Because of debt crisis in Europe Russia has nothing to wait for rapid growth in 2012. The question only in that, how much strongly it will affect domestic economy. Some possibilities to remain afloat and even to leave in plus at it are available.
Analysts in Russia and abroad give pessimistic forecasts for world economy for 2012. The world, most likely, should face face to face the second wave of crisis. Continuation of "verbal" interventions of the authorities in Europe, a policy «tightenings of belts», mass monetary stimulation of economy by world Central Banks can't lead to any real results. Very heavy weight of service of debts and toughening of requirements to a condition of budgets of the states will lead to aggravation of problems of an euro area. Probably, Greece, Portugal and Iceland in general will leave it.
«Bedstvennost of position in Europe in aggregate with problems of not strong economy of the USA will cause in first half of year a storm in the world financial markets which will mention the whole world», – is told in the review of financial group "Kalita-Finans".
The collapse of the market of interbank crediting inevitably a ricochet will strike on all developed and to developing countries, and also on the currency and commodity-raw markets. Russia won't manage to be avoided this fate. The greatest falling is necessary for first two quarters 2012, experts of the company expect.
Against Russia, besides debt problems in an euro area, play the possible public anxieties connected with presidential elections. The increased risks will inevitably strengthen outflow of the capital from Russia while restoration of trust of investors, even at preservation of political system, raises the doubts.
The forecast of the group economist of "Uralsiba" Alexey Devjatova is more positive. He considers that debt problems in the countries of Europe nevertheless will manage to be solved in 2012, and they will not lead to global crisis. However, economic growth in Russia nevertheless will be slowed down. The volume of gross national product next year will not exceed 2,8 %, Alexey Devjatov is assured.
«Growth of gross national product in 2012 will make 3–3,5 %», – has in turn declared to the newspaper the SIGHT the head of analytical department GK Broco Alexey Matrosov. The Russian economy will feel the basic negative consequences of the European crisis already in the first half of the year 2012, he has added.
And the chief of analytical department IK «the Capital» Denis Barabanov expects Grandis that gross national product growth next year will make 4,4 %. «Apparently, 2012 will be not less difficult, than the expiring year. All the hope again on a conjuncture in the oil market», – marks the expert.
It also predicts that in connection with presidential elections increase of tax burden in Russia won't occur. «Considering splash in political activity of the population after December elections in the State Duma, the authorities won't dare to lift taxes even in case of falling of the prices for oil», – the analyst is assured. As he said, the budgeted deficit will become covered, basically, at the expense of privatization.
Denis Barabanov has reminded that the government has decided to transfer increase of tariffs of monopolies since January for July. It means that in 2012 the tendency to inflation delay will proceed. Following the results of a year the rate of inflation won't exceed 6,5 %. Alexey Matrosov adheres to similar opinion also. Its forecast of inflation makes 6,5–7 % following the results of next year.
Experts unanimously assert that the policy of the Central Bank next year will be softer. «Recently the Bank of Russia gave huge volumes of liquidity. The Central Bank also has expanded the list of securities, under which banks can obtain credits. Besides, the Central Bank declared that is ready to renew беззалоговые credits. If not the correct policy of the Central Bank, we already would have essential crisis of liquidity and growth of rates under credits. For now growth of rates remains moderated. Next year the Central Bank, most likely, will continue the policy», – Alexey Devjatov speaks.
«Before the Central Bank there is an uneasy problem as it is clear that surpluses of liquidity can be used with a view of gamble on a rouble exchange rate. On the other hand, an economic conjuncture very difficult, debts before the Central Bank grow, rates under credits also grow. In addition the positive balance of trading balance is reduced. In case of falling of the prices for oil the rouble exchange rate will sharply go downwards», – Denis Barabanov argues.
He waits for continuation of decrease in the rate of refinancing in 2012. «The Central Bank will try not to allow to weaken to speculators of possibility rouble before elections. We expect decrease in the rate no more than on 0,5 %», – Denis Barabanov hasn'ted.
As to the prices for oil experts unanimously assert that oil cost will be more low, than in 2011. Analysts of "Kality-Finans" warn that within 2012 of the price for oil won't be stable. On the one hand, there is a tendency of reduction of demand for power resources. So, by estimations of oil cartel of the OPEC, in the first half of the year 2012 demand from the European states will fall almost to 3 %. At the same time oil recovery in Libya hardly probable will completely be restored till the end of 2012, and in Egypt and Syria the situation remains still strained. It means that fragile balance of demand-offer of oil will be shortly broken. «Within 2012 of the price for oil of mark Brent won't be stable. The range of fluctuations will make 80–120 dollars for barrel», – experts predict.
Under Alexey Devjatova's forecast, cost of oil of mark Urals won't exceed 98,5 dollars for barrel that below level of this year.
Probable reduction of price in the first half of the year will put pressure upon rouble upon oil, analysts of "Kality-Finans" warn. And if on the threshold of power elections nevertheless can constrain a dollar exchange rate at level of 32 roubles further the situation will be more gloomy against increasing political risks. Depreciation of national currency can reach 34 roubles. And if falling of the offer of oil from the countries of the Near East is not compensated by OPEC member countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, rouble falling can be more essential.
Denis Barabanov considers that the rouble exchange rate will become stronger in relation to euro and will be neutral to dollar. «In first two quarters 2012 the rouble will become cheaper to dollar and to rise in price to euro. Further, in process of euro stabilization, the situation will be leveled. In steam dollar/rouble on the end of the year we wait decrease to a mark of 29 roubles, the average course for a year will be above – 30,5 roubles», – Denis Barabanov speaks.
Alexey Devjatov also trusts in rouble strengthening in relation to dollar. «The matter is that situation improvement in Europe will lead to decrease волатильности which always turned around for Russia capital outflow. If this year capital outflow, under our forecasts, makes 80–90 млрд dollars next year – 30-40 billion For dollar next year will give 29,75 roubles», – the economist speaks.
Let's notice that the deputy minister of the finance of Russia Sergey Storchak in the end of 2011 also has given the forecast at the rate of domestic currency which, in its opinion, will make 31 rouble for dollar.
Refusal of investors from высокорискованных actives will be the basic tendency in the currency market in 2012, analysts of "Kality-Finans" specify. Currencies of the developing states will appear under pressure against falling of demand for natural resources from leading world powers. As "silent" harbor traders will choose the American state papers which have proved as "a top-quality" active.
The market of precious metals, in particular, gold becomes one more saving "refuge". Mass flight in a noninflationary active will lead to a price hike on the tool: by the end of 2012 of the quotation can reach 2000 dollars for ounce.
«Stock markets in coming year will represent« a battlefield »world Central Banks and exhausted traders. Nevertheless scale monetary injections cannot stop the markets from« bear »a trend. So, S&P within a year can reach marks in 1100 points, and Russian the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange – 1200 points», – it is told in the review "Kality-Finans".
Among the most risky branches of analytics have allocated sector of ferrous metallurgy, media and ИТ. Besides, with care it is necessary to concern papers of financial and power branches. From more reliable branches experts have noted telecommunication, oil and gas, partially transport
«Within next months we repeatedly will see change of moods – from a panic to euphoria. In the conditions of raised волатильности strategy« pay and take »hardly will work, and the best results will be brought by active management of a portfolio», – the director of analytical department of Nomos-bank Cyril Tremasov warns. By its estimations, RTS index by the end of 2012 will be at level of 1800 points, and the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange – at level of 1750 points.
It is necessary to notice that the official forecast of Ministry of economic development and trade for 2012 assumes the price for oil Urals around 100 dollars against 109 in 2011. Gross national product of Russia will grow in 2012 on 3,7 % against 4,2 % in 2011. Inflation will make 5–6 % against 6,2–6,5 % in 2011.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Manpower in America. A role of the working person in economy of the USA
In the course of evolution of the USA from an agrarian society in the modern industrial state there were radical changes in character of the American labor.
Till the end of a XIX-th century the United States were substantially the agricultural country. In formation of the American economy hardly it was necessary to the unskilled workers receiving twice less qualified handicraftsmen, workmen and mechanics. In cities about 40 percent of workers represented low-paid handymen and the seamstresses working at factories on manufacture of clothes who lived in awful conditions. In process of growth of number of factories and factories on them work of children, women and the poor immigrants working for the machine tool began to be applied widely.
In the end of XIX and the beginning of the XX-th centuries there was a considerable growth of industrial production. Many Americans have left farms and small cities to work at factories and factories where mass production has been adjusted, the strict hierarchy is established, basically work of unskilled workers was applied and the low salary was paid. In similar conditions trade unions gradually began to be created. In due course they managed to achieve substantial improvement of working conditions. Trade unions have changed also the American political life. Often in the union with democratic party they represented one their key groups of the population thanks to which the considerable part of the American social legislation has been accepted, since time of "the New course» the president of Franklin D.Roosevelt in the thirties last century and finishing the stay period in power administrations Kennedy and Johnson in the sixties the XX-th centuries.
The workers organized in trade unions and remain today considerable political and economic force, but their influence is appreciable ослабло. The relative role of manufacturing industry has decreased, and scales of sector of services have increased. The increasing part of the amateur population becomes employees and technical officers, instead of industrial workers. In the meantime in new branches of economic activities try to employ highly skilled workers, able to adapt to the incessant changes caused by occurrence of computers and other new technologies. The increasing orientation to clientele and necessity of frequent updating of made production in reply to market requirements, has induced some employers to reduce scales of hierarchy and instead to rely on interbranch groups of workers independently directing the activity.
To the workers organized in trade unions which traditionally had strong positions in such branches as steel industry and heavy mechanical engineering, isn't possible to adapt to these changes. Trade unions prospered in the first years after the Second World War termination. However during the subsequent period in the conditions of reduction of number of workers in traditional processing industries the number of members of trade unions was reduced also. Having faced constant growth of a competition from the foreign manufacturers using cheap labor, employers began to aspire to finding большей flexibility in the policy of employment. They have started to use work of the people accepted for temporary job or working incomplete working day, and also to give less attention to payment and systems of provision of pensions and the insurance grants, calculated on maintenance of long-term relations with persons of wage labor. Employers also have started more active struggle against campaigns for creation of trade unions and carrying out of strikes. The politicians, once reluctantly opposing trade unions, passed now the laws even more undermining position of these organizations. In the meantime, qualified workers began to concern trade unions as to an anachronism limiting their independence. Only in sectors, basically functioning as monopolies, - such as public authorities and free comprehensive schools - position of trade unions continued to become stronger.
Despite easing of power of trade unions, qualified employees in prospering branches have won from many changes which have recently occurred in position of workers and employees. However to the unskilled workers occupied in traditional branches, often it is necessary to meet difficulties. In the eightieth and ninetieth years of last century rupture in the salary of the qualified and unskilled workers was observed. In spite of the fact that in the late nineties of the XX-th century the American workers and employees had at themselves behind shoulders decade of the growing prosperity which has become by result of considerable economic growth and a low rate of unemployment, many of them felt uncertainty in the future.
Labor standards
One of the reasons causing successes of the American economy, economists consider flexibility of its labor markets. Employers assert that their competitiveness partially depends on freedom presence to employ and dismiss workers in case of changes of conditions of the market. Meanwhile mobility traditionally is characteristic feature of American workers and employees.
Many of them consider change of a place of work as means of improvement of the living conditions. At the same time, businessmen also traditionally recognize that workers reach the greatest productivity if they believe that their work gives them long-term possibilities for advancement on an office ladder, and working consider as one of the main economic targets a guarantee of security work.
For history of the American manpower intensity presence between two following sets of values - flexibility and long-term adherence is characteristic. Since the middle of the eightieth years of the last century, many analysts come to the general conclusion that employers pay the increasing attention of flexibility. Perhaps, it leads to easing of communications between employers and workers on hiring. Till now the long list of laws of states and federal laws protects the rights of workers and employees. Some of the most important federal laws on work include the following:
The law on fair labor standards from 1938 establishes the minimum salary in the country and the maximum quantity of business hours which the businessman can demand from the face, working on hiring. In this law rules of overtime work and the standards, having the purpose prevention of abusings in child labor application also contain. In 1963 in the law about which there is a speech, the amendments forbidding discrimination of women at an establishment and payment of a salary have been made. The congress periodically regulates the size of the minimum salary though this question often causes political disputes. In 1999 the size of the minimum salary made 5,5 US dollars at an o'clock. However, the requirement for labor was at that time so great that many employers - paid the salary exceeding this established size of the minimum salary. Some states have entered at themselves higher level of the minimum salary.
The law on the civil rights from 1964 provides that employers have no right to resort to a discrimination practice at employment or work on hiring depending on a racial accessory, a floor, religion or a nationality.
The law on a discrimination non-admission on age at hiring from 1967 protects workers of an average and advanced age from discrimination at employment.
The law on the safety precautions and labor safety on manufacture from 1971 demands from employers of maintenance of safe working conditions. According to the given law labor safety Management (УОТ) develops standards of workplaces, spends inspections for the purpose of removal of an estimation of observance of these standards, lists the facts of their infringement and imposes penalties on infringers.
The law on provision of pensions working or ERISA establishes standards of systems of the provision of pensions operating at the enterprises or in other nonstate organizations. This law has been accepted in 1994
The law on a family, holiday on a birth of the child and holiday on family circumstances from 1993 guarantees to the persons working on hiring, unpaid holiday on pregnancy and sorts, holiday on adoption or an adoption and holiday on care of seriously sick relatives.
The law on the Americans-invalids, accepted in 1990, guarantees the right to work to people with physical or intellectual lacks.
New labor
During the period since 1950 till last months 1999 the aggregate number working on hiring in nonagricultural branches has grown from 45 million persons to 129,5 million person. The biggest growth of employment was observed in computer sector, sector of public health services and other sectors of sphere of service as the information technology played the increasing role in economy of the USA. In the eightieth and ninetieth years of the XX-th century the number of workplaces in sector of manufacture of the services including sphere of service, transport transportations, public utilities, wholesale and retail trade, the finance, insurance, sphere of real estate and government work, has increased on 35 million, having made all pure gain of number of workplaces for these two decades. Employment growth in sector of services absorbed a manpower liberated as a result of increase of labor productivity in manufacturing industry.
