeted deficit. The government will be compelled to decide what to cut – pensions, military expenses, infrastructural and so on. The government as it also was earlier, will cut investment expenses and will raise tariffs for production of natural monopolies: an electricity, water, warmly, Zhd-transportations and so on. As consequence, many businessmen will close the enterprises and the country will leave», – the economist has told.
It is necessary to accept urgently the program of actions for minimization of influences of crisis, experts speak. Already now it is necessary to give a signal to banks and the backbone enterprises – with former volume the state to help can't any more, be going to survive in crisis. But our power behaves as if any crisis doesn't notice.
«The budget testifies that the government doesn't trust in crisis. The plan« »at the government Would be not present, and they at all haven't started to think of it», – Maxim Petronevich has told.
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