BRUSSELS, July 2 - RIA Novosti, Maria Knyazeva. Oil
prices may rise above 100 dollars per barrel of Brent crude during the
third quarter, including the EU's arms embargo against the import of
Iranian oil and increasing demand, according to analysts polled by RIA
Novosti.
All economic and business news on the agency's website Prime >>
The European Council on Foreign Relations last week upheld the decision of 23 January this year to impose an embargo on Iranian oil imports to the EU from 1 July 2012. In late February, the EC spokesman said Marlene Holzner RIA Novosti that the oil reserves in the EU enough to dispense with supplies from Iran for four and a half years, so the disruption of "black gold" in the EU is not expected. Iran in 2011 was the fourth oil supplier to the EU market with a share of about 6% of the total imports of this product.
World oil prices decline on Monday, more than 1% in the correction after the record for the last three years of growth on Friday. The cost of the August futures for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell Monday by 1.5 dollars or 1.53% - to 96.3 dollars per barrel. On Friday, oil prices went up by 7% against the decision on short-term measures to support the eurozone financial markets, which could have a positive impact on the demand for "black gold".
EU leaders agreed last Friday that EFFS and MFS will be able to buy government bonds on the primary market of any of the eurozone countries, performing its economic plan. In discussing this issue, not on the agenda of the summit, insisted Spain and Italy. Now markets are waiting for purchases of sovereign bonds in these countries is, however, when and in what quantities can pass surgery is not yet known.
Italy and Spain, members of the five largest economies in the euro area, currently remains the center of attention of financial markets. Spain has requested assistance from outside the euro zone to rescue their banking system, investors fear that aid did not need the whole country. Italy has so far
That is the situation with the Iranian oil in Italy until the experts are concerned most seriously, however, for the most part they do not expect catastrophic consequences. Italy has the largest public debt in the euro area (up to 2011 - 1.897 trillion euros), earlier analysts had feared that European funds may not be enough to save the country from default.
Schtimul to growth
Analysts say that the pressure on the price of oil has rather weak demand at a high sentence. The embargo on Iranian oil may slightly improve the situation and to stimulate growth in the value of "black gold".
"Recent news suggests that China, India, Japan cut imports from Iran, Europe imposed the embargo. In the third and fourth quarters is a seasonal increase in demand for oil. All this in the compartment should help increase oil prices," - said the Raiffeisen Research analyst Hannes Loaker.
"We will see some upward pressure on prices. I do not think that they will return to the mark of $ 125 per barrel (brand Brent - Ed.). However, about a 100 dollar value of" black gold "may rise to fall, pressured by several factors , "- says Helge Petersen, an analyst at Nordea.
"The price could exceed $ 100 per barrel in July and August. However, I do not think she went above 110 dollars" - predicts Loaker.
However, among the factors that influence the price of oil is present and the state of the eurozone economy as a whole. While the situation in this region is located between the positive promises of short-term measures to support it and fear of the emergence of preddefoltnogo state in Greece, Spain and Italy"Some solutions summit of EU leaders last week turned out to be very positive for the markets. Nevertheless, I think the markets will understand that many questions still left open, and it would not be nice insight for them. It is expected that the ECB this week will reduce the base rate, which will give additional support to the euro-zone economy in the short term. also may be offered new long auction on lending of banks in the region. on the other hand, we can see the very difficult negotiations with the Greek "troika" of the creditors of the country's economic program. in our opinion, Spain and Italy are on the brink of a request help for their economies as a whole, not only for banking systems. I think if all the negative news materialize, nothing good for the market price, they will not do, "- says the chief economist at Citigroup eurozone Jurgen Mishelz .
Without the effects of
Slight rise in oil prices, which can support an embargo on exports of raw materials from Iran and a relatively stable situation in the eurozone, do not hurt to hit the economies of EU countries, even for the weakest, according to analysts and officials. Even despite the fact that the bulk of imports of Iranian oil, about 68%, falls on one of the most unstable of the EU countries - Greece, Italy and Spain.
State of Union was replaced by the end of April 2012 approximately 70% of oil comes from Iran, the products of other countries, RIA Novosti said the official representative of the European Commission last week.
"If oil prices rise to 105-110 dollars per barrel, in our opinion, the serious consequences of the EU economy, or it will not bring peace. Treatment of Italy for financial aid, or something like that, nor do we expect from the increase in oil prices to $ 110" - said Loaker.
Researcher, Institute of International Affairs (IAI) in Rome, an expert on energy policy, Nicola Sartori (Nicolo Sartori) believes that the embargo will not have a negative impact on the economy of Europe.
"In fact, the more likely that because of the current structural problems of the European economy, crude oil prices may continue to fall, despite the introduction of sanctions against Iran," - he told RIA Novosti.
According to Sartori, the European embargo on Iranian oil will contribute to the redistribution of global flows of crude Greece, Italy and Spain will live
In the EU countries since the end of January this year, it was time to replace Iranian oil feedstock from other countries. Based on data from the European Commission and the states themselves, they have coped with this task quite well.
Iran's oil consumption in Greece has practically disappeared in April of this year. Representatives of the largest companies in Greece for processing crude oil, Hellenic Petroleum and the state's leading private companies for processing oil and oil Motor Oil said they would not comment on the trade policies of their companies. However, unofficially the companies say they have taken care of uninterrupted supply of the local market, in particular by increasing purchases from other traditional suppliers, primarily in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Libya.
Prices for crude oil and processed products in the domestic market has stabilized in recent years. In January, the announcement of the oil embargo against the sale price of gasoline with an octane number of 92 per month increased by about 5% - up to 1.705 euros per liter, as suppliers have raised prices in advance. Now, however, consumer prices in Greece have fallen along with oil prices and in some areas of the country were less than 1.60 euros per liter.
oil, which can not be considered a negative consequence.
In this case the loss of Iranian oil would inevitably hit the local refinery, as Iran was one of the few countries that continued to Greek guarantees procurement, despite the crisis, the risk of withdrawal from the eurozone and the refusal of several major insurance companies to insure Greek companies.
Foreign Minister of Spain Jose Manuel Garcia-Margalit in late June said that the embargo on Iranian oil imports to the EU will not affect the economy of his country. After the January decision on the embargo, the Spanish authorities with the assistance of the United States began an active search for alternative suppliers of oil, primarily in Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries. After Madrid, received assurances from Saudi Arabia that oil supplies from Arab countries that fully compensate for Iranian oil, crude oil imports from Iran since the end of February 2012 was discontinued.
According to some experts, and Italian newspapers, the situation of Iranian oil, can be a real blow for the country in which the proportion of "black gold" was 13% of the total amount of imported fuel.
According to the Italian Oil Union De Simone Pietro (Pietro De Simone), in Italy there are a number of refineries that can process almost the only type of crude oil - Iran. Therefore, these companies risk being closed.
For its part, General Director of Saras, engaged in oil refining, Skaffardi Dario (Dario Scaffardi) noted that an embargo on Iranian oil would lead to diversification of supply, which would entail a significant increase in cost of oil companies.
Nevertheless, the Italian Foreign Minister Giulio thirds immediately after the approval of sanctions against Tehran, said that the impact of an embargo on Iranian oil would be "insignificant" for Italy.
Senior economist at ING Carsten Brzheski told RIA Novosti last week that the market plenty of opportunities to replace Iranian oil, so the Italian arms
All economic and business news on the agency's website Prime >>
The European Council on Foreign Relations last week upheld the decision of 23 January this year to impose an embargo on Iranian oil imports to the EU from 1 July 2012. In late February, the EC spokesman said Marlene Holzner RIA Novosti that the oil reserves in the EU enough to dispense with supplies from Iran for four and a half years, so the disruption of "black gold" in the EU is not expected. Iran in 2011 was the fourth oil supplier to the EU market with a share of about 6% of the total imports of this product.
World oil prices decline on Monday, more than 1% in the correction after the record for the last three years of growth on Friday. The cost of the August futures for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell Monday by 1.5 dollars or 1.53% - to 96.3 dollars per barrel. On Friday, oil prices went up by 7% against the decision on short-term measures to support the eurozone financial markets, which could have a positive impact on the demand for "black gold".
EU leaders agreed last Friday that EFFS and MFS will be able to buy government bonds on the primary market of any of the eurozone countries, performing its economic plan. In discussing this issue, not on the agenda of the summit, insisted Spain and Italy. Now markets are waiting for purchases of sovereign bonds in these countries is, however, when and in what quantities can pass surgery is not yet known.
Italy and Spain, members of the five largest economies in the euro area, currently remains the center of attention of financial markets. Spain has requested assistance from outside the euro zone to rescue their banking system, investors fear that aid did not need the whole country. Italy has so far
That is the situation with the Iranian oil in Italy until the experts are concerned most seriously, however, for the most part they do not expect catastrophic consequences. Italy has the largest public debt in the euro area (up to 2011 - 1.897 trillion euros), earlier analysts had feared that European funds may not be enough to save the country from default.
Schtimul to growth
Analysts say that the pressure on the price of oil has rather weak demand at a high sentence. The embargo on Iranian oil may slightly improve the situation and to stimulate growth in the value of "black gold".
"Recent news suggests that China, India, Japan cut imports from Iran, Europe imposed the embargo. In the third and fourth quarters is a seasonal increase in demand for oil. All this in the compartment should help increase oil prices," - said the Raiffeisen Research analyst Hannes Loaker.
"We will see some upward pressure on prices. I do not think that they will return to the mark of $ 125 per barrel (brand Brent - Ed.). However, about a 100 dollar value of" black gold "may rise to fall, pressured by several factors , "- says Helge Petersen, an analyst at Nordea.