In 1946 on the branches concerning sphere of services, it was necessary 24, 4 million workplaces or 59 percent of employment in nonagricultural branches. By the end of 1999 the number of workplaces in this sector has increased to 104,3 million or to 81 percent of employment in nonagricultural branches. On the contrary, in 1946 the sector of manufacture of the goods into which enter manufacturing industry, building and the mining industry, has provided presence of 17,2 million workplaces or 41 percent of employment in nonagricultural areas, but in the end of 1999 it is number has increased only to 25,2 million and has made 19 percent of employment in nonagricultural areas. However on many of these new workplaces in sphere of services workers didn't receive the same high salary and so considerable grants and privileges, as in manufacturing industry. As a result, the intense financial position which has arisen in much families has induced many women to go to work.
In the eightieth and ninetieth years of last century many employers have passed to new methods of the organization of the manpower. In some companies of workers on hiring united in small groups and gave them considerable independence in performance of the problems put before them. If the management put certain problems before these groups of workers and carried out control over a course of work and its end results groups of workers solved among themselves as it is better to them to perform the work and how to correct the strategy in the conditions of change of requirements of clients and the general working conditions and the market. However many other employers haven't wanted to refuse traditional methods of a management of carried out work. Were also such for whom transition to new methods of a management has appeared difficult. The National board conclusions under labor relations that many groups of workers used by employers not having trade unions, were illegal "trade unions" in which the ascendent position occupied a management, often became an obstacle in a way of occurring changes.
Besides, in the eightieth and ninetieth years of the XX-th century employers had to deal with the increasing variety of a manpower. New ethnic groups joined labor numbers a wide stream, first of all Spanish-speaking Americans and immigrants from the various Asian countries, and more and more women began to occupy workplaces there where earlier the ascendent position was occupied traditionally with men. Constantly growing number of workers addressed in court, accusing employers of carrying out of a discrimination concerning working on hiring depending on their racial accessory, a sex, age or physical defects. The number of the affairs considered by the Commission on observance of equality at employment which is the first instance, accepting similar complaints, has increased with nearby 6 900 in 1991 to from above 16 000 in 1998, and courts choked with an abundance subject to disposal of legal proceeding. Decisions made by courts under the judicial claims connected with discrimination on manufacture or service, had the mixed character. Many of such claims have been rejected as unreasonable, but at the same time courts recognized necessity of presence of a wide range of remedies at law from abusings at employment, promotion, fall in a post and dismissal.
The question about «» still remains to equal payment for equal work actual when speech comes about working conditions in America. In spite of the fact that the federal legislation and legislations of states forbid an establishment of different rates of payment depending on a floor, has historically developed so that women receive for the work less, than men. Partially this difference in payment arises because rather more women is occupied on such works (many women work in service sector) where traditionally pay less, than in other places. However trade unions and the organizations on protection of the rights of women assert that here too finds reflection presence of direct discrimination. Complicates this question the phenomenon observed among employees and technical officers and known under name «a glass ceiling» even more. The invisible barrier which, according to some women, doesn't give them possibility to move ahead on service means and to occupy responsible posts in the companies and high position in the professional environment where men dominate. Last years women began to occupy more and more such posts, but all of them still considerably lag behind the stronger sex if to take into consideration their share in an aggregate number of the population of the country.
Similar problems arise, when business concerns payment and the posts received by representatives of various ethnic and racial groups, often named with "minority" as they make minority in a population aggregate number. (In the end of the XX-th century the majority of Americans represented white people of the European origin; truth, their share in a population aggregate number constantly decreased). Except the laws forbidding discrimination, in the sixtieth and seventieth years of last century the federal government and many states have passed laws on «positive actions», demanding that in certain circumstances at employment employers preferred minority. Supporters of similar laws asserted that minority should be preferred as indemnification for many long years to their discrimination in the past. However this idea has appeared the disputable approach to the decision of racial and ethnic problems. Critics of "positive actions» complained that «return discrimination» is unfair and leads to undesirable consequences. In the nineties the XX-th centuries some states, for example California, have refused «positive actions». Nevertheless, rupture in payment white and minority, and also the big difference between them in rates of unemployment is still observed. Along with the questions at issue, concerning places of the woman among workers and employees, there is a number of other most burning problems which should face the American employers and workers on hiring.
In the eightieth and ninetieth years of last century the general intensity which has resulted measures accepted in much companies on reduction of costs, has led still большему to an aggravation of conditions connected with presence of rupture in payment depending on a floor, a racial accessory or an ethnic origin. Actually, workers and employees, and also their trade unions in the big firms struggling for the survival felt that they should make concessions concerning the salary - reduction of the sizes of its increase or even on its decrease - in hope to receive the big security work or even to rescue the employers. On some airlines and in a number of other companies there was a two-level wage scale at which new workers got for the same work the smaller salary, than old. In the increasing degree the salary was established now not to serve as equal compensation of workers on hiring for their equal work, and to involve and keep workers in whom shortage, such as, for example, experts in the software of computers was felt. The created position promoted rupture growth in a salary between highly skilled and unskilled workers even more. There are no direct measurements of this rupture, but the statistical given Ministries of Labour of the USA allow to spend evident indirect comparisons of the mentioned difference in the salary. In 1979 average weekly earnings fluctuated in a range from 215 US dollars for workers and the employees who have left secondary school, to 348 US dollars for workers and the employees who have ended college. In 1998 rupture about which there is a speech, was in limits from 337 US dollars to 821 US dollars.
Even in the conditions of rupture increase in a salary many employers struggled for increase of the minimum salary established by the federal government. They asserted that the established bottom limit of a salary causes a damage to workers and serving means of increase of expenses for labor and by that complicates hiring of new workers by small enterprises. If in the seventies the last century the minimum salary grew every year in the eightieth and ninetieth years of the same century its rather rare increases took place some. As a result, the minimum salary didn't keep up with growth of cost of life; during the period with 1970 till last months 1999 the minimum salary has risen for 55 percent (from 1,45 US dollars at an o'clock to 5.15 US dollars at an o'clock) while consumer prices have increased for 334 percent. Employers also passed to system of payment of the salary on the work end results more and more, basing increase of payment of workers on results of activity of concrete persons or their divisions instead of equally increasing payment to all workers.
In process of increasing shortage of qualified workers and employees employers gave more attention to a professional training and spent for it of more money resources. They also have accelerated improvement of quality of educational programs at schools so that it is better to prepare their graduates for working conditions with application of modern high technology. Regional groups of employers for the purpose of a professional training solution of a problem in cooperation with local and technical colleges which organized work of corresponding courses were created. In the meantime in 1998 the federal government has passed the Law on an investment of means in preparation of personnel which has strengthened and has led to a uniform denominator of 100 programs of preparation of personnel with participation of federal divisions and divisions of states, and also economic objects, the organizations and the business enterprises. Adoption of this law represents attempt to connect the program of preparation of personnel with actual requirements of employers and to give to the last more than the rights to participation in drawing up and realization of these programs.
At the same time employers also aspired to meeting wishes to workers and serving to smooth contradictions between requirements of their work and necessary conditions of their private life. Bolshee distribution was received by the flexible hours of work giving to workers on hiring possibility more freely to dispose by working hours and to choose business hours. Last achievements in development of technologies of communication systems allow the increasing number of workers «to work in absentia», i.e., at least, partially to work in-home, using the computers connected to their place of work. Satisfying requirements of working mothers and other workers interested in work the incomplete working day, employers have applied such innovations, as, for example, workplace division between several workers. The government has joined this tendency, having accepted in 1993 The law on a family, holiday on a birth of the child and holiday on family circumstances which obliges employers to give to the workers on hiring of holiday in case of occurrence at them in a family of force majeure.
Till the end of a XIX-th century the United States were substantially the agricultural country. In formation of the American economy hardly it was necessary to the unskilled workers receiving twice less qualified handicraftsmen, workmen and mechanics. In cities about 40 percent of workers represented low-paid handymen and the seamstresses working at factories on manufacture of clothes who lived in awful conditions. In process of growth of number of factories and factories on them work of children, women and the poor immigrants working for the machine tool began to be applied widely.
In the end of XIX and the beginning of the XX-th centuries there was a considerable growth of industrial production. Many Americans have left farms and small cities to work at factories and factories where mass production has been adjusted, the strict hierarchy is established, basically work of unskilled workers was applied and the low salary was paid. In similar conditions trade unions gradually began to be created. In due course they managed to achieve substantial improvement of working conditions. Trade unions have changed also the American political life. Often in the union with democratic party they represented one their key groups of the population thanks to which the considerable part of the American social legislation has been accepted, since time of "the New course» the president of Franklin D.Roosevelt in the thirties last century and finishing the stay period in power administrations Kennedy and Johnson in the sixties the XX-th centuries.
The workers organized in trade unions and remain today considerable political and economic force, but their influence is appreciable ослабло. The relative role of manufacturing industry has decreased, and scales of sector of services have increased. The increasing part of the amateur population becomes employees and technical officers, instead of industrial workers. In the meantime in new branches of economic activities try to employ highly skilled workers, able to adapt to the incessant changes caused by occurrence of computers and other new technologies. The increasing orientation to clientele and necessity of frequent updating of made production in reply to market requirements, has induced some employers to reduce scales of hierarchy and instead to rely on interbranch groups of workers independently directing the activity.
To the workers organized in trade unions which traditionally had strong positions in such branches as steel industry and heavy mechanical engineering, isn't possible to adapt to these changes. Trade unions prospered in the first years after the Second World War termination. However during the subsequent period in the conditions of reduction of number of workers in traditional processing industries the number of members of trade unions was reduced also. Having faced constant growth of a competition from the foreign manufacturers using cheap labor, employers began to aspire to finding большей flexibility in the policy of employment. They have started to use work of the people accepted for temporary job or working incomplete working day, and also to give less attention to payment and systems of provision of pensions and the insurance grants, calculated on maintenance of long-term relations with persons of wage labor. Employers also have started more active struggle against campaigns for creation of trade unions and carrying out of strikes. The politicians, once reluctantly opposing trade unions, passed now the laws even more undermining position of these organizations. In the meantime, qualified workers began to concern trade unions as to an anachronism limiting their independence. Only in sectors, basically functioning as monopolies, - such as public authorities and free comprehensive schools - position of trade unions continued to become stronger.
Despite easing of power of trade unions, qualified employees in prospering branches have won from many changes which have recently occurred in position of workers and employees. However to the unskilled workers occupied in traditional branches, often it is necessary to meet difficulties. In the eightieth and ninetieth years of last century rupture in the salary of the qualified and unskilled workers was observed. In spite of the fact that in the late nineties of the XX-th century the American workers and employees had at themselves behind shoulders decade of the growing prosperity which has become by result of considerable economic growth and a low rate of unemployment, many of them felt uncertainty in the future.
Labor standards
One of the reasons causing successes of the American economy, economists consider flexibility of its labor markets. Employers assert that their competitiveness partially depends on freedom presence to employ and dismiss workers in case of changes of conditions of the market. Meanwhile mobility traditionally is characteristic feature of American workers and employees.
Many of them consider change of a place of work as means of improvement of the living conditions. At the same time, businessmen also traditionally recognize that workers reach the greatest productivity if they believe that their work gives them long-term possibilities for advancement on an office ladder, and working consider as one of the main economic targets a guarantee of security work.
For history of the American manpower intensity presence between two following sets of values - flexibility and long-term adherence is characteristic. Since the middle of the eightieth years of the last century, many analysts come to the general conclusion that employers pay the increasing attention of flexibility. Perhaps, it leads to easing of communications between employers and workers on hiring. Till now the long list of laws of states and federal laws protects the rights of workers and employees. Some of the most important federal laws on work include the following:
The law on fair labor standards from 1938 establishes the minimum salary in the country and the maximum quantity of business hours which the businessman can demand from the face, working on hiring. In this law rules of overtime work and the standards, having the purpose prevention of abusings in child labor application also contain. In 1963 in the law about which there is a speech, the amendments forbidding discrimination of women at an establishment and payment of a salary have been made. The congress periodically regulates the size of the minimum salary though this question often causes political disputes. In 1999 the size of the minimum salary made 5,5 US dollars at an o'clock. However, the requirement for labor was at that time so great that many employers - paid the salary exceeding this established size of the minimum salary. Some states have entered at themselves higher level of the minimum salary.
The law on the civil rights from 1964 provides that employers have no right to resort to a discrimination practice at employment or work on hiring depending on a racial accessory, a floor, religion or a nationality.
The law on a discrimination non-admission on age at hiring from 1967 protects workers of an average and advanced age from discrimination at employment.
The law on the safety precautions and labor safety on manufacture from 1971 demands from employers of maintenance of safe working conditions. According to the given law labor safety Management (УОТ) develops standards of workplaces, spends inspections for the purpose of removal of an estimation of observance of these standards, lists the facts of their infringement and imposes penalties on infringers.
The law on provision of pensions working or ERISA establishes standards of systems of the provision of pensions operating at the enterprises or in other nonstate organizations. This law has been accepted in 1994
The law on a family, holiday on a birth of the child and holiday on family circumstances from 1993 guarantees to the persons working on hiring, unpaid holiday on pregnancy and sorts, holiday on adoption or an adoption and holiday on care of seriously sick relatives.
The law on the Americans-invalids, accepted in 1990, guarantees the right to work to people with physical or intellectual lacks.
New labor
During the period since 1950 till last months 1999 the aggregate number working on hiring in nonagricultural branches has grown from 45 million persons to 129,5 million person. The biggest growth of employment was observed in computer sector, sector of public health services and other sectors of sphere of service as the information technology played the increasing role in economy of the USA. In the eightieth and ninetieth years of the XX-th century the number of workplaces in sector of manufacture of the services including sphere of service, transport transportations, public utilities, wholesale and retail trade, the finance, insurance, sphere of real estate and government work, has increased on 35 million, having made all pure gain of number of workplaces for these two decades. Employment growth in sector of services absorbed a manpower liberated as a result of increase of labor productivity in manufacturing industry.
In 1946 on the branches concerning sphere of services, it was necessary 24, 4 million workplaces or 59 percent of employment in nonagricultural branches. By the end of 1999 the number of workplaces in this sector has increased to 104,3 million or to 81 percent of employment in nonagricultural branches. On the contrary, in 1946 the sector of manufacture of the goods into which enter manufacturing industry, building and the mining industry, has provided presence of 17,2 million workplaces or 41 percent of employment in nonagricultural areas, but in the end of 1999 it is number has increased only to 25,2 million and has made 19 percent of employment in nonagricultural areas. However on many of these new workplaces in sphere of services workers didn't receive the same high salary and so considerable grants and privileges, as in manufacturing industry. As a result, the intense financial position which has arisen in much families has induced many women to go to work.
In the eightieth and ninetieth years of last century many employers have passed to new methods of the organization of the manpower. In some companies of workers on hiring united in small groups and gave them considerable independence in performance of the problems put before them. If the management put certain problems before these groups of workers and carried out control over a course of work and its end results groups of workers solved among themselves as it is better to them to perform the work and how to correct the strategy in the conditions of change of requirements of clients and the general working conditions and the market. However many other employers haven't wanted to refuse traditional methods of a management of carried out work. Were also such for whom transition to new methods of a management has appeared difficult. The National board conclusions under labor relations that many groups of workers used by employers not having trade unions, were illegal "trade unions" in which the ascendent position occupied a management, often became an obstacle in a way of occurring changes.
Besides, in the eightieth and ninetieth years of the XX-th century employers had to deal with the increasing variety of a manpower. New ethnic groups joined labor numbers a wide stream, first of all Spanish-speaking Americans and immigrants from the various Asian countries, and more and more women began to occupy workplaces there where earlier the ascendent position was occupied traditionally with men. Constantly growing number of workers addressed in court, accusing employers of carrying out of a discrimination concerning working on hiring depending on their racial accessory, a sex, age or physical defects. The number of the affairs considered by the Commission on observance of equality at employment which is the first instance, accepting similar complaints, has increased with nearby 6 900 in 1991 to from above 16 000 in 1998, and courts choked with an abundance subject to disposal of legal proceeding. Decisions made by courts under the judicial claims connected with discrimination on manufacture or service, had the mixed character. Many of such claims have been rejected as unreasonable, but at the same time courts recognized necessity of presence of a wide range of remedies at law from abusings at employment, promotion, fall in a post and dismissal.
The question about «» still remains to equal payment for equal work actual when speech comes about working conditions in America. In spite of the fact that the federal legislation and legislations of states forbid an establishment of different rates of payment depending on a floor, has historically developed so that women receive for the work less, than men. Partially this difference in payment arises because rather more women is occupied on such works (many women work in service sector) where traditionally pay less, than in other places. However trade unions and the organizations on protection of the rights of women assert that here too finds reflection presence of direct discrimination. Complicates this question the phenomenon observed among employees and technical officers and known under name «a glass ceiling» even more. The invisible barrier which, according to some women, doesn't give them possibility to move ahead on service means and to occupy responsible posts in the companies and high position in the professional environment where men dominate. Last years women began to occupy more and more such posts, but all of them still considerably lag behind the stronger sex if to take into consideration their share in an aggregate number of the population of the country.
Similar problems arise, when business concerns payment and the posts received by representatives of various ethnic and racial groups, often named with "minority" as they make minority in a population aggregate number. (In the end of the XX-th century the majority of Americans represented white people of the European origin; truth, their share in a population aggregate number constantly decreased). Except the laws forbidding discrimination, in the sixtieth and seventieth years of last century the federal government and many states have passed laws on «positive actions», demanding that in certain circumstances at employment employers preferred minority. Supporters of similar laws asserted that minority should be preferred as indemnification for many long years to their discrimination in the past. However this idea has appeared the disputable approach to the decision of racial and ethnic problems. Critics of "positive actions» complained that «return discrimination» is unfair and leads to undesirable consequences. In the nineties the XX-th centuries some states, for example California, have refused «positive actions». Nevertheless, rupture in payment white and minority, and also the big difference between them in rates of unemployment is still observed. Along with the questions at issue, concerning places of the woman among workers and employees, there is a number of other most burning problems which should face the American employers and workers on hiring.
In the eightieth and ninetieth years of last century the general intensity which has resulted measures accepted in much companies on reduction of costs, has led still большему to an aggravation of conditions connected with presence of rupture in payment depending on a floor, a racial accessory or an ethnic origin. Actually, workers and employees, and also their trade unions in the big firms struggling for the survival felt that they should make concessions concerning the salary - reduction of the sizes of its increase or even on its decrease - in hope to receive the big security work or even to rescue the employers. On some airlines and in a number of other companies there was a two-level wage scale at which new workers got for the same work the smaller salary, than old. In the increasing degree the salary was established now not to serve as equal compensation of workers on hiring for their equal work, and to involve and keep workers in whom shortage, such as, for example, experts in the software of computers was felt. The created position promoted rupture growth in a salary between highly skilled and unskilled workers even more. There are no direct measurements of this rupture, but the statistical given Ministries of Labour of the USA allow to spend evident indirect comparisons of the mentioned difference in the salary. In 1979 average weekly earnings fluctuated in a range from 215 US dollars for workers and the employees who have left secondary school, to 348 US dollars for workers and the employees who have ended college. In 1998 rupture about which there is a speech, was in limits from 337 US dollars to 821 US dollars.
Even in the conditions of rupture increase in a salary many employers struggled for increase of the minimum salary established by the federal government. They asserted that the established bottom limit of a salary causes a damage to workers and serving means of increase of expenses for labor and by that complicates hiring of new workers by small enterprises. If in the seventies the last century the minimum salary grew every year in the eightieth and ninetieth years of the same century its rather rare increases took place some. As a result, the minimum salary didn't keep up with growth of cost of life; during the period with 1970 till last months 1999 the minimum salary has risen for 55 percent (from 1,45 US dollars at an o'clock to 5.15 US dollars at an o'clock) while consumer prices have increased for 334 percent. Employers also passed to system of payment of the salary on the work end results more and more, basing increase of payment of workers on results of activity of concrete persons or their divisions instead of equally increasing payment to all workers.
In process of increasing shortage of qualified workers and employees employers gave more attention to a professional training and spent for it of more money resources. They also have accelerated improvement of quality of educational programs at schools so that it is better to prepare their graduates for working conditions with application of modern high technology. Regional groups of employers for the purpose of a professional training solution of a problem in cooperation with local and technical colleges which organized work of corresponding courses were created. In the meantime in 1998 the federal government has passed the Law on an investment of means in preparation of personnel which has strengthened and has led to a uniform denominator of 100 programs of preparation of personnel with participation of federal divisions and divisions of states, and also economic objects, the organizations and the business enterprises. Adoption of this law represents attempt to connect the program of preparation of personnel with actual requirements of employers and to give to the last more than the rights to participation in drawing up and realization of these programs.
At the same time employers also aspired to meeting wishes to workers and serving to smooth contradictions between requirements of their work and necessary conditions of their private life. Bolshee distribution was received by the flexible hours of work giving to workers on hiring possibility more freely to dispose by working hours and to choose business hours. Last achievements in development of technologies of communication systems allow the increasing number of workers «to work in absentia», i.e., at least, partially to work in-home, using the computers connected to their place of work. Satisfying requirements of working mothers and other workers interested in work the incomplete working day, employers have applied such innovations, as, for example, workplace division between several workers. The government has joined this tendency, having accepted in 1993 The law on a family, holiday on a birth of the child and holiday on family circumstances which obliges employers to give to the workers on hiring of holiday in case of occurrence at them in a family of force majeure.
Prospects of development of economy of Russia
Gross national product of Russia in 2012 will increase by 3,5 percent against 4,2 percent in 2011. Such estimation contains in the forecast of social and economic development for 2012-2014, prepared Ministry of economic development and trade of the Russian Federation.
In 2013 gross national product growth at level of 4,2 percent, in 2014 - 4,6 percent again expect, Andrey Klepach has declared замглавы the ministries. Estimations of growth of gross national product for 2012-2013 are lowered in comparison with what are put in the confirmed forecast for 2011-2013 (3,9 and 4,5 percent accordingly), - informs "Interfax".
The mid-annual price for oil in the forecast for 2012-2014 is put at level of 93 dollars, 95 dollars, 97,3 dollars in comparison with 105 dollars in 2011. Клепач has declared earlier that the price for oil, according to Ministry of economic development and trade, will be above 100 dollars and in 2012-2014, but the base forecast is based on lower, conservative estimation.
The mid-annual dollar exchange rate will be stable and will make 27,9 roubles for 1 dollar in 2012-2013 and 28 roubles in 2014 in comparison with 28,4 roubles in 2011.
Growth промпроизводства for 2012-2014 is put in the forecast at level 3,5, 4 and 4,2 percent accordingly (in 2011 - 5,4 percent), growth of a turn of retail trade - 4,5, 5,3 and 6 percent (3,8 percent), growth of real incomes of the population - 4, 4,4 and 5 percent (3,8 percent).
Export in 2012 will decrease from 503,8 billion dollars in 2011 to 494,4 billion dollars, in 2013 will grow to 512,3 billion dollars, in 2014 - to 536,5 billion dollars. Import will be thus forward to grow - from 308,7 billion dollars in 2011 to 352,4 billion dollars, 396 billion dollars and 444,6 billion dollars in 2012-2014 accordingly.
The forecast on inflation is left without changes: 5-6 percent in 2012, 4,5-5,5 percent in 2013 and 4-5 percent in 2014 in comparison with 7-7,5 percent in 2011.
In 2013 gross national product growth at level of 4,2 percent, in 2014 - 4,6 percent again expect, Andrey Klepach has declared замглавы the ministries. Estimations of growth of gross national product for 2012-2013 are lowered in comparison with what are put in the confirmed forecast for 2011-2013 (3,9 and 4,5 percent accordingly), - informs "Interfax".
The mid-annual price for oil in the forecast for 2012-2014 is put at level of 93 dollars, 95 dollars, 97,3 dollars in comparison with 105 dollars in 2011. Клепач has declared earlier that the price for oil, according to Ministry of economic development and trade, will be above 100 dollars and in 2012-2014, but the base forecast is based on lower, conservative estimation.
The mid-annual dollar exchange rate will be stable and will make 27,9 roubles for 1 dollar in 2012-2013 and 28 roubles in 2014 in comparison with 28,4 roubles in 2011.
Growth промпроизводства for 2012-2014 is put in the forecast at level 3,5, 4 and 4,2 percent accordingly (in 2011 - 5,4 percent), growth of a turn of retail trade - 4,5, 5,3 and 6 percent (3,8 percent), growth of real incomes of the population - 4, 4,4 and 5 percent (3,8 percent).
Export in 2012 will decrease from 503,8 billion dollars in 2011 to 494,4 billion dollars, in 2013 will grow to 512,3 billion dollars, in 2014 - to 536,5 billion dollars. Import will be thus forward to grow - from 308,7 billion dollars in 2011 to 352,4 billion dollars, 396 billion dollars and 444,6 billion dollars in 2012-2014 accordingly.
The forecast on inflation is left without changes: 5-6 percent in 2012, 4,5-5,5 percent in 2013 and 4-5 percent in 2014 in comparison with 7-7,5 percent in 2011.
Foreign investments into Russia
By data for March, 2010, total amount of the saved up foreign investments in the Russian economy made $265,8 billion By data for December, 31st, 2010, on volume of the saved up foreign investments Russia is on 17th place in the world. By results of poll spent in 2003 by consulting company A.T. Kearney, Russia was included into ten the most attractive countries for corporate investors.
In 2005 to Russia $53,65 млрд foreign investments have arrived. Leaders became Luxembourg ($13,8 млрд), the Netherlands ($8,9 млрд), Great Britain ($8,6 млрд), Cyprus ($5,1 млрд) and Germany ($3 млрд).
According to the Ministry of Finance of Russia, pure inflow of the capital to the country following the results of 2007 should make $80 billion Thus the Ministry of Finance has essentially exceeded the initial forecast (approximately $40 млрд), calculated proceeding from the data on capital inflow for previous 2006 when this indicator has reached a point $41 billion
In September, 2008 ЮНКТАД has published the report according to which Russia is on the fourth place in the list of the countries, which transnational corporations consider as the most attractive places for placing of the future foreign investments. As it was marked in the report, investment appeal of Russia in comparison with the data of report ЮНКТАД from 2007 has considerably increased. Following the results of 2008, inflow of direct foreign investments to Russia has made $70 млрд — 5 place among the world countries.
In March, 2010 in Paris the president of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with representatives of the French and Russian business circles has informed that the volume of the saved up French investments into Russia exceeds $10 млрд: «With 2003 on 2008, that is in pre-crisis year, our goods turnover has grown in 5 times. Really at us already very decent volume of the saved up French investments. And about half from them are investments not in raw branches, and in processing».
By data from company Boeing press release for summer of 2009, the next 30 years plans for development of business Boeing in the Russian Federation are made about $27 billion by Them aircraft technicians, and also acquisition of various services and materials will be enclosed in the program of cooperation with the Russian partners in the field of manufacture of the titan, designing and working out civil.
In June, 2010 in the report of British auditor company Ernst and Young it was noticed that in 2009 Russia was included into the first 5-ku the countries by quantity of the involved new investment projects. According to the report, growth of interest of the large and average European companies to the Russian market is observed. Open Society «Russian railways» (Russian Railway) has placed debut release of eurobonds on $1,5 billion Within the limits of the Petersburg international economic forum ПМЭФ-2010 total volume of the concluded investment agreements has exceeded 15 млрд euro.
In 2005 to Russia $53,65 млрд foreign investments have arrived. Leaders became Luxembourg ($13,8 млрд), the Netherlands ($8,9 млрд), Great Britain ($8,6 млрд), Cyprus ($5,1 млрд) and Germany ($3 млрд).
