Whether to wait for rouble devaluation in 2012?

The Russian currency in 2012 inevitable devaluation waits. Thus, unlike 2008-2009, rouble depreciation will be not smooth, but single – at once on 10-20 %. To such unfavourable conclusions experts of the Higher school of economy have come in the research.

If such scenario is realized, the Russian next year at «a good deal» for dollar should give about 31 roubles, for euro – 44. At "not so good" – 33,6 roubles for dollar and 47,8 roubles for euro. The official rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation since July, 22nd, makes 27,908 roubles for dollar, 39,8415 roubles for euro.
In Ministry of economic development and trade consider, however, that strong easing of rouble in 2012 won't be, but risks are in 2013-2014

It would seem, the Russian currency had more recently hard time. Within seven months - since July 2008 till February, 2009 – the dollar has grown in relation to rouble on 60 %, and euro on 40 %. It is necessary to notice that if not efforts of Bank of Russia to which by means of reserves managed to limit falling by this level, Russians could come up against a situation of 1998: then during the seven-mouth period the rouble has given practically in 4 times in relation to dollar.

The Central Bank was possible to stabilize a situation, and already since spring of 2009 the rouble has begun the gradual strengthening. Till today since that moment the Russian currency has added 24 % in relation to dollar and 16 % to euro.

And here again have suddenly started talking about devaluation …
Devaluation as a presentiment

«Participants of the currency market have expectations that the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments will decrease, risks of easing of rouble in near prospect therefore are possible. It not my opinion, is expectations of participants of the market», - the head of Bank of Russia Sergey Ignatyev has declared last week.

It is necessary to notice that these expectations are supported by the macroeconomic data. Rates of increase of import considerably exceed growth of volumes of export. Experts ВШЭ notice that if import from next year will grow pre-crisis rates – approximately 30 % year by a year the balance of the account of current operations already in the second quarter 2012 will decrease to level less than 1 % of gross national product then the Bank of Russia can go on the planned/operated/limited devaluation of rouble.
According to Dmitry Dorofeyev, the chief of analytical department «Ursa the Capital», under condition of absence of external shocks the next five years is extremely improbable that the import volume will exceed volume of export and balance of trading balance becomes negative.

In turn, even if the balance will leave in a negative zone, there is no accident, Andrey Klepach considers замглавы Ministry of economic development and trade. «Many countries faced it, - he hasn'ted. - stability of national currency was thus kept at the expense of capital inflow». However, as Sergey Pukhov from the Center of development ВШЭ confirms, to compensate inflow of the capital easing of the current account it is impossible. And the reasons of observed outflow are covered in absence of the clear political program. Decrease in the prices for oil will turn back new currency crisis.
Devaluation as a reality

Dmitry Dorofeyev, analyst «Ursa the Capital»:
«The situation for the Russian rouble still remains favorable. Proceeding from a curve of future contracts existing now on oil, rouble should feel well long time. Another matter that a world conjuncture of the prices for oil is enough изменчива therefore it directly influences rouble exchange rate formation. However at forecasts of a rise in prices existing now for oil, rouble it is in many respects insured from strong waves of devaluations rather бивалютной baskets. Though movements concerning dollar and euro can be strong enough.

Even if to assume probability of easing of rouble in 2012 considerable (more than 10 %) devaluations of our currency rather бивалютной baskets next year I estimate probability as low. Dynamics of a rouble exchange rate will repeat cycles of change of the prices for the raw goods, therefore dynamics of a course change of rouble will be in many respects adhered to cycles of acceleration/delay of world economy. As a whole I don't wait for devaluation of rouble. The rouble is in lateral motion and considerable the procorf on it isn't expected yet ».
Maxim Lobada, expert БКС the Express train:
«Negative balance of balance to which we come nearer – already very much for a long time for anybody not a secret. Export of energy carriers from the Russian Federation keeps at more or less invariable level. Simultaneously there is an import growth that reduces proficiency of trading balance. If the prices for oil give, the current account becomes negative much earlier. To compensate a difference at the expense of inflow of investments it will not be possible without cardinal change of an investment climate in the country. The market yet doesn't expect oil falling, but in case of transition of debt problems in Europe or in the USA in a sharp or critical phase of the quotation will fall very quickly. Andrey Klepach sees a solution of a problem of balancing of negative balance just at the expense of capital inflow, but starting with history of the country of last several years, I very skeptically look at cardinal change with an investment climate and I believe that the optimistical variant can and not justify. Therefore devaluation is quite real».
Vladimir Harchenko, analyst of "IFD Kapital":
«Rouble easing, most likely, will occur this year – against outflow of the capital, high inflation and delay of a rise in prices for oil. Single devaluation of a rouble exchange rate in 2012 is improbable, though prevalence of a negative tendency in the currency market within next year quite probably.

The wide range of admissible course changes of rouble to бивалютной to a basket (more than 15 % between the top and bottom borders of a technical corridor), and also rather flexible mechanism of currency interventions of the Central Bank gives the chance to avoid single devaluation of rouble even at sharp reduction of balance of the account of current operations. Only at essential or long falling of the prices for oil, and also toughening of a protectionist policy of the Central Bank in reply to splash in speculative pressure upon rouble its sharp devaluation as it was in the end of 2008 – the beginning of 2009 »is possible.