The first "have sounded the alarm" on the basis of research of GU ВШЭ in "the Independent newspaper". According to the forecast which is published in the bulletin of the Center of development of the Higher school of economy (ВШЭ), December payments on external debts and import growth will lead to a dollar rise in price to rouble approximately on 20 %. Interrogated by magazine "Personal money" experts so it is dramatic to the forecast haven't concerned, and have explained the reasons of hearings about devaluation.
As writes "НГ", volume payments by the Russian authorities, banks and the companies to non-residents by the end of the year should become the reason of possible devaluation. Besides, experts of the edition expect reduction of balance of current operations that actually means deficiency in the country of foreign currency which arises because of excess of import over export and capital outflow.
It is clear that this year import excess rather possibly. As the reason for that will serve both droughty summer-2010, and growth of import of pharmaceutical production (in connection with introduction of state price control from the list of the vital and necessary medicines), and a great demand of Russians on import clothes, footwear, home appliances and cars.
However all listed reasons earlier by no means it is notable on rouble cost didn't affect. And in the meantime, the director of department of financial and economic examination of company "2trade.ru" Dmitry Pushkarev has declared "НГ": "Citizens can try to keep the savings, having bought for roubles dollars and euro. We recommend to the population to reduce a rouble share in a basket of three currencies and to increase the savings in dollars and euro regarding capital savings, having kept thus necessary and sufficient rouble base for service of consumer current needs. During the third quarter we reduce a share of rouble from current 30 % to target 10 % in a currency basket till the end of 2010", - Pushkarev advises.
Meanwhile, the experts interrogated by "Personal money", serious threat of devaluation don't see and in the majority adhere a rouble exchange rate to oil cost. And also advise, still, to distribute accumulation in a basket of currencies. However, not all unequivocally hold the opinion, which currencies.
So, analyst ИК "TSERIH Kepital Management" Andrey Vernikov considers that the scenario 20 %-s' devaluations, is improbable. "At the prices for oil not below $70 for barrel a multiple currency basket of the Central Bank (55 % in dollars, 45 % in euro) will cost by the end of the year not above 35 roubles. Chances that the prices for oil won't fail, have become stronger after the government of China has declared this month that will increase investments into commodity resources. Debt payments in December really big, but catastrophic in it aren't present anything. The debt part will be paid only, and other part will be restructured (it easy to make at the present prices for oil). The high prices for oil create capital inflow on trading balance - the bases for special anxiety I yet don't see", - he marks.
"It seems to us expedient to put up money in rouble deposits, and also eurodeposits. In US dollars we don't advise an investment because of uncertainty connected with strengthening of positions of democrats after November congressional elections of the USA. The economic policy can essentially exchange, and current languid restoration will stop, the hyperinflation scenario isn't excluded also. Besides economic problems of Europe" on a kind ", and the scale of problems in economy of the USA is unknown till now. In particular, the exact figure on" bad debts "isn't known and it creates obstacles for an investment in dollar. Our choice: 50 % of investments in rouble and 50 % in dollar", - are concluded by A.Vernikov.
The senior financial adviser of legal company "Tax specialist" Tamara Sudareva draws even more interesting conclusion: "It would be desirable to tell about such financial term which is used 50 years in transactions on the stock exchange - noise trade at first. These are the transactions made not by experts-analysts, and the inhabitants operating under the information (noise) received from mass-media. And if to consider that brokers receive the income from any fluctuations at any calm in the market there is a sense similar" a wave "to create. For some reason in the described analysis there are no references to the world prices to oil, namely it influences an export component of trading balance of Russia", - marks T.Sudareva.
"For last year by data oil-price.net this price has grown almost in 1,5 times - with 58 to 87 dollars for barrel. And inflow of dollars to the Russian economy only has increased. I do not think that changes of structure trading and uncommercial (under the international credits, etc.) balance will by all means lead to rouble devaluation - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation keeps a year a rouble exchange rate in the planned frameworks though and in this period of fluctuation too were available", - the adviser of "Tax specialist" marks.
"Therefore precisely it is not necessary, being guided by one publication, to rush to exchange currency. To provide safety of the savings, they precisely shouldn't be held in any one currency, Englishmen in an ancient saying advised" not to hold all eggs in one basket ". From currency fluctuations it is considered the steadiest an investment proportional to" a rouble basket "Central Bank - 50 % in US dollars, 50 % - in euro", - advises T.Sudareva.