According to the Ministry of Finance of Russia, pure inflow of the capital to the country following the results of 2007 should make $80 billion Thus the Ministry of Finance has essentially exceeded the initial forecast (approximately $40 млрд), calculated proceeding from the data on capital inflow for previous 2006 when this indicator has reached a point $41 billion
In September, 2008 ЮНКТАД has published the report according to which Russia is on the fourth place in the list of the countries, which transnational corporations consider as the most attractive places for placing of the future foreign investments. As it was marked in the report, investment appeal of Russia in comparison with the data of report ЮНКТАД from 2007 has considerably increased. Following the results of 2008, inflow of direct foreign investments to Russia has made $70 млрд — 5 place among the world countries.
In March, 2010 in Paris the president of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with representatives of the French and Russian business circles has informed that the volume of the saved up French investments into Russia exceeds $10 млрд: «With 2003 on 2008, that is in pre-crisis year, our goods turnover has grown in 5 times. Really at us already very decent volume of the saved up French investments. And about half from them are investments not in raw branches, and in processing».
By data from company Boeing press release for summer of 2009, the next 30 years plans for development of business Boeing in the Russian Federation are made about $27 billion by Them aircraft technicians, and also acquisition of various services and materials will be enclosed in the program of cooperation with the Russian partners in the field of manufacture of the titan, designing and working out civil.
In June, 2010 in the report of British auditor company Ernst and Young it was noticed that in 2009 Russia was included into the first 5-ku the countries by quantity of the involved new investment projects. According to the report, growth of interest of the large and average European companies to the Russian market is observed. Open Society «Russian railways» (Russian Railway) has placed debut release of eurobonds on $1,5 billion Within the limits of the Petersburg international economic forum ПМЭФ-2010 total volume of the concluded investment agreements has exceeded 15 млрд euro.
Foreign trade of Russia
The foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation in 2010 has made $625,4 млрд that on 33,3 % more than in 2009, is told in the message of Federal customs service (ФТС). Following the results of 2010 Russia exported the goods on $396,4 млрд that on 31,4 % above level of 2009 Import has grown on 36,8 % - to $229 billion Positive foreign trade balance of the Russian Federation last year has made $167,4 млрд that in 1,2 times above an indicator of 2009 ($134,3 млрд).
The turn with the far abroad countries has increased by 33,4 %, having reached $534,1 billion Esport in the far abroad countries has made $336,7 млрд (+32,1 %), import - $197,4 млрд (+35,6 %). The balance of trading balance with the far abroad countries in 2010 has grown to $139,3 млрд (+27,5 %).
The foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries became more on 33 % and has made $91,3 billion Thus export of goods has reached $59,7 млрд (+27,4 %), import of $31,6 млрд (+44,8 %). The positive balance with the CIS countries has grown on 12,4 % - to $28,1 billion
On EU share in 2010 49 % of the Russian goods turnover, to the CIS countries - 14,6 %, the countries EvrAzEs - 7,8 %, the countries ATES - 23,3 % were necessary. The basic trading partners of the Russian Federation in 2010 among the far abroad countries were: China, goods turnover with which has made $59,3 млрд (growth on 50,3 % by 2009), the Netherlands - $58,4 млрд (46 %), Germany - $51,8 млрд (29,7 %), Italy - $37,3 млрд (13,2 %), Turkey - $25,2 млрд (28,8 %), the USA - $23,6 млрд (28,8 %), Japan - $23,1 млрд (59,4 %), France - $22,6 млрд (31,5 %), Poland - $20,8 млрд (24,2 %), Republic Korea - $17,7 млрд (68 %).
In commodity structure of export of Russia in 2010 relative density of the fuel and energy goods has made 68,4 %, cost the volume of export of this group in comparison with 2009 has increased on 36,3 %. Average export contract price of the Russian oil which is taken out to the countries of the far abroad, in 2010 has made 557,3 dollars SsHA/t. From January till May, 2010 growth of average contract price of oil about 531,9 dollars SsHA/t in January to 582,3 dollars SsHA/t in May was marked. However in June and July average contract price has decreased and has made according to 540,2 dollars SsHA/t and 536,3 dollars SsHA/t. Since August, 2010 the tendency of growth of average contract price has renewed and by the end of the year it has made 614,4 dollars SsHA/t.
Relative density of metals and products has made 10,6 % of them. Cost the volume of export of metals and products from them in 2010 has increased in comparison with 2009 on 25,8 %. Cost the volume of export of production of the chemical industry in 2010 has increased on 34,2 %, thus, relative density of the given commodity group in export total amount has made 6,2 %. The share of production of mechanical engineering in total exports of Russia in 2010 has made 5,5 %. Cost the volume of export of this production has increased on 25,0 %. Relative density of articles of food and agricultural raw materials in cost volume of export of the country has made 2,3 %. Cost the volume of the given commodity group has decreased on 6,4 %.
The Russian import in 2010 has made 229,0 billion US dollars and in comparison with 2009 has increased on 36,9 %, including from the far abroad countries – 197,4 billion US dollars, from the CIS countries – 31,6 billion US dollars. Thus growth of import from the far abroad countries has made 35,7 %, of the CIS countries – 45,0 %.
Relative density of production of mechanical engineering in structure of the Russian import in 2010 has made 45,0 % (in 2009 – 43,9 %). Cost the volume of import of production of mechanical engineering has increased in comparison with 2009 by 39,8 %. The share of articles of food and raw materials for their manufacture in the general import in 2010 has made 15,4 %, and has decreased in comparison with 2009 on 2,2 percentage points, thus cost the volume of import of this production has increased on 19,5 %.
In 2010 in comparison with last year in cost expression purchases of production of the chemical industry have increased by 33,4 %. The share of this production has made 16,5 %. Growth of the Russian import in 2010 of metals and products has made 56,7 % of them, and relative density of these goods – 7,4 % against 6,4 % in 2009; textiles, textile products and footwear – 50,0 % (6,1 % against 5,5 %), forest products and pulp-and-paper products – 15,1 % (2,6 % against 3,1 %). Without the data about trade with Byelorussia; in July-December, 2010 taking into account the data of Committee of customs control of the Ministry of Finance of Republic Kazakhstan.
The turn with the far abroad countries has increased by 33,4 %, having reached $534,1 billion Esport in the far abroad countries has made $336,7 млрд (+32,1 %), import - $197,4 млрд (+35,6 %). The balance of trading balance with the far abroad countries in 2010 has grown to $139,3 млрд (+27,5 %).
The foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries became more on 33 % and has made $91,3 billion Thus export of goods has reached $59,7 млрд (+27,4 %), import of $31,6 млрд (+44,8 %). The positive balance with the CIS countries has grown on 12,4 % - to $28,1 billion
On EU share in 2010 49 % of the Russian goods turnover, to the CIS countries - 14,6 %, the countries EvrAzEs - 7,8 %, the countries ATES - 23,3 % were necessary. The basic trading partners of the Russian Federation in 2010 among the far abroad countries were: China, goods turnover with which has made $59,3 млрд (growth on 50,3 % by 2009), the Netherlands - $58,4 млрд (46 %), Germany - $51,8 млрд (29,7 %), Italy - $37,3 млрд (13,2 %), Turkey - $25,2 млрд (28,8 %), the USA - $23,6 млрд (28,8 %), Japan - $23,1 млрд (59,4 %), France - $22,6 млрд (31,5 %), Poland - $20,8 млрд (24,2 %), Republic Korea - $17,7 млрд (68 %).
In commodity structure of export of Russia in 2010 relative density of the fuel and energy goods has made 68,4 %, cost the volume of export of this group in comparison with 2009 has increased on 36,3 %. Average export contract price of the Russian oil which is taken out to the countries of the far abroad, in 2010 has made 557,3 dollars SsHA/t. From January till May, 2010 growth of average contract price of oil about 531,9 dollars SsHA/t in January to 582,3 dollars SsHA/t in May was marked. However in June and July average contract price has decreased and has made according to 540,2 dollars SsHA/t and 536,3 dollars SsHA/t. Since August, 2010 the tendency of growth of average contract price has renewed and by the end of the year it has made 614,4 dollars SsHA/t.
Relative density of metals and products has made 10,6 % of them. Cost the volume of export of metals and products from them in 2010 has increased in comparison with 2009 on 25,8 %. Cost the volume of export of production of the chemical industry in 2010 has increased on 34,2 %, thus, relative density of the given commodity group in export total amount has made 6,2 %. The share of production of mechanical engineering in total exports of Russia in 2010 has made 5,5 %. Cost the volume of export of this production has increased on 25,0 %. Relative density of articles of food and agricultural raw materials in cost volume of export of the country has made 2,3 %. Cost the volume of the given commodity group has decreased on 6,4 %.
The Russian import in 2010 has made 229,0 billion US dollars and in comparison with 2009 has increased on 36,9 %, including from the far abroad countries – 197,4 billion US dollars, from the CIS countries – 31,6 billion US dollars. Thus growth of import from the far abroad countries has made 35,7 %, of the CIS countries – 45,0 %.
Relative density of production of mechanical engineering in structure of the Russian import in 2010 has made 45,0 % (in 2009 – 43,9 %). Cost the volume of import of production of mechanical engineering has increased in comparison with 2009 by 39,8 %. The share of articles of food and raw materials for their manufacture in the general import in 2010 has made 15,4 %, and has decreased in comparison with 2009 on 2,2 percentage points, thus cost the volume of import of this production has increased on 19,5 %.
In 2010 in comparison with last year in cost expression purchases of production of the chemical industry have increased by 33,4 %. The share of this production has made 16,5 %. Growth of the Russian import in 2010 of metals and products has made 56,7 % of them, and relative density of these goods – 7,4 % against 6,4 % in 2009; textiles, textile products and footwear – 50,0 % (6,1 % against 5,5 %), forest products and pulp-and-paper products – 15,1 % (2,6 % against 3,1 %). Without the data about trade with Byelorussia; in July-December, 2010 taking into account the data of Committee of customs control of the Ministry of Finance of Republic Kazakhstan.
Electric power industry of Russia
In territory of Russia incorporated power systems of the Center, the Northwest, the Volga region, the North Caucasus, Ural Mountains, Siberia and the Far East function. The electric power make on thermal, nuclear and hydroelectric power stations.
Following the results of 2009 in Russia it has been made 1,04 трлн квт*ч the electric power (4 place in the world). The same year from Russia it has been exported 17,9 млрд квт*ч the electric power for the sum $789 million In 2010 it has been exported 19,0 млрд квт*ч the electric power for the sum $1,03 billion
As of 2009 in Russia is available hydraulic power stations 15 operating, completed and being in frozen building from above 1000 МВт and more than hundred hydroelectric power stations of smaller capacity. Atomic engineering. On the beginning of 2010 beyond Russia there were 16 % in the market of services in building and atomic power station operation in the world. According to research of RBC from July, 2010, for today "Atomstrojeksport" which basic shareholder is the state corporation Rosatom, reserves 20 % of the world market of building of the atomic power station. This share can increase to 25 %. By data for March, 2010, Rosatom builds 10 nuclear power units in Russia and 5 abroad.
In Russia 10 atomic power stations on which 31 power unit is maintained are constructed. Since 1991 3 new blocks have been entered into a system. On the beginning of 2006 in a stage of building there were three more.
In 2007 the Russian atomic power stations have developed 159,79 млрд кВт·ч the electric power that has made 15,7 % from the general development in the country. Over 4 % of the electric power made in the European part of Russia and in Ural Mountains, it is necessary on the atomic power station. In 2009 the gain of manufacture of uranium has made 25 % in comparison with 2008
After start of the power unit of the Volgodonsk atomic power station in 2010, the chairman of the government of Russia V.V.Putin has sounded plans of finishing of nuclear generation in the general power balance of Russia from 16 % to 20-30 %.
Now Rosatom posesses 40 % of the world market of services on enrichment of uranium and 17 % of the market on delivery of nuclear fuel for the atomic power station. Russia has large complex contracts in the field of atomic engineering with India, Bangladesh, Armenia, Venezuela, China, Vietnam, Iran, Turkey, Bulgaria, Belarus and with a number of the countries of the Central Europe. Complex contracts in designing, building of nuclear power units, and also in deliveries of fuel with Argentina, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Qatar are probable. Negotiations are carried on for joint projects on working out of uranium deposits with Mongolia.
In Russia there is a big national program on development of the nuclear power including building of 28 nuclear reactors the next years, in addition to 30, already constructed in the Soviet period. So, input of the first and second power units of the New Voronezh atomic power station-2 should take place in 2013—2015гг.
The federal agency on atomic energy of Russia conducts not having analogs in the world the project on creation of unique floating atomic power stations of low power. In 2010 замглавы concern "Rosenergoatom" has declared that works on building of the first copy go under the schedule. Readiness of station — the end of 2012, an exit on operation — in 2013.
Ветроэнергетика. The technical potential of wind energy of Russia is estimated from above 50 000 млрд kvt·ch/year. The economic potential makes approximately 260 млрд kvt·ch/year, that is about 30 % of manufacture of the electric power all power stations of Russia. The established capacity of wind-driver power stations in the country for 2006 makes nearby 15 МВт.
One of the greatest ветроэлектростанций Russia (5,1 МВт) is located around settlement Kulikovo of Zelenograd area of the Kaliningrad region. Its mid-annual development makes about 6 million кВт·ч.
All Russian geothermal power stations are located on Kamchatka and Kuriles, the total electropotential пароводных a term of one Kamchatka is estimated in 1 ГВт working electric capacity. The Russian potential is realized only in size not by much more than 80 МВт the established capacity (2009) and about 450 million кВт·ч annual development (2009).
Following the results of 2009 in Russia it has been made 1,04 трлн квт*ч the electric power (4 place in the world). The same year from Russia it has been exported 17,9 млрд квт*ч the electric power for the sum $789 million In 2010 it has been exported 19,0 млрд квт*ч the electric power for the sum $1,03 billion
As of 2009 in Russia is available hydraulic power stations 15 operating, completed and being in frozen building from above 1000 МВт and more than hundred hydroelectric power stations of smaller capacity. Atomic engineering. On the beginning of 2010 beyond Russia there were 16 % in the market of services in building and atomic power station operation in the world. According to research of RBC from July, 2010, for today "Atomstrojeksport" which basic shareholder is the state corporation Rosatom, reserves 20 % of the world market of building of the atomic power station. This share can increase to 25 %. By data for March, 2010, Rosatom builds 10 nuclear power units in Russia and 5 abroad.