"The price could exceed $ 100 per barrel in July and August. However, I do not think she went above 110 dollars" - predicts Loaker.
However, among the factors that influence the price of oil is present and the state of the eurozone economy as a whole. While the situation in this region is located between the positive promises of short-term measures to support it and fear of the emergence of preddefoltnogo state in Greece, Spain and Italy"Some solutions summit of EU leaders last week turned out to be very positive for the markets. Nevertheless, I think the markets will understand that many questions still left open, and it would not be nice insight for them. It is expected that the ECB this week will reduce the base rate, which will give additional support to the euro-zone economy in the short term. also may be offered new long auction on lending of banks in the region. on the other hand, we can see the very difficult negotiations with the Greek "troika" of the creditors of the country's economic program. in our opinion, Spain and Italy are on the brink of a request help for their economies as a whole, not only for banking systems. I think if all the negative news materialize, nothing good for the market price, they will not do, "- says the chief economist at Citigroup eurozone Jurgen Mishelz .
Without the effects of
Slight rise in oil prices, which can support an embargo on exports of raw materials from Iran and a relatively stable situation in the eurozone, do not hurt to hit the economies of EU countries, even for the weakest, according to analysts and officials. Even despite the fact that the bulk of imports of Iranian oil, about 68%, falls on one of the most unstable of the EU countries - Greece, Italy and Spain.
State of Union was replaced by the end of April 2012 approximately 70% of oil comes from Iran, the products of other countries, RIA Novosti said the official representative of the European Commission last week.
"If oil prices rise to 105-110 dollars per barrel, in our opinion, the serious consequences of the EU economy, or it will not bring peace. Treatment of Italy for financial aid, or something like that, nor do we expect from the increase in oil prices to $ 110" - said Loaker.
Researcher, Institute of International Affairs (IAI) in Rome, an expert on energy policy, Nicola Sartori (Nicolo Sartori) believes that the embargo will not have a negative impact on the economy of Europe.
"In fact, the more likely that because of the current structural problems of the European economy, crude oil prices may continue to fall, despite the introduction of sanctions against Iran," - he told RIA Novosti.
According to Sartori, the European embargo on Iranian oil will contribute to the redistribution of global flows of crude Greece, Italy and Spain will live
In the EU countries since the end of January this year, it was time to replace Iranian oil feedstock from other countries. Based on data from the European Commission and the states themselves, they have coped with this task quite well.
Iran's oil consumption in Greece has practically disappeared in April of this year. Representatives of the largest companies in Greece for processing crude oil, Hellenic Petroleum and the state's leading private companies for processing oil and oil Motor Oil said they would not comment on the trade policies of their companies. However, unofficially the companies say they have taken care of uninterrupted supply of the local market, in particular by increasing purchases from other traditional suppliers, primarily in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Libya.
Prices for crude oil and processed products in the domestic market has stabilized in recent years. In January, the announcement of the oil embargo against the sale price of gasoline with an octane number of 92 per month increased by about 5% - up to 1.705 euros per liter, as suppliers have raised prices in advance. Now, however, consumer prices in Greece have fallen along with oil prices and in some areas of the country were less than 1.60 euros per liter.
oil, which can not be considered a negative consequence.
In this case the loss of Iranian oil would inevitably hit the local refinery, as Iran was one of the few countries that continued to Greek guarantees procurement, despite the crisis, the risk of withdrawal from the eurozone and the refusal of several major insurance companies to insure Greek companies.
Foreign Minister of Spain Jose Manuel Garcia-Margalit in late June said that the embargo on Iranian oil imports to the EU will not affect the economy of his country. After the January decision on the embargo, the Spanish authorities with the assistance of the United States began an active search for alternative suppliers of oil, primarily in Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries. After Madrid, received assurances from Saudi Arabia that oil supplies from Arab countries that fully compensate for Iranian oil, crude oil imports from Iran since the end of February 2012 was discontinued.
According to some experts, and Italian newspapers, the situation of Iranian oil, can be a real blow for the country in which the proportion of "black gold" was 13% of the total amount of imported fuel.
According to the Italian Oil Union De Simone Pietro (Pietro De Simone), in Italy there are a number of refineries that can process almost the only type of crude oil - Iran. Therefore, these companies risk being closed.
For its part, General Director of Saras, engaged in oil refining, Skaffardi Dario (Dario Scaffardi) noted that an embargo on Iranian oil would lead to diversification of supply, which would entail a significant increase in cost of oil companies.
Nevertheless, the Italian Foreign Minister Giulio thirds immediately after the approval of sanctions against Tehran, said that the impact of an embargo on Iranian oil would be "insignificant" for Italy.
Senior economist at ING Carsten Brzheski told RIA Novosti last week that the market plenty of opportunities to replace Iranian oil, so the Italian arms
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