The adviser of department Due Diligence NKG "2К Audit - Business consultations" / Morison International Andrey Chernyavsky marks: "In Russia inflation was accelerated, it is clear that in the frameworks defined by the government in 7,5 % it won't keep within, increases any more import, besides, on the end of the year serious payments on an external debt have, therefore the bases for rouble exchange rate decrease are".
However adds: "But despite these negative tendencies of balance of foreign trade doesn't endure sharply deterioration, outflow of the capital following the results of 2010 from the country will be, but not in very serious scales, a conjuncture of foreign markets and the price for oil remain stable. By the end of the year in 20 % it is not expected serious devaluation of rouble, but rouble подеешевеет. As much as possible the rouble can fall in price on 10 % by the end of the year".
Egor Susin, the head of analytical department of the companies working under brand АЛЬПАРИ is solidary with a position of a binding of rouble to oil cost." Devaluation risks for rouble are present, but while I wouldn't begin to dramatize strongly a situation. The risk goes from the extremely ambiguous situation in the market of oil more likely, the prices were fixed in narrow enough range and more actively react to negative factors, ignoring periodically making the way positive. Negative influence on rouble will be rendered also by a drought, acceleration of inflation and growth of import of agricultural production will introduce certain corrective amendments in prospects of the Russian currency. These are normal processes - the rouble really will be inclined to decrease by the end of the year, but to name it operated devaluation it is not necessary, the rouble market gradually becomes more flexible and reflects a real situation, both in internal economy, and in the external economic relations more. That fact that the Russian companies should extinguish enough great volume of external loans a little about what speaks, since the most part of loans рефинансируется. While oil is kept In a range $70 - $80 for barrel, серьeзных risks of sharp devaluation for rouble aren't present. Inflation growth can make external credit resources slightly more expensively, creditors will ask above the rate but while world liquidity is at enough high levels, it is possible not to panic concerning impossibility of refinancing of credits. Levels 32-33 roubles for dollar will be a reference point by the end of the year, to speak about any special operated devaluation I didn't become, there are objective financial streams - they in a present situation have a priority ", - explains E.Susin.
Denis Barabanov, the chief of analytical department IK "the Capital" summarizes Grandis: "I wouldn't began to name possible some easing of rouble by devaluation. It is normal process when currency that becomes cheaper rises in price as the Central Bank became in this question to more flexible. If we look at the crisis period the rouble has quickly enough restored the positions. The specified factors (payment of debts, import growth, local splash in inflation) will really promote rouble exchange rate decrease, however in the long-term period far not the fact that the real rouble exchange rate will be low. The situation will depend in many respects on rates of increase of economy and its appeal in the opinion of world investors. Plus from the prices for oil".
"As to accumulation, first, the diversification question usually faces well-founded citizens whom is what to diversify. If to speak about the small sums, contributions to bank it is the most reasonable - to enclose them in dollars and euro in the ratio 50 on 50. And in roubles the population gets wages", - advises D.Barabanov.
In conclusion of our review of probability of approach of rouble devaluation, it would be desirable to remind and of a regulator position on this point in question. From the beginning of introduction by the Central Bank of smooth devaluation, border бивалютной baskets were supported by Bank of Russia by interventions. Repeatedly the first vice-president of the Central Bank Alexey Uljukaev explained that the financial system of Russia is insufficiently developed and doesn't offer necessary tools of hedging of currency risks, therefore the Central Bank should be smoothed superfluous волатильность.
Thus, as he said, the Central Bank carries out currency intervention, both on borders, and in the floating corridor which is in limits of the fixed wide corridor of cost бивалютной baskets. The Central Bank operates in two circumstances. The first is connected with trading balance of the Russian Federation - very high positive balance of trading balance presses on rouble towards strengthening, therefore the part of currency of the Central Bank gets without dependence from where there is a course - it comes nearer to the bottom border of a corridor or doesn't come nearer.
Other part of interventions, according to A.Uljukaeva, is connected with capital inflow. In this case the Central Bank gets currency near to the bottom border of a currency corridor. Having made certain volume of purchases, the Central Bank shifts the bottom and top borders of a floating corridor downwards (at purchase of $700 million Central Bank shifts a corridor for 5 copecks downwards, at $700 million sale - for 5 copecks upwards).
And while any reasons, and also official statements, however, as well as hearings, from the Central Bank hasn't followed, the system will operate still.
No comments:
Post a Comment