Moscow (Рейтер) - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has passed from currency purchases to sales against falling of rouble which he as a whole explains increase in import with postcrisis restoration of demand, and partially - gamble, especially last days, the head of the Central Bank Sergey Ignatyev has told.
He also has promised gradual easing of the basic inflationary factors - growth of the monetary offer and the prices for the foodstuffs owing to a drought, and at discussion of a percentage policy has lowered the promise traditional for last months not to change the rate.
"Last months I would carry to number of the possible reasons of some easing of rouble, first of all, a tendency of decrease in proficiency of the current account of the balance of payments as a result of fast growth of import. An important role, especially last days, purely speculative factors" have played also, - Ignatyev in the State Duma has told.
For a week by September, 22nd the basket has risen in price for rouble, or 3 percent.
"Currency interventions of Bank of Russia last months were very insignificant. For example, in July we have bought only $0,5 billion, in August - $1,3 billion. In September we already sold foreign currency, and from the beginning of month on September, 22nd we have sold $0,6 billion".
Ignatyev has refrained from estimations of a current rate of rouble and has confirmed adherence to the transition plan to free swimming and inflationary таргетированию in the future.
INFLATION OVERTAKES THE RATE
The head of the Central Bank hasn'ted a fast gain of the monetary offer - on third for a year by September, 1st.
"It is much less, than in some precritical years. But much more, than we predicted in the end of the last year. Thus, certain risks of acceleration of inflation are formed and from the monetary offer", - Ignatyev has told.
"Fast growth of monetary weight is connected with two circumstances: first, it is scale purchases by Bank of Russia of foreign currency in the internal currency market in the first months of year. Secondly, it is heavy expenses of means of Reserve fund on financing of deficiency of the federal budget in January-April, 2010", - Ignatyev has told.
Since the summer the Ministry of Finance in search of means of financing of deficiency was switched the internal debt market that Ignatyev "in every possible way supports".
"Thus, the next months we expect delay of growth of monetary weight", - the head of the Central Bank has told.
Other inflationary factor - a poor harvest - also will come to naught in due course, he has promised.
"Inflation growth is connected, first of all, with a drought and a poor harvest... It is represented that the extremely adverse weather conditions, developed in the summer of current year, can render though also appreciable, but the influence limited in time for inflation. To autumn of the next year this influence can be completely settled", - Ignatyev has told and has promised inflation for all 2010 around 8 percent, on the top lath of the forecast of the government of 7-8 percent and at the former forecast of 6-7 percent.
If the new forecast of the Central Bank comes true, the rate of refinancing of the Central Bank will appear less inflations. Since June, 1st, 2010 it is on a historical minimum of 7,75 percent, and the Central Bank promised not to change it till now "the next months". Last such statement has sounded on September, 2nd, however on Friday Ignatyev, speaking about rates, has refrained from the become formulation already traditional for the Central Bank about their invariance "the next months" and from the forecast as a whole.
The Central Bank board of directors about rates is planned for September, 28th.
IMPORT EATS PROFICIENCY
Expensive oil supports proficiency of the account of current operations of the balance of payments of Russia at high level - $58 billion for 8 months that more than twice above, than year before. But the situation changes.
"If in the first quarter monthly average value of balance of current operations exceeded $11 billion last three months - June, July, August - its monthly average value makes about $2,8 billion", - Ignatyev has told, naming a principal cause fast growth of import.
For 8 months import has grown for 30 percent that Ignatyev has explained renewal of economic growth, increase in real incomes of the population and strengthening of rouble till May of current year.
Capital outflow with which Russia has passed through world crisis from the moment of the Georgian war of August, 2008 and visit of Putin "doctor" to a Mechel, proceeds, but smaller rates. According to Ignatyev, for 8 months pure outflow of the private capital has made $12 billion, but all it has had for January.
ARE STABLY DELAYED
Ignatyev hasn'ted growth of credits of banks to the companies and the population for 7 percent from March till September after reduction for 1 percent in January-February.
"Level of the delayed debts on bank system was stabilized, but while the steady tendency to its decrease isn't present", - he has told.
Debtors on беззалоговым to credits, which Central Banks will refuse by the end of the year, there are 7 banks with the general debt of 46 billion the roubles which part is re-structured and translated in the provided. 2,6 billion roubles more debts "hangs" on the bank deprived of the license in February, 2009, Ignatyev has told.
On беззалоговых Central Bank credits has earned 150 billion roubles.
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