In 2012, the domestic retail lending market could return to pre-crisis growth rates of 45-50%. These are the results of a study of rating agency "Expert RA". According to experts, in the 1st half of a portfolio of retail loans of Russian banks rose to 6.7 trillion. rubles to the end of this year will reach 7.8 trillion. rubles.
The dynamics of retail lending to individuals in the current year is 1.5-2 times higher than the results of the remaining segments of the credit market. On June 1, 2012 the share of retail loans in total loan portfolio of banks was 21% (from 19% as of January 1 this year).
Analysts point out that loan segment most affected by the crisis in 2008, faster than the others returned to pre-crisis dynamics in 50-60%. Agency experts believe that the sharp "drawdown" of retail portfolio in the case of a second "wave" of the crisis is unlikely.
First, the banks now have a wide range of refinancing of the Bank of Russia, which will support lending activity in retail with a deterioration of the situation with short-term liquidity. Second, the crisis 2008-2009, showed that the payment behavior of borrowers may remain relatively high due to state programs help.
"Drivers of market growth of retail lending in 2012 will be performing cash loans and credit cards - said Stanislav Volkov, head of credit rating institutions" Expert RA ". - It is also significant potential is concentrated in the mortgage segment, taking into account the rapid growth of housing in the region "- said the agency.
The dynamics of retail lending to individuals in the current year is 1.5-2 times higher than the results of the remaining segments of the credit market. On June 1, 2012 the share of retail loans in total loan portfolio of banks was 21% (from 19% as of January 1 this year).
Analysts point out that loan segment most affected by the crisis in 2008, faster than the others returned to pre-crisis dynamics in 50-60%. Agency experts believe that the sharp "drawdown" of retail portfolio in the case of a second "wave" of the crisis is unlikely.
First, the banks now have a wide range of refinancing of the Bank of Russia, which will support lending activity in retail with a deterioration of the situation with short-term liquidity. Second, the crisis 2008-2009, showed that the payment behavior of borrowers may remain relatively high due to state programs help.
"Drivers of market growth of retail lending in 2012 will be performing cash loans and credit cards - said Stanislav Volkov, head of credit rating institutions" Expert RA ". - It is also significant potential is concentrated in the mortgage segment, taking into account the rapid growth of housing in the region "- said the agency.
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