In Russia 10 atomic power stations on which 31 power unit is maintained are constructed. Since 1991 3 new blocks have been entered into a system. On the beginning of 2006 in a stage of building there were three more.
In 2007 the Russian atomic power stations have developed 159,79 млрд кВт·ч the electric power that has made 15,7 % from the general development in the country. Over 4 % of the electric power made in the European part of Russia and in Ural Mountains, it is necessary on the atomic power station. In 2009 the gain of manufacture of uranium has made 25 % in comparison with 2008
After start of the power unit of the Volgodonsk atomic power station in 2010, the chairman of the government of Russia V.V.Putin has sounded plans of finishing of nuclear generation in the general power balance of Russia from 16 % to 20-30 %.
Now Rosatom posesses 40 % of the world market of services on enrichment of uranium and 17 % of the market on delivery of nuclear fuel for the atomic power station. Russia has large complex contracts in the field of atomic engineering with India, Bangladesh, Armenia, Venezuela, China, Vietnam, Iran, Turkey, Bulgaria, Belarus and with a number of the countries of the Central Europe. Complex contracts in designing, building of nuclear power units, and also in deliveries of fuel with Argentina, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Qatar are probable. Negotiations are carried on for joint projects on working out of uranium deposits with Mongolia.
In Russia there is a big national program on development of the nuclear power including building of 28 nuclear reactors the next years, in addition to 30, already constructed in the Soviet period. So, input of the first and second power units of the New Voronezh atomic power station-2 should take place in 2013—2015гг.
The federal agency on atomic energy of Russia conducts not having analogs in the world the project on creation of unique floating atomic power stations of low power. In 2010 замглавы concern "Rosenergoatom" has declared that works on building of the first copy go under the schedule. Readiness of station — the end of 2012, an exit on operation — in 2013.
Ветроэнергетика. The technical potential of wind energy of Russia is estimated from above 50 000 млрд kvt·ch/year. The economic potential makes approximately 260 млрд kvt·ch/year, that is about 30 % of manufacture of the electric power all power stations of Russia. The established capacity of wind-driver power stations in the country for 2006 makes nearby 15 МВт.
One of the greatest ветроэлектростанций Russia (5,1 МВт) is located around settlement Kulikovo of Zelenograd area of the Kaliningrad region. Its mid-annual development makes about 6 million кВт·ч.
All Russian geothermal power stations are located on Kamchatka and Kuriles, the total electropotential пароводных a term of one Kamchatka is estimated in 1 ГВт working electric capacity. The Russian potential is realized only in size not by much more than 80 МВт the established capacity (2009) and about 450 million кВт·ч annual development (2009).
Saturday, January 21, 2012
The economic crisis in 2012 is predicted as it will be reflected in the market of real estate of Bishkek?
Many are excited with a question: «How to expect the economic crises similar to volume, what has burst in 2008 to smooth their negative consequences?». In the last врея in the market of real estate of Bishkek growth is observed, but it will reach what limits and whether there will be again falling in 2 times as it was some years ago? It is quite possible if to understand fundamental laws of economic development.
Alexander Ajvazov, independent analyst
The second wave of crisis expects us in 2012-2015 in this crisis it is possible to expect a collapse of the oil prices to level of their market balance at 25-35$ for barrel. During the same time there will be a wreck of the present world financial system based on US dollar, as to virtual monetary unit. The prices for gold will fly up to heavens (quite probably achievement of such heights, as 2-3 thousand $ for ounce) since the huge weight of speculative capitals will try to wait «an economic storm» in «silent gold harbor». And only then preconditions for creation of a new world financial system without which further the world economy already simply can't develop will be generated.
Many are excited with a question: «How to expect the economic crises similar to volume, what has burst in 2008 at least to smooth their negative consequences?». It is quite possible if to understand fundamental laws of economic development. In 2004 of V.I.Pantin, leaning against the theory of the big business cycles of outstanding Russian economist N.D.Kondrateva, has absolutely precisely foretold that the world economic crisis will begin in 2008. The author of these lines in 2006 repeatedly wrote in the articles that world crisis will begin not earlier 2008 and not later than 2010.
And for half a year prior to the beginning of crisis the prices for oil grow in the article «Why?», leaning against N.D.Kondrateva's same theory, it was possible not only to prove to me inevitability of the fast beginning of this crisis, but also to predict falling of the oil prices to their real market cost. Hasn't passed also half a year from the moment of article writing as the prices for oil with 147$ have fallen to 33$ for barrel, having shown to the whole world true market price of supply and demand of prepotent raw materials of the XX-th century. The others more than 100$ is there was the speculative margin which has arisen owing to leaving of the financial capital, felt approaching crisis, from real economy in virtual.
When new crisis will begin?
In the autumn of 2008 of the beginning right after of crisis we from A.B.Kobjakovym have written article «Nikolay Kondratyev, as a crisis mirror» in which have in detail explained the reasons and the mechanism of formation of a present world economic crisis, and those consequences in which it will result world economy the next decade. And in a year when crisis was in the heat, academician A.A.Akaev, V.I.Pantin and the author of these lines, leaning against N.D.Kondrateva's theory, have developed the schedule of the most probable development of world economy till 2020.
According to this schedule the world gross national product fluctuating till 2008 round a dashed line designated Y (o), has sharply left downwards, having changed a picture of development of world economy. Recessions and liftings on this schedule are not any way drawn curve, and carefully counted factors of changes of world gross national product. All the matter is that approximately, time in half a century occurrence in a falling phase four business cycles of different duration coincides at once on time and there is a resonance effect. So in 2007-2008гг. There was a resonance effect, when in cycles: Китчина, Zhjugljara, the Smith and Kondratyev practically have been simultaneously passed the top peak points of development, and the recession phase has begun.
The diagram 1. The Most probable development of world economy till 2020
Cycles of Kitchina are short-term business cycles with the characteristic period 3-5 years opened in 1920th years by English economist Joseph Kitchinym. Within the limits of a cycle of Kitchina there is an infringement and restoration of market balance of supply and demand of the goods in the market to which there corresponds certain level and a parity of market prices. Balance of the first order named N.D.Kondratev balance in the market, Kitchina reached in a cycle. Present recession of a cycle of Kitchina was showed in sharp falling of world demand for the majority of the goods therefore in its bottom point in 2009 the volume of world trade according to the WTO has fallen off on 12 %.
Cycles of Zhjugljara are intermediate term business cycles with the characteristic period in 7-11 years. The French economist Klemana Zhjugljara, one of the first described these cycles is named by name. Unlike cycles of Kitchina within the limits of cycles of Zhjugljara we observe fluctuations not simply in volumes of the goods and commodity-material stocks in warehouses of sellers and manufacturers, but also in levels of loading of existing capacities, in unemployment growth, and as in decrease in volumes of investments into updating of an active part of fixed capital. Cycles of Zhjugljara in detail analyzed in K.Marks's "Capital", and N.Kondratev named the balance reached in these cycles, balance of the second order. Occurrence in recession of a cycle of Zhjugljara was marked by essential decrease in 2008-2009 of loading of capacities, sharp growth of unemployment and considerable decrease in rates of updating of fixed capital.
Cycles of the Smith are business cycles with the characteristic period approximately in 20-22 years. Have been opened in 1930 Nobel prize winner Simon Kuznets who connected these cycles with demographic processes and respective alterations in building volumes, therefore he named their "building" cycles. Now cycles of the Smith are considered in wider aspect, as infrastructural cycles. Besides, the big cycles of the prices for real estate well coincide with a cycle of the Smith. Recession in a cycle of the Smith in 2007-2008 was showed in mortgage crisis and sharp reduction of volumes of building in housing, industrial and infrastructural spheres of the developed countries, and as by falling of the prices for habitation
The big business cycles Kondratyev (K-cycles) proceed 40-50 years and consist of two waves - bearish and повышательной. In 2008 the world economy was included into a bearish wave of the sixth K-cycle in which process will occur the formation of new sixth technological way (THAT) based on nano - bio- and other newest technologies without which development the further growth of world economy will be impossible. But Kondratyev warned that «intermediate-term cycles (Kitchina, Zhjugljara, the Smith - А.А.), having for the bearish period of the big cycle, should be characterized by special duration and depth of recession, brevity and weakness of liftings». Therefore superfluous optimism of world leaders from short-term lifting in a cycle of Kitchina in which there is a world economy now, is obviously premature since after lifting new falling in a cycle of Kitchina will begin.
All these cycles have different duration and reach the bottom points of falling through different time intervals, therefore after initial resonant falling they start to work in an antiphase, and after synchronous falling we have not any homogeneous process, and the sum of fluctuations of different frequency, amplitude and directions. Till 2008 world gross national product fluctuated round a dashed line designated on schedule Y (o), but financial crisis and a collapse in the American credit market, have led to falling of mass demand and consumption reduction in the USA and other developed countries of the world. All it, in turn, has caused scale reduction of world production. I want to pay special attention that the given schedule was made in the autumn of 2009 when world economy still continued the falling, but authors already then expected its small growth in 2010-11, as has proved to be true in practice.
At the expense of government programs of financing of demand in the developed countries world economy falling in a cycle of Kitchina has been suspended already by the end of 2009. Such programs of state financing of demand of the population as «cars for jalopies» etc., have cleared away the commodity-material stocks which have accumulated in warehouses and have generated demand for their replenishment. A huge role additional demand has played from China which has sharply increased centralized investments into the economy to reorient it from an export orientation on expansion of internal demand. Slow revival of manufacture at the expense of replenishment of warehouse stocks and satisfaction of growing Chinese demand for raw materials and the modern process equipment which in the Peoples Republic of China was delivered by Japan and Germany, the first of the developed countries overcome falling of the economy at the expense of the Chinese demand has begun.
But mass injection of liquidity in economy of the developed countries have sharply increased and without that considerable deficiencies of the state budgets and have led to uncontrollable growth of public debts that has demanded rigid reduction of the State expenditure. Huge growth of the state investments has already led to uncontrollable growth of inflation in China, and has forced the government of the Peoples Republic of China to toughen the financial policy that will lead to inevitable decrease in the Chinese demand in the world markets. Falling of consumer crediting, growth of savings of the population on "rainy day", a high rate of unemployment and essential reduction of the State expenditure inevitably in the nearest will cause year-two new recession in the world commodity markets within the limits of a cycle of Kitchina.
The high rate of unemployment, low level of loading of capacities, absence of sufficient crediting of real sector of economy in the developed countries and falling of investments in fixed capital updating testify that within the limits of a cycle of Zhjugljara the world economy will be in depression, at least, to 2013-14 In a cycle of the Smith the world economy will reach the bottom point of falling not earlier than 2017-2018 to what absence of growth in the building industry, low demand and falling of the prices for habitation testifies. Depression in a cycle of the Smith will last to 2018-19 when in a cycle of Zhjugljara the new phase of crisis will already begin. In Kondratyev's cycle the bearish wave will come to the end not earlier than 2018-20 when it will be generated new THAT.
Thus, the second wave of crisis or the second crisis of a bearish wave of the sixth K-cycle expects us in 2012-2015 when cycles of Zhjugljara, the Smith and Kondratyev will be in a depression condition, and the cycle of Kitchina again will enter into a recession phase. In this crisis it is possible to expect a collapse of the oil prices to level of their market balance at 25-35$ for barrel. During the same time there will be a wreck of the present world financial system based on US dollar, as to virtual monetary unit. The prices for gold will fly up to heavens (quite probably achievement of such heights, as 2-3 thousand $ for ounce) since the huge weight of speculative capitals will try to wait «an economic storm» in «silent gold harbor». And only then preconditions for creation of a new world financial system without which further the world economy already simply can't develop will be generated.
After 2015, at the expense of lifting in cycles of Kitchina and Zhjugljara, but against proceeding depression in cycles of the Smith and Kondratyev, world economy revival will begin. But in 2017-19 we are expected by the new serious crisis connected with transition of cycles of Kitchina and Zhjugljara in new recession though in cycles of the Smith and Kondratyev slow revival will begin. And only, since 2020 when in cycles of the Smith and Kitchina lifting will begin and it will be generated кластер basic innovations the sixth THAT, the world economy will pass on повышательную the K-cycle wave. And after 2025 when lifting will come and in a cycle of Zhjugljara, the world will pass to stable growth on the basis of new THAT which basis, according to academicians A.A.Akaeva and V.A.Sadovnichego, will make: «computer technologies, biotechnology and gene engineering, multimedia, including global intellectual information networks, superconductors and non-polluting power».
Oil - blood of modern economy
In a XIX-th century Great Britain for 100 years has established the world supremacy, the first having carried out Industrial revolution and having generated the second THAT, based on the steam engine and prepotent power resources of an epoch of steam – coal. Fourth THAT, based on an internal combustion engine and oil as the prepotent power resource, the first have seized the USA. Last 80 years without oil there can not be a power, without it there will not go cars and trains, planes won't depart and the ships won't float, without it the world economy can't simply function. Therefore the USA became after the Second World War the leader of world economic development, and the price for oil - a prepotent power resource, as well as the prices for gold, are mirror (i.e. the return, as in a mirror) reflection of qualitative changes of a world economic conjuncture.
When the world market is on повышательной to a wave of the development of the price for oil (as the goods possessing absolute liquidity) and gold (as a universal equivalent and as a measure of value of all other goods) in full conformity with the Kondratevsky theory of cycles are at a minimum level. And though demand both for oil, and for gold constantly grows, term of money of their cost is defined, as well as at the usual ordinary goods, supply and demand fluctuations, and their market cost balances round the manufacture and transportation price. But as soon as повышательная the wave settles potential of the growth and there is a qualitative infringement of universal market condition, at once capitals start to escape in oil and in gold.
Alexander Ajvazov, independent analyst
The second wave of crisis expects us in 2012-2015 in this crisis it is possible to expect a collapse of the oil prices to level of their market balance at 25-35$ for barrel. During the same time there will be a wreck of the present world financial system based on US dollar, as to virtual monetary unit. The prices for gold will fly up to heavens (quite probably achievement of such heights, as 2-3 thousand $ for ounce) since the huge weight of speculative capitals will try to wait «an economic storm» in «silent gold harbor». And only then preconditions for creation of a new world financial system without which further the world economy already simply can't develop will be generated.
