Moscow, September 26 (Svicherevsky) – World economy covers New Region, Matvej the second wave of crisis, this time a financial collapse can be tightened for decades. Thus Russia is absolutely not ready to struggle against crisis, the authorities behave so as if oil never will fall below 150 dollars for barrel. So economists Igor Nikolays and Maxim Petronevich see a situation. They stated the opinion on the reasons of falling of a rouble exchange rate and vision of the further succession of events today at press conference in Moscow.
NEW WAVE
The most gloomy forecasts of economists come true, the situation in world economy is worse, than it was expected, the director of department of the strategic analysis of company FBK Igor Nikolays has informed.
«With a high probability it that it is accepted to name the second wave of crisis», – he has told.
Nine chances from ten that the mechanism of an economic collapse is started also it not to stop. The Russian rouble has already reacted to deterioration of financial atmosphere by prompt falling. For the first time for two years the rate of national currency has fallen to 32 roubles for dollar.
All said about problems to the USA and Europe, that Russia in comparison with them – a stability islet, and the rouble has fallen the first and very quickly. It is symptomatic, Igor Nikolays considers – stability of national currency is an indicator of stability of economy.
Principal causes two. The first, rouble is a commodity-raw currency. But it falls even more strongly, than other currencies dependent on raw materials: Canadian, Norwegian, Australian.
«The raw orientation of the Russian economy hasn't decreased, and has become stronger also its strengthening is put for years forward. Modernizatsionnaja rhetoric, this one, and a reality – another», – Nikolaev has told.
The second factor which has affected devaluation – leaving from the country of investors. At threat of falling of the prices for investment oil in the Russian economy become very risky. Investors the history with Michael Prokhorov and party «Just cause« also has frightened.
«This political event has shown that the present power won't admit any liberal turn in management of economy. It has suppressed this variant of events in a germ. Those decisions which are accepted by a tandem during the last years: increase in a defense cost, growth of social support and so on, – kinds of expenses, in my opinion, not the most effective. And the market has realized that in case of crisis of action of the government of Russia the most correct will be undertaken with delay and thus not», – the head of group of forecasting of Institute «considers the development Center« NIU ВШЭ »Maxim Petronevich.
TO FORTY AND MORE LOW
The rouble will continue falling, experts predict. During the elective period devaluation will constrain in every way, but to do it it is infinitely impossible. On a question as Russians to keep savings, Maxim Petronevich has offered two variants: a multiple currency basket and depositary rouble contributions in reliable banks.
«It is important that citizens haven't learned one simple true – it is necessary to store in everything, – he has told. – both in dollars, and in euro, and in roubles. The universal recipe remains without changes. The second that it is possible to advise – to open the account in roubles. To choose bank from a top-30 where rates above».
Igor Nikolays has disagreed with the colleague.
«Pay off on currency to credits that planned to buy – buy. If there was still money – two thirds to translate in the dollars, one – in euro. But not roubles», – the economist has told.
In its opinion, per second half 2012 the dollar will cost an order of 40 roubles. Maxim Petronevich considers, as it not a limit.
«There are many fears that oil can fall below sixty dollars for barrel, – it has explained. – in these conditions the rouble exchange rate can give to forty roubles for dollar and even more low. We carried out calculations. It has turned out that if the price for oil will reach forty five – fifty dollars for barrel, the rouble can depreciate to sixty roubles for dollar».
«Unfortunately, the rouble remains very weak currency, – has added Petronevich. – And it is reflection socially economic policy which is spent since 1998. Despite plural declarations, we can't leave from the raw policy» in any way.
THE GOVERNMENT IN CRISIS DOES NOT TRUST
The approaching second wave of crisis can appear heavier and long, than the first. Then world economy problems "have filled in" with monