While the ruble was falling rapidly - a week and a half value of the currency basket has risen by almost 2 now.
60 kopecks. Officials and representatives of the monetary authorities to reassure the Russians, saying that the depreciation of the time, it is associated with the crisis in Europe and the seasonal factors and, in general, devaluation of national currency is extremely beneficial to any state.
Everything under control?
Thus, according to Sergei Ignatiev, the head of the Russian Central Bank, is currently "in Europe intensified crisis," and "European politicians have so far failed to provide the market and the general public a coherent program of action to overcome these difficulties." At the same time the Central Bank last week active in supporting the ruble exchange rate by buying domestic currency in the international market. As a result, by Tuesday, June 5, the Russian ruble finally started to slowly go up - the truth, before it had time to sink a three-year low of 37.57 rubles.
-
Now intensified CBR does have good support for the domestic currency
quotations, - says Anna Bodrov, the analyst "Investkafe." -
The Russian regulator, as shown, very slow, but quickly goes: last week
the volume of intervention in the domestic market was small, but in the
beginning of a new five-day balance of power has changed, and Monday,
June 4, the ruble could return to the mark 33.5 rubles. the dollar.
From
the fact that "all is quiet in the market," agrees and Minister of
Economy of Russia Anton Siluanov, according to which "everything that
happens fits into those frameworks of monetary policy, which established
the Central Bank for the current year."
-
The ruble, even after a substantial reduction in the parameters of the
corridor set by the central bank, so to speak of volatility, or risk
worsening the situation correctly - said the Minister.
-
At the Central Bank does have the resources to keep the exchange rate
in the right corridor to it - confirms Bodrov - and the reason for the
"not fast" response may lie in the fact that the regulator has decided
to observe the behavior of the ruble in a stressful situation.
That is, the central bank last week and a half is actually conducted a stress test for the national currency, analysts agree. In
the near future monitarnye government really be able to keep the
situation under control, but this does not mean that the ruble will
continue to grow, and the national economy - noticeably improved.
All the more so manipulated the Russian Central Bank exchange rates will not last long.
-
We must understand that these statements by politicians and bureaucrats
at various levels are often academic in nature, and only from a
theoretical point of view, as described in the textbooks have a place in
life, - says analyst "TRADE PORTAL" Alexey Rybakov. -
In fact, foreign exchange and stock markets in the short term has long
been divorced from the real economy, and trends in those markets create
large speculators, rather than macro-economic processes.
- In addition, the Central Bank plans to continue - after release in the national currency float freely, - adds Bodrov. - It's hard not to mention the fact that due to the falling price of oil in the budget does not receive funds. And so the weak ruble immediately benefit from the economy and government.Poll worries Sea, "two"
Against
the rosy forecasts of the current leadership of the Ministry of Finance
expressed and former head of the Ministry Alexei Kudrin.
-
We are facing a new round of global crisis - he said, speaking at a
public meeting of the Committee of Civil Initiatives in the RIA
"Novosti".
This
provoked a revolution is really the problem in the euro area and in
particular in Greece, agreed with former colleagues, Mr. Kudrin,
however, that similar problems may arise in Russia - and in the very
near future - "literally possible and very likely," said Ex-minister.
-
In my opinion, the opinion of Mr. Kudrin is closer to reality than the
statements of representatives of government and central bank - said
Rybakov.
- The world is going through a few months, the second - active - a wave of financial crisis. That's
why now, when the decline has affected the scope of Russia's interests -
ie the oil price, quotes the ruble went down so fast.
Considers natural weakening of the ruble and A. Bodrov. "An
additional factor that provoked the weakening of the ruble was the
folding programs carry trade currencies with the use of Russian as a
second instrument, while the first instrument - the U.S. dollar - has
remained unchanged," - adds Rybakov.
According
to forecasts Bodrov, "the ruble in the next few days will stabilize in
the hallway 31,9-33,3 rubles. The dollar, which will stay a week or two,
and then a lot will depend on the external background."
-
After a pause, by mid-summer, you can expect a new wave of weakening of
the ruble, because of the obvious factors of pressure will add one more
- rising inflation in Russia, - said the analyst.
By the way, the acceleration of inflation in Russia, there is now.
According to Rosstat, in April, consumer prices increased on average by 0.3% in May - already at 0.5%. And
closer to the fall of this figure will only increase - due to the
rising costs of products, increased utility tariffs (in July and then
again in September) and other seasonal factors. In
addition, spur inflation and the planned budget spending, which,
although laid down for the entire year, has traditionally been unevenly
distributed and mostly occur in autumn.Another view, "The present crisis will begin after the New Year. Dollar will cost 35-40 rubles"
At
the same time, the experts expect the fall for a number of important
events throughout the world economy, which largely determine the fate of
the Russian currency.
- The behavior of the ruble is now more dependent on global economic situation. Clarifying the issue with Greece in mid-June can deploy the negative investor sentiment. But
the possible adoption of new programs to stimulate the economies of the
U.S., Europe and China, by contrast, will be the reason for the growth
of commodity markets and capital markets - said Bohdan Zykov, expert
"BCS Express." - In any case, no matter what happens on the world stages, strong fluctuations in the ruble provided at least until the autumn.
In
November, a hand may be a possible ruble devaluation of the dollar
after the presidential elections in the United States as a strong
national currency - not in America's interest, especially now. But
the negative trend - the depreciation of the ruble - will continue in
case of aggravation of the crisis in Europe, involving the uncontrolled
release of Greece from the European Union.
Therefore, the first tangible effects of the fall of the ruble, Russians will be felt in September and November this year. If
the weakness of the ruble will remain closer to the fall of the banks
will start to change their monetary and credit conditions in the
direction of tightening, says Bodrov. Also,
expect "a rise in price of imported goods, and Russian products with a
high proportion of imported raw materials and components," said Rybakov.
So
a major purchase - car, household appliances, apartment or room -
better do it now rather than defer to the "then" by the end of the
holiday season you can depreciate the ruble savings, while interest
rates on bank loans will grow in any case - even with the strengthening
of the ruble , they will push inflation growth.