Many are excited with a question: «How to expect the economic crises similar to volume, what has burst in 2008 at least to smooth their negative consequences?». It is quite possible if to understand fundamental laws of economic development. In 2004 of V.I.Pantin, leaning against the theory of the big business cycles of outstanding Russian economist N.D.Kondrateva, has absolutely precisely foretold that the world economic crisis will begin in 2008. The author of these lines in 2006 repeatedly wrote in the articles that world crisis will begin not earlier 2008 and not later than 2010.
And for half a year prior to the beginning of crisis the prices for oil grow in the article «Why?», leaning against N.D.Kondrateva's same theory, it was possible not only to prove to me inevitability of the fast beginning of this crisis, but also to predict falling of the oil prices to their real market cost. Hasn't passed also half a year from the moment of article writing as the prices for oil with 147$ have fallen to 33$ for barrel, having shown to the whole world true market price of supply and demand of prepotent raw materials of the XX-th century. The others more than 100$ is there was the speculative margin which has arisen owing to leaving of the financial capital, felt approaching crisis, from real economy in virtual.
When new crisis will begin?
In the autumn of 2008 of the beginning right after of crisis we from A.B.Kobjakovym have written article «Nikolay Kondratyev, as a crisis mirror» in which have in detail explained the reasons and the mechanism of formation of a present world economic crisis, and those consequences in which it will result world economy the next decade. And in a year when crisis was in the heat, academician A.A.Akaev, V.I.Pantin and the author of these lines, leaning against N.D.Kondrateva's theory, have developed the schedule of the most probable development of world economy till 2020.
According to this schedule the world gross national product fluctuating till 2008 round a dashed line designated Y (o), has sharply left downwards, having changed a picture of development of world economy. Recessions and liftings on this schedule are not any way drawn curve, and carefully counted factors of changes of world gross national product. All the matter is that approximately, time in half a century occurrence in a falling phase four business cycles of different duration coincides at once on time and there is a resonance effect. So in 2007-2008гг. There was a resonance effect, when in cycles: Китчина, Zhjugljara, the Smith and Kondratyev practically have been simultaneously passed the top peak points of development, and the recession phase has begun.
The diagram 1. The Most probable development of world economy till 2020
Cycles of Kitchina are short-term business cycles with the characteristic period 3-5 years opened in 1920th years by English economist Joseph Kitchinym. Within the limits of a cycle of Kitchina there is an infringement and restoration of market balance of supply and demand of the goods in the market to which there corresponds certain level and a parity of market prices. Balance of the first order named N.D.Kondratev balance in the market, Kitchina reached in a cycle. Present recession of a cycle of Kitchina was showed in sharp falling of world demand for the majority of the goods therefore in its bottom point in 2009 the volume of world trade according to the WTO has fallen off on 12 %.
Cycles of Zhjugljara are intermediate term business cycles with the characteristic period in 7-11 years. The French economist Klemana Zhjugljara, one of the first described these cycles is named by name. Unlike cycles of Kitchina within the limits of cycles of Zhjugljara we observe fluctuations not simply in volumes of the goods and commodity-material stocks in warehouses of sellers and manufacturers, but also in levels of loading of existing capacities, in unemployment growth, and as in decrease in volumes of investments into updating of an active part of fixed capital. Cycles of Zhjugljara in detail analyzed in K.Marks's "Capital", and N.Kondratev named the balance reached in these cycles, balance of the second order. Occurrence in recession of a cycle of Zhjugljara was marked by essential decrease in 2008-2009 of loading of capacities, sharp growth of unemployment and considerable decrease in rates of updating of fixed capital.
Cycles of the Smith are business cycles with the characteristic period approximately in 20-22 years. Have been opened in 1930 Nobel prize winner Simon Kuznets who connected these cycles with demographic processes and respective alterations in building volumes, therefore he named their "building" cycles. Now cycles of the Smith are considered in wider aspect, as infrastructural cycles. Besides, the big cycles of the prices for real estate well coincide with a cycle of the Smith. Recession in a cycle of the Smith in 2007-2008 was showed in mortgage crisis and sharp reduction of volumes of building in housing, industrial and infrastructural spheres of the developed countries, and as by falling of the prices for habitation
The big business cycles Kondratyev (K-cycles) proceed 40-50 years and consist of two waves - bearish and повышательной. In 2008 the world economy was included into a bearish wave of the sixth K-cycle in which process will occur the formation of new sixth technological way (THAT) based on nano - bio- and other newest technologies without which development the further growth of world economy will be impossible. But Kondratyev warned that «intermediate-term cycles (Kitchina, Zhjugljara, the Smith - А.А.), having for the bearish period of the big cycle, should be characterized by special duration and depth of recession, brevity and weakness of liftings». Therefore superfluous optimism of world leaders from short-term lifting in a cycle of Kitchina in which there is a world economy now, is obviously premature since after lifting new falling in a cycle of Kitchina will begin.
All these cycles have different duration and reach the bottom points of falling through different time intervals, therefore after initial resonant falling they start to work in an antiphase, and after synchronous falling we have not any homogeneous process, and the sum of fluctuations of different frequency, amplitude and directions. Till 2008 world gross national product fluctuated round a dashed line designated on schedule Y (o), but financial crisis and a collapse in the American credit market, have led to falling of mass demand and consumption reduction in the USA and other developed countries of the world. All it, in turn, has caused scale reduction of world production. I want to pay special attention that the given schedule was made in the autumn of 2009 when world economy still continued the falling, but authors already then expected its small growth in 2010-11, as has proved to be true in practice.
At the expense of government programs of financing of demand in the developed countries world economy falling in a cycle of Kitchina has been suspended already by the end of 2009. Such programs of state financing of demand of the population as «cars for jalopies» etc., have cleared away the commodity-material stocks which have accumulated in warehouses and have generated demand for their replenishment. A huge role additional demand has played from China which has sharply increased centralized investments into the economy to reorient it from an export orientation on expansion of internal demand. Slow revival of manufacture at the expense of replenishment of warehouse stocks and satisfaction of growing Chinese demand for raw materials and the modern process equipment which in the Peoples Republic of China was delivered by Japan and Germany, the first of the developed countries overcome falling of the economy at the expense of the Chinese demand has begun.
But mass injection of liquidity in economy of the developed countries have sharply increased and without that considerable deficiencies of the state budgets and have led to uncontrollable growth of public debts that has demanded rigid reduction of the State expenditure. Huge growth of the state investments has already led to uncontrollable growth of inflation in China, and has forced the government of the Peoples Republic of China to toughen the financial policy that will lead to inevitable decrease in the Chinese demand in the world markets. Falling of consumer crediting, growth of savings of the population on "rainy day", a high rate of unemployment and essential reduction of the State expenditure inevitably in the nearest will cause year-two new recession in the world commodity markets within the limits of a cycle of Kitchina.
The high rate of unemployment, low level of loading of capacities, absence of sufficient crediting of real sector of economy in the developed countries and falling of investments in fixed capital updating testify that within the limits of a cycle of Zhjugljara the world economy will be in depression, at least, to 2013-14 In a cycle of the Smith the world economy will reach the bottom point of falling not earlier than 2017-2018 to what absence of growth in the building industry, low demand and falling of the prices for habitation testifies. Depression in a cycle of the Smith will last to 2018-19 when in a cycle of Zhjugljara the new phase of crisis will already begin. In Kondratyev's cycle the bearish wave will come to the end not earlier than 2018-20 when it will be generated new THAT.
Thus, the second wave of crisis or the second crisis of a bearish wave of the sixth K-cycle expects us in 2012-2015 when cycles of Zhjugljara, the Smith and Kondratyev will be in a depression condition, and the cycle of Kitchina again will enter into a recession phase. In this crisis it is possible to expect a collapse of the oil prices to level of their market balance at 25-35$ for barrel. During the same time there will be a wreck of the present world financial system based on US dollar, as to virtual monetary unit. The prices for gold will fly up to heavens (quite probably achievement of such heights, as 2-3 thousand $ for ounce) since the huge weight of speculative capitals will try to wait «an economic storm» in «silent gold harbor». And only then preconditions for creation of a new world financial system without which further the world economy already simply can't develop will be generated.
After 2015, at the expense of lifting in cycles of Kitchina and Zhjugljara, but against proceeding depression in cycles of the Smith and Kondratyev, world economy revival will begin. But in 2017-19 we are expected by the new serious crisis connected with transition of cycles of Kitchina and Zhjugljara in new recession though in cycles of the Smith and Kondratyev slow revival will begin. And only, since 2020 when in cycles of the Smith and Kitchina lifting will begin and it will be generated кластер basic innovations the sixth THAT, the world economy will pass on повышательную the K-cycle wave. And after 2025 when lifting will come and in a cycle of Zhjugljara, the world will pass to stable growth on the basis of new THAT which basis, according to academicians A.A.Akaeva and V.A.Sadovnichego, will make: «computer technologies, biotechnology and gene engineering, multimedia, including global intellectual information networks, superconductors and non-polluting power».
Oil - blood of modern economy
In a XIX-th century Great Britain for 100 years has established the world supremacy, the first having carried out Industrial revolution and having generated the second THAT, based on the steam engine and prepotent power resources of an epoch of steam – coal. Fourth THAT, based on an internal combustion engine and oil as the prepotent power resource, the first have seized the USA. Last 80 years without oil there can not be a power, without it there will not go cars and trains, planes won't depart and the ships won't float, without it the world economy can't simply function. Therefore the USA became after the Second World War the leader of world economic development, and the price for oil - a prepotent power resource, as well as the prices for gold, are mirror (i.e. the return, as in a mirror) reflection of qualitative changes of a world economic conjuncture.
When the world market is on повышательной to a wave of the development of the price for oil (as the goods possessing absolute liquidity) and gold (as a universal equivalent and as a measure of value of all other goods) in full conformity with the Kondratevsky theory of cycles are at a minimum level. And though demand both for oil, and for gold constantly grows, term of money of their cost is defined, as well as at the usual ordinary goods, supply and demand fluctuations, and their market cost balances round the manufacture and transportation price. But as soon as повышательная the wave settles potential of the growth and there is a qualitative infringement of universal market condition, at once capitals start to escape in oil and in gold.
13 ideas for world rescue
Businessmen, economists and journalists offer recipes of struggle against global crisis
Debt crisis was threw on the countries of "kernel" of Europe, the American economy and a labor market are restored very slowly, but economy of the Asian countries and, first of all, China and India is slowed down. In magazine Foreign Policy have interrogated 13 experts, each of which has offered the council of struggle by world economy problems.On the basis of their councils the magazine has published the plan of an overcoming the crisis:
1. It is necessary to write off all world debts. It was offered by Pol Kedrovski, the investor, the businessman, the writer, one of editors Bloomberg, and also the author of the popular blog devoted to financial subjects. Sovereign debts prevent to grow to the European economy, debts under credits prevent to consume to Americans - and on getting rid of them, years will leave. In this time China becomes the largest consumer in the world, and the developed countries will lose the competitiveness. Why not to allow to economy to begin all with zero?
2. It is necessary to employ all for work, Dajana Kojl, the economist, the former adviser of English exchequer, and now head BBC Trust, a management company of broadcasting company BBC is assured. Attempts to save on expenses of the budget and to dismiss state employees turn around unemployment growth, decrease in consumption and a new coil of crisis. The young unemployed can turn to "the lost generation", and the state in the future should spend millions for their maintenance. The authorities of the European countries and the USA need to look narrowly at experience of America of times of Great depression - then the special governments which employed the unemployed were created. For support of banks it is spent about $1 трлн in a year, and employment of all unemployed will manage more cheaply.
3. To collect the new data about world economy, offers Pol Saffo, teacher Stenforda specializing on forecasting. Till now economists believed that the world is arranged simply enough: it is necessary to find only in each case the balance defined by rational behavior of economic subjects which economy normal state and is. But last years have proved that it not so - the global economy became such big and various that began to remind global economy - in it all is interconnected, the phenomena are diverse also them as difficult to predict. To understand as all works actually, there is not enough data. Саффо suggests to collect all possible data worldwide and to lay out them in open access.
4. It is necessary to cut military expenses, Barni Frank, a member of democratic party of the USA, the expert under the finance is assured. Many economists develop a theme "armed кейнсианства" - stimulations economy through purchase of arms. Frank suggests to arrive strictly on the contrary: instead of rockets and the newest беспилотников to be spent for hiring of firemen, policemen and teachers. The USA, for example, cut down from the crisis beginning поллмиллиона workplaces for "state employees". To dominate in the world it is better economically, and "war with terrorism" obviously should cost cheaper, than present American expenditure for defense in $650 млрд in a year.
5. It is necessary to accelerate inflation, two American professors - Mentsi Chinn and Jeffrey Friden consider. High inflation will help to "burn" debts in the developed countries, and also will help to resolve a political conflict - who should pay debts of the developed countries. Inflation should be up to standard of 4-6 % is will help economy, but won't strongly strike on the population.
6. To spend trillion dollars for an infrastructure, Justin Jufu Linn, the senior economist of the World bank offers. It will help to win unemployment, to accelerate economic growth and will lower a disbalance in economy both developed, and developing countries. Lynn is assured that it is investments into the future.
7. It is necessary to lift considerably a salary minimum level, economist James Gelbrajt considers. Now the minimum salary in the USA at an o'clock, it it is necessary to lift $7,25 of about $12. Actually it will untie political knot: neither the population, nor the government, neither the congress, nor banks aren't ready to spend, but money is at large corporations.
8. To solve problems, according to Viveka Vadhvy, the scientist and the businessman, it is possible, thinking of the smaller. For example, to finance innovations the government should not in the large research centers, and in small-scale business.
9. To pacify mad currency system, David Smik, the writer and the head of consulting agency calls. To write-off of debts in the world stir a disbalance of currency systems and danger of trading wars. Manipulate exchange rates not only China, but also, for example, Japan. It is necessary to develop transparent regulations of the currency market for all.
