On Monday on Mezhbank the tenders on dollar on ТОМ’е have opened quotations 7,9010/7,9095 грн./долл., by 12:00 the prices have grown up to 7,9115/7,9235 грн./долл. To closing the tenders price levels were established on values 7,9210/7,9260 грн./долл.In spite of the fact that in the USA on September, 6th celebrate Day of Work and the tenders on the American currency were possible only валютированием VOLUME, "green" nevertheless has kept an ascending trend. To it it must be added, that гривня on results of the last week девальвировала on 0,3 % to dollar and on 1,2 % to uniform European currency.
That long time has led to falling … Despite of every possible peripetias, the currency market of Ukraine remained "cool", even in hot years months. All this - consequence of "care" of Natsbank. Since March, in the market surplus of currency was observed.
The offer obviously exceeded demand and if the National bank did not redeem surpluses the dollar for a long time would fall off up to a pre-crisis level. But the regulator persistently continued the policy. Only in March НБУ has redeemed currencies for the sum more than 953 million dollars (for March-August the volume has exceeded 5 billion dollars).
As result, гривня became stronger, the truth, it is not essential - in the end of March the rate made 7,92 грн./долл., and in the end of August - 7,88 грн./долл. In fact it is possible to speak about unofficially fixed rate.
In the mean time, last month summer the situation has changed. Surplus of currency began to run low. For August НБУ has redeemed only 125 million dollars, and in July "proceeds" has made more than 816 million dollars And it that the volume of deals in the market these months essentially did not differ.
Why inflow of currency was reduced … the Reasons for reduction of volume of currency surplus a little.
The first - deterioration of economic positions of exporters. The pre-crisis situation has repeated - the basic export potential of Ukraine is production of metallurgy and chemistry, but for an increase of standard items it is necessary to increase import of power resources, first of all, the Russian natural gas. But in view of its price, all diligence come to naught.
Break off it "vicious circle" export of the foodstuffs could. But the problem with compensation of the VAT has made the given business unprofitable. Small hopes are concerning export of mechanical engineering. But this area requires the settled industrial communications, than our enterprises cannot brag.
The second reason which "brakes" inflow of currency from abroad, - nervousness pending acceptances of the Tax code. Business already shakes from "trusteeship" of authority. All speaks that fiscal pressure will be toughened, and confusion becomes all help that is traditional for Ukraine.
Therefore businessmen do not hasten to return currency from abroad, preferring to store it far away from the family пенат.
The similar tendency is observed and in the currency market. Long-term time purchase налички exceeds sale. So, on results of its August it is bought almost on 400 million dollars more, than it is sold (in July - on 149 million dollars).
And the volume of purchase has grown also. So, in July the volume of the sold at hand currency has made nearby 1,9 billion dollars, in August - more than 2,1 billion dollars
The conclusion arises one - business all invests in наличку and безналичку in fear of introduction "долгоожидаемого" tax press more actively. Most likely, falling гривни will proceed.
All depends on a regulator …
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