10. Buy more yachts, the professor of economy of Robber Frenk advises. The economist advises to fill state budgets at the expense of introduction of the tax to superfluous consumption of rich households.
11. To be engaged in health, offers Ester Dajson, the former journalist who is engaged in investments and business. Дайсон suggests to concentrate on investments into the human capital, after all bad health of the population manages to the state in billions dollars, and also turns around decrease in efficiency of economy.
12. To build "green" cities, advises to write Alex Steffen. The next 40 years the world waits building boom. The economy of space, care of ecology and use of new technologies become stimulus for development.
13. Take vacation, the American writer and philosopher Daniel Dennett offers. It is necessary to create system which to everyone will leave enough free time is will urge on creative thinking and will lead to occurrence of many new ideas.
Debt crisis was threw on the countries of "kernel" of Europe, the American economy and a labor market are restored very slowly, but economy of the Asian countries and, first of all, China and India is slowed down. In magazine Foreign Policy have interrogated 13 experts, each of which has offered the council of struggle by world economy problems.On the basis of their councils the magazine has published the plan of an overcoming the crisis:
1. It is necessary to write off all world debts. It was offered by Pol Kedrovski, the investor, the businessman, the writer, one of editors Bloomberg, and also the author of the popular blog devoted to financial subjects. Sovereign debts prevent to grow to the European economy, debts under credits prevent to consume to Americans - and on getting rid of them, years will leave. In this time China becomes the largest consumer in the world, and the developed countries will lose the competitiveness. Why not to allow to economy to begin all with zero?
2. It is necessary to employ all for work, Dajana Kojl, the economist, the former adviser of English exchequer, and now head BBC Trust, a management company of broadcasting company BBC is assured. Attempts to save on expenses of the budget and to dismiss state employees turn around unemployment growth, decrease in consumption and a new coil of crisis. The young unemployed can turn to "the lost generation", and the state in the future should spend millions for their maintenance. The authorities of the European countries and the USA need to look narrowly at experience of America of times of Great depression - then the special governments which employed the unemployed were created. For support of banks it is spent about $1 трлн in a year, and employment of all unemployed will manage more cheaply.
3. To collect the new data about world economy, offers Pol Saffo, teacher Stenforda specializing on forecasting. Till now economists believed that the world is arranged simply enough: it is necessary to find only in each case the balance defined by rational behavior of economic subjects which economy normal state and is. But last years have proved that it not so - the global economy became such big and various that began to remind global economy - in it all is interconnected, the phenomena are diverse also them as difficult to predict. To understand as all works actually, there is not enough data. Саффо suggests to collect all possible data worldwide and to lay out them in open access.
4. It is necessary to cut military expenses, Barni Frank, a member of democratic party of the USA, the expert under the finance is assured. Many economists develop a theme "armed кейнсианства" - stimulations economy through purchase of arms. Frank suggests to arrive strictly on the contrary: instead of rockets and the newest беспилотников to be spent for hiring of firemen, policemen and teachers. The USA, for example, cut down from the crisis beginning поллмиллиона workplaces for "state employees". To dominate in the world it is better economically, and "war with terrorism" obviously should cost cheaper, than present American expenditure for defense in $650 млрд in a year.
5. It is necessary to accelerate inflation, two American professors - Mentsi Chinn and Jeffrey Friden consider. High inflation will help to "burn" debts in the developed countries, and also will help to resolve a political conflict - who should pay debts of the developed countries. Inflation should be up to standard of 4-6 % is will help economy, but won't strongly strike on the population.
6. To spend trillion dollars for an infrastructure, Justin Jufu Linn, the senior economist of the World bank offers. It will help to win unemployment, to accelerate economic growth and will lower a disbalance in economy both developed, and developing countries. Lynn is assured that it is investments into the future.
7. It is necessary to lift considerably a salary minimum level, economist James Gelbrajt considers. Now the minimum salary in the USA at an o'clock, it it is necessary to lift $7,25 of about $12. Actually it will untie political knot: neither the population, nor the government, neither the congress, nor banks aren't ready to spend, but money is at large corporations.
8. To solve problems, according to Viveka Vadhvy, the scientist and the businessman, it is possible, thinking of the smaller. For example, to finance innovations the government should not in the large research centers, and in small-scale business.
9. To pacify mad currency system, David Smik, the writer and the head of consulting agency calls. To write-off of debts in the world stir a disbalance of currency systems and danger of trading wars. Manipulate exchange rates not only China, but also, for example, Japan. It is necessary to develop transparent regulations of the currency market for all.
10. Buy more yachts, the professor of economy of Robber Frenk advises. The economist advises to fill state budgets at the expense of introduction of the tax to superfluous consumption of rich households.
11. To be engaged in health, offers Ester Dajson, the former journalist who is engaged in investments and business. Дайсон suggests to concentrate on investments into the human capital, after all bad health of the population manages to the state in billions dollars, and also turns around decrease in efficiency of economy.
12. To build "green" cities, advises to write Alex Steffen. The next 40 years the world waits building boom. The economy of space, care of ecology and use of new technologies become stimulus for development.
13. Take vacation, the American writer and philosopher Daniel Dennett offers. It is necessary to create system which to everyone will leave enough free time is will urge on creative thinking and will lead to occurrence of many new ideas.
The crisis forecast in Russia
To assume that crisis passes Russia, would be simply naive. Old American problems which have provoked the first wave, completely haven't disappeared, so also serious problems in the European economy were added. All it will indirectly concern also our country as it is closely integrated into world economy. To wait that against crisis demand for raw materials which is a basis of the Russian export and on which receipts in our budget depend will raise, obviously it is not necessary.Accordingly, rates of increase of economy of Russia will lag behind also the pre-crisis. Rouble easing that will negatively affect purchasing capacity of the population Besides, can proceed. As the reason of growth of dollar in relation to the Russian currency besides universal flight from risks, it is possible to name also falling of the prices for oil which also will negatively affect a profitable part of the budget. It turns out that Russia can face the same problems, as Europe, and America. And it means that the forecast of crisis the unfavourable. All hope that world economic crises come and leave. The main thing that crisis 2011-2012 wasn't tightened also to us хватилосформированной by government «safety pillow».It has gloomy turned out, whether a lie? But the exit always is. Probably that that all world financial crises remained behind it is necessary to transfer money simply from financial sphere in real economy. And it is quite possible. For certain the world history contains pair of similar examples – it is necessary to look only
A crisis is in America
That an economic crisis in the USA again collects force not at all empty words. Growth of GDP in 2 quarters fallen down to 1.3%, putting on the brakes 6-monthly renewal which began in the middle of 2009. Certainly, it is a yet not recession, but smoke is not without a fire. If so will go and farther, soon we will see the subzero rates of growth of economy. A labour-market gives quite alarm signals: he appears incapable to create not a single new workplace. It means that counting a servisnoorientirovannoy economy on some stabilizing to growth of indexes of employment is not necessary. Consequently, will not make happy other reports, signaling, that a crisis in the USA can purchase the second, and third wind.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Whether will mention world financial crisis 2011 – 2012 Russia?
As though, at times, it would be desirable the return, but all countries in world economy are closely interconnected. And it means that the problems arising in one region, will introduce sooner or later the corrective amendments in an economic situation of others. Therefore to think that the second wave of crisis will avoid Russia, would be, at least, fondly. Naturally, it will mention not only national economy, but also the financial market of the Russian Federation.
The currency market of Russia 2010 – 2011
In 2010 the Russian financial market showed restoration against a favorable conjuncture of a foreign market and revival in real sector of national economy. Pleased also the internal currency market of Russia. The Central Bank even could expand an interval of admissible values of cost бивалютной baskets for the purpose of increase of flexibility of a rouble exchange rate and restriction of the presence in the currency market. But it didn't prevent to be kept to rouble in the established limits, and all movements have been caused exclusively by factors of fundamental character.
Positive enough for the Russian currency was also the beginning of 2011. But latest developments have led to that, as the currency market of the Russian Federation has given in to a general panic. Anything surprising in it isn't present, as serious problems in an euro zone (including fall of a rating of Italy) compel investors to leave risky investments in safe actives. It means that demand for currencies – refuges grows: US dollar, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. And here the rouble a cohort doesn't enter into it. As a result, that easing of national currency was operated, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is compelled to sell foreign (only for September within the limits of currency interventions it has been sold 8 billion dollars). It means that the currency market of Russia 2011 any more so is independent and stable, as in 2010.
Let's glance in the future
If to speak about world economy not the best tendencies already are now observed. Besides problems of a sovereign debt in an euro area, practically everywhere there is a delay of rates of increase of gross national product. And, most likely, in the near future the situation won't change. New stimulus are necessary for world economy to return to those rates of increase which it has reached after attenuation of the first wave of crisis. And here still a situation aggravate and entered measures of rigid budgetary economy. And, even if new stimulating measures will be entered, the effect from them will be shown isn't momentary. Will pass at least 4-6 months before we will see positive results. Good it doesn't bear anything also to economy of Russia which basis is raw materials export. In the conditions of slump in production there is a natural reduction in demand for it which consequence is falling of the prices. In particular, oil already becomes cheaper, and its price has fallen below 100 dollars for barrel. It means that the Russian economy also can face the second wave of crisis. After all falling of the prices for "oil" not only threatens predicted growth of national economy in 2011, but also can provoke serious problems with budget filling in 2012. Without support from oil the rouble will be even more vulnerable. It is natural that in the light of similar events, the financial market of Russia 2011 will need strong support from the Central Bank.
To predict, what will be currency market development in Russia in the near future and as the exchange rate now business ungrateful will lead. Yes, it is an important component of economy, but nevertheless on a threshold of the next wave of crisis not it should excite investors. With confidence it is possible to tell only one: taking into account escalating integration of economy of Russia in world the Russian currency market and in 2012 will remain under influence not only national, but also external factors.
The currency market of Russia 2010 – 2011
In 2010 the Russian financial market showed restoration against a favorable conjuncture of a foreign market and revival in real sector of national economy. Pleased also the internal currency market of Russia. The Central Bank even could expand an interval of admissible values of cost бивалютной baskets for the purpose of increase of flexibility of a rouble exchange rate and restriction of the presence in the currency market. But it didn't prevent to be kept to rouble in the established limits, and all movements have been caused exclusively by factors of fundamental character.
Positive enough for the Russian currency was also the beginning of 2011. But latest developments have led to that, as the currency market of the Russian Federation has given in to a general panic. Anything surprising in it isn't present, as serious problems in an euro zone (including fall of a rating of Italy) compel investors to leave risky investments in safe actives. It means that demand for currencies – refuges grows: US dollar, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. And here the rouble a cohort doesn't enter into it. As a result, that easing of national currency was operated, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is compelled to sell foreign (only for September within the limits of currency interventions it has been sold 8 billion dollars). It means that the currency market of Russia 2011 any more so is independent and stable, as in 2010.
Let's glance in the future
If to speak about world economy not the best tendencies already are now observed. Besides problems of a sovereign debt in an euro area, practically everywhere there is a delay of rates of increase of gross national product. And, most likely, in the near future the situation won't change. New stimulus are necessary for world economy to return to those rates of increase which it has reached after attenuation of the first wave of crisis. And here still a situation aggravate and entered measures of rigid budgetary economy. And, even if new stimulating measures will be entered, the effect from them will be shown isn't momentary. Will pass at least 4-6 months before we will see positive results. Good it doesn't bear anything also to economy of Russia which basis is raw materials export. In the conditions of slump in production there is a natural reduction in demand for it which consequence is falling of the prices. In particular, oil already becomes cheaper, and its price has fallen below 100 dollars for barrel. It means that the Russian economy also can face the second wave of crisis. After all falling of the prices for "oil" not only threatens predicted growth of national economy in 2011, but also can provoke serious problems with budget filling in 2012. Without support from oil the rouble will be even more vulnerable. It is natural that in the light of similar events, the financial market of Russia 2011 will need strong support from the Central Bank.
To predict, what will be currency market development in Russia in the near future and as the exchange rate now business ungrateful will lead. Yes, it is an important component of economy, but nevertheless on a threshold of the next wave of crisis not it should excite investors. With confidence it is possible to tell only one: taking into account escalating integration of economy of Russia in world the Russian currency market and in 2012 will remain under influence not only national, but also external factors.
Financial crisis in September, 2011 till March, 2012 – from Ben Hjuit!
New undertakings
Within the next five-seven years our generation will receive the greatest possibility to reach vital well-being.
This letter – the original invitation. I invite you to divide with us this possibility and to make the life originally rich.
Next 12–18 months will represent the period of the intensive
Developments of global economy. But we can derive from this benefit
Only in the event that already now we will be engaged in the strategic
Planning. Our problem in ISIF – to transform global image
Way of reception by people of profit and creation of a monetary stream.
To explain told, I will a little tell to you about those considerable
Successes which we achieve today in business, anticipating the general
Restoration of economy which expects us shortly. These
Changes will mention as ours, and your private business, and in ours
To teamwork in 2011 it will be used more
The balanced strategy of growth.
We have already begun process of updating of structure and company strategy. It, in particular, means:
Start of individual training under program Drive to Wealth (advancement to well-being).
Start ISIF Global – our project within the limits of company ISIF,
The vital well-being directed on achievement in all it
Displays.
Start ISIF Fitness, the second ruler of our production – products of a healthy food.
All these new undertakings are directed on that you have as soon as possible felt positive changes in the life.
New partners
ISIF conducts cooperation with the international strategic partners from
Nine countries of the world. Together with these large business leaders we try
To solve the following question:
«How to provide incessant growth of our business, so that from
It all our Representatives, students and clients have as much as possible won?»
This intention defines both character of our business, and a position
Our company in the market. We steadfastly study the global economic
Context in which we should grow and develop. Also we
Have developed the strategy based on best коучинговых and
The consulting experts existing in the modern world.
New context
Context of our strategic development – two-planned:
"Why" we are engaged in it? And "when" it is necessary these to be engaged?
The answer to a question «why?» Allows to understand, what emotions us движут. From
It the quantity of energy which we can in turn depends
To give to the business. The answer to a question "when" helps, being guided on
The general economic tendencies to time, favorable and
Adverse for certain strategic courses.
If we have answered a question «why?» Concerning the business,
Answers to questions «that?» And «as?» Will appear by itself. Business, which
It was created with a support on a question «why?», doesn't need the verbose
Explanations.
Remember advertizing of production Apple – the simple picture accompanied
So laconic text. Also it is everything that it is necessary for us! And now
Present, as company Dell Computers – there would issue the same advertizing
There would be the long text with numerous lists and every possible
Explanations: "that" and "as" occurs in their business.
Company Apple mainly aspires to show, why its business
Is under construction on that and volume. Dell the problem "as" more interests. And
Production, and the prices for it in both cases reflect the corporate
To the politician. And power inputs too the corresponding. Apple slowly
Waits the clients. Corporate culture Dell is focused on
Sales. That is Dell it is compelled «to do business», and on Apple business
Works.
That is why we do an emphasis on why we have appeared in ISIF. Namely –
Because this School allows us to remain in a harmony with the
Vital values!
During the research conducted by us we very carefully found out,
Why have come here, and now would like to share with you the
Operating time.
How we can achieve it? Thanks to creation of the system allowing
To people from every corner of the globe to learn about a worthy way of finding of well-being and
Financial well-being.
And now I invite you to divide with us this mission.
Economic context
While «the global economic crisis» has forced all
To attend to the survival problems, many businessmen have made
Error, without having managed to estimate the present place in a business cycle.
Understanding it, you can beforehand plan the behavior in
The period of economic lifting and to define, at what stage of development
There is your business.
For cyclic development of business it is necessary to build it constantly
Infrastructure and regularly to invest in it – it is not obligatory money,
But at least energy and forces.
In an ideal you, of course, want, that in economic growth
Your enterprise has blossomed also. But if at this time you have to be engaged
Construction of a new infrastructure you miss an opportunity.
So one more key concept for us – "planning". When it is better
In total to be engaged in transformations, to achieve the maximum effect?
On the above-stated schedule it is shown, how will be restored the world
Economy and stock market. Now we endure the period of one of
The largest economic recessions in a world history – differently, that,
That is called as "economic depression».
But there are also good news: we know that it will follow, and it
Allows to plan now already developments of our business in the subsequent
Months and years.
On what basis we can predict the future? The matter is that
Each time when the world stock market (i.e. cumulative falls
Losses make more than 50 %, and it was observed in the history of all four
Time), restoration occurs under the same scheme: W-shapedly, as
Also it is shown on the schedule. An exit from less serious crises usually
It is carried out on L-shaped or V-shaped "trajectory".
As you can see, the schedule already now allows us to understand, when will begin
The period of long growth – at this time we бизнесы will begin all
To develop with great strides.
For the business similar to ours – that is such which is connected with
Certain vision – time of working out of the future strategy is simple
Invaluably. For us it means a conclusion to the market of a new ruler of products and
Forming of "deep-water" strategy at the bottom level of letter W, in
Expectation of the period of abundance and blossoming.
Within the next five-seven years our generation will receive the greatest possibility to reach vital well-being.
This letter – the original invitation. I invite you to divide with us this possibility and to make the life originally rich.
Next 12–18 months will represent the period of the intensive
Developments of global economy. But we can derive from this benefit
Only in the event that already now we will be engaged in the strategic
Planning. Our problem in ISIF – to transform global image
Way of reception by people of profit and creation of a monetary stream.
To explain told, I will a little tell to you about those considerable
Successes which we achieve today in business, anticipating the general
Restoration of economy which expects us shortly. These
Changes will mention as ours, and your private business, and in ours
To teamwork in 2011 it will be used more
The balanced strategy of growth.
We have already begun process of updating of structure and company strategy. It, in particular, means:
Start of individual training under program Drive to Wealth (advancement to well-being).
Start ISIF Global – our project within the limits of company ISIF,
The vital well-being directed on achievement in all it
Displays.
Start ISIF Fitness, the second ruler of our production – products of a healthy food.
All these new undertakings are directed on that you have as soon as possible felt positive changes in the life.
New partners
ISIF conducts cooperation with the international strategic partners from
Nine countries of the world. Together with these large business leaders we try
To solve the following question:
«How to provide incessant growth of our business, so that from
It all our Representatives, students and clients have as much as possible won?»
This intention defines both character of our business, and a position
Our company in the market. We steadfastly study the global economic
Context in which we should grow and develop. Also we
Have developed the strategy based on best коучинговых and
The consulting experts existing in the modern world.
New context
Context of our strategic development – two-planned:
"Why" we are engaged in it? And "when" it is necessary these to be engaged?
The answer to a question «why?» Allows to understand, what emotions us движут. From
It the quantity of energy which we can in turn depends
To give to the business. The answer to a question "when" helps, being guided on
The general economic tendencies to time, favorable and
Adverse for certain strategic courses.
If we have answered a question «why?» Concerning the business,
Answers to questions «that?» And «as?» Will appear by itself. Business, which
It was created with a support on a question «why?», doesn't need the verbose
Explanations.
Remember advertizing of production Apple – the simple picture accompanied
So laconic text. Also it is everything that it is necessary for us! And now
Present, as company Dell Computers – there would issue the same advertizing
There would be the long text with numerous lists and every possible
Explanations: "that" and "as" occurs in their business.
Company Apple mainly aspires to show, why its business
Is under construction on that and volume. Dell the problem "as" more interests. And
Production, and the prices for it in both cases reflect the corporate
To the politician. And power inputs too the corresponding. Apple slowly
Waits the clients. Corporate culture Dell is focused on
Sales. That is Dell it is compelled «to do business», and on Apple business
Works.
That is why we do an emphasis on why we have appeared in ISIF. Namely –
Because this School allows us to remain in a harmony with the
Vital values!
During the research conducted by us we very carefully found out,
Why have come here, and now would like to share with you the
Operating time.
How we can achieve it? Thanks to creation of the system allowing
To people from every corner of the globe to learn about a worthy way of finding of well-being and
Financial well-being.
And now I invite you to divide with us this mission.
Economic context
While «the global economic crisis» has forced all
To attend to the survival problems, many businessmen have made
Error, without having managed to estimate the present place in a business cycle.
Understanding it, you can beforehand plan the behavior in
The period of economic lifting and to define, at what stage of development
There is your business.
For cyclic development of business it is necessary to build it constantly
Infrastructure and regularly to invest in it – it is not obligatory money,
But at least energy and forces.
In an ideal you, of course, want, that in economic growth
Your enterprise has blossomed also. But if at this time you have to be engaged
Construction of a new infrastructure you miss an opportunity.
So one more key concept for us – "planning". When it is better
In total to be engaged in transformations, to achieve the maximum effect?
On the above-stated schedule it is shown, how will be restored the world
Economy and stock market. Now we endure the period of one of
The largest economic recessions in a world history – differently, that,
That is called as "economic depression».
But there are also good news: we know that it will follow, and it
Allows to plan now already developments of our business in the subsequent
Months and years.
On what basis we can predict the future? The matter is that
Each time when the world stock market (i.e. cumulative falls
Losses make more than 50 %, and it was observed in the history of all four
Time), restoration occurs under the same scheme: W-shapedly, as
Also it is shown on the schedule. An exit from less serious crises usually
It is carried out on L-shaped or V-shaped "trajectory".
As you can see, the schedule already now allows us to understand, when will begin
The period of long growth – at this time we бизнесы will begin all
To develop with great strides.
For the business similar to ours – that is such which is connected with
Certain vision – time of working out of the future strategy is simple
Invaluably. For us it means a conclusion to the market of a new ruler of products and
Forming of "deep-water" strategy at the bottom level of letter W, in
Expectation of the period of abundance and blossoming.
The expert: to China in 2012г. Own financial crisis threatens
In China in 2012г. The own financial crisis which has been not introduced from the outside is possible. Such opinion was stated on air of RBC-TV program "Dialogue with Sergey Aleksashenko" the director of the center of macroeconomic researches of the Savings Bank by Xenia Judaeva.
"Radical difference of a present situation from a situation 2008г. Is a state of affairs in China. There, certainly, certain problems have collected, and they to a certain extent grow out of that they haven't bad passed 2008-2009гг. Two years ago about financial crisis in China speeches didn't go. And now say that in China the own financial crisis which has been not introduced from the outside" is possible more and more, - the expert marks.
However, according to the leader of the program, the director for macroeconomic researches of the Higher school of economy of Sergey Aleksashenko, serious problems at Chinese financial systems shouldn't be. "It all state, despite presence of foreign banks at a role миноритариев, all banks are under control to the state. It is ready to allocate with it any money, the state establishes credit plans. It is clear that a problem of bad debts anyhow on itself takes the state", - the leader has told.
Thus he has added that "is ready to believe that in China rates of increase will be slowed down, volumes of investments will be reduced, demand for a steel" will decrease, but he isn't ready to believe in financial crisis in the country because the state will help the banks.
K.Judaeva in this connection has noticed that, "fortunately, China - not Belarus". "Therefore we can easily assume that the Chinese central authorities can incur debts bank and debts of provinces. And, most likely, all system will appear enough steady", - she has told, having added that nevertheless the crisis phenomena in a number of sectors of the Chinese economy it is available.
"There are crisis phenomena in девелопменте, there are debts of provinces, it can make negative impact on the Chinese investments into an infrastructure that will lead to some reduction in demand for a steel and other goods", - has explained K.Judaeva. As she said, it can affect and the Russian economy, "the channel of distribution of crisis to Russia obviously is present".
Speaking about bank system of Russia, K.Judaeva has declared that 2012г. Will be for the Russian bank system year of serious tests
"Now at us debts, but inflation low have collected" bad ", and debts don't depreciate. Therefore for bank system 2012г. Will be year of serious tests because serious inflation it is not expected almost up to the end 2012г. Rates of economic growth precisely strongly won't grow. Superfluous liquidity too has no place to undertake", - it has explained.
Concerning problems of banks on attraction of the capital, K.Judaeva has reminded that in 2008г. "For the first time in a Post-Soviet history in the Russian Federation there were positive interest rates under deposits, and the population is accurate on them has reacted", putting up the money in banks.
"Now a situation similar, only with ready smaller margin. Percentage already rates grow, they pass in positive area. On the other hand, inflation low, and in parallel to lift up rates under credits the same rates that rates under deposits grow, it will be impossible, because rates of crediting" will fall, - has added the expert.
In its opinion, next year also it will not turn out to play on a rouble exchange rate. "Now still it seems to some that the rouble will be devaluated and it will be possible to play on the rate of exchange, as in 2008г. But it seems to me that now a situation another, the rouble won't continue to depreciate also. Attempts play on the rate of exchange can to come to an end badly. Sharp falling is possible, only if in Europe there will be something catastrophic. The course, of course, can slowly depreciate, but play it at the current policy of the Central Bank it will be difficult", - has explained K.Judaeva.
Finishing a theme, the leader of the program, the director for macroeconomic researches of the Higher school of economy of S.Aleksashenko has assumed that in 2012г. Banks will face huge problems while they will need to repay the credit before the Central bank of the Russian Federation, "and someone from them can not endure it".
"Radical difference of a present situation from a situation 2008г. Is a state of affairs in China. There, certainly, certain problems have collected, and they to a certain extent grow out of that they haven't bad passed 2008-2009гг. Two years ago about financial crisis in China speeches didn't go. And now say that in China the own financial crisis which has been not introduced from the outside" is possible more and more, - the expert marks.
However, according to the leader of the program, the director for macroeconomic researches of the Higher school of economy of Sergey Aleksashenko, serious problems at Chinese financial systems shouldn't be. "It all state, despite presence of foreign banks at a role миноритариев, all banks are under control to the state. It is ready to allocate with it any money, the state establishes credit plans. It is clear that a problem of bad debts anyhow on itself takes the state", - the leader has told.
Thus he has added that "is ready to believe that in China rates of increase will be slowed down, volumes of investments will be reduced, demand for a steel" will decrease, but he isn't ready to believe in financial crisis in the country because the state will help the banks.
K.Judaeva in this connection has noticed that, "fortunately, China - not Belarus". "Therefore we can easily assume that the Chinese central authorities can incur debts bank and debts of provinces. And, most likely, all system will appear enough steady", - she has told, having added that nevertheless the crisis phenomena in a number of sectors of the Chinese economy it is available.
"There are crisis phenomena in девелопменте, there are debts of provinces, it can make negative impact on the Chinese investments into an infrastructure that will lead to some reduction in demand for a steel and other goods", - has explained K.Judaeva. As she said, it can affect and the Russian economy, "the channel of distribution of crisis to Russia obviously is present".
Speaking about bank system of Russia, K.Judaeva has declared that 2012г. Will be for the Russian bank system year of serious tests
"Now at us debts, but inflation low have collected" bad ", and debts don't depreciate. Therefore for bank system 2012г. Will be year of serious tests because serious inflation it is not expected almost up to the end 2012г. Rates of economic growth precisely strongly won't grow. Superfluous liquidity too has no place to undertake", - it has explained.
Concerning problems of banks on attraction of the capital, K.Judaeva has reminded that in 2008г. "For the first time in a Post-Soviet history in the Russian Federation there were positive interest rates under deposits, and the population is accurate on them has reacted", putting up the money in banks.
"Now a situation similar, only with ready smaller margin. Percentage already rates grow, they pass in positive area. On the other hand, inflation low, and in parallel to lift up rates under credits the same rates that rates under deposits grow, it will be impossible, because rates of crediting" will fall, - has added the expert.
In its opinion, next year also it will not turn out to play on a rouble exchange rate. "Now still it seems to some that the rouble will be devaluated and it will be possible to play on the rate of exchange, as in 2008г. But it seems to me that now a situation another, the rouble won't continue to depreciate also. Attempts play on the rate of exchange can to come to an end badly. Sharp falling is possible, only if in Europe there will be something catastrophic. The course, of course, can slowly depreciate, but play it at the current policy of the Central Bank it will be difficult", - has explained K.Judaeva.
Finishing a theme, the leader of the program, the director for macroeconomic researches of the Higher school of economy of S.Aleksashenko has assumed that in 2012г. Banks will face huge problems while they will need to repay the credit before the Central bank of the Russian Federation, "and someone from them can not endure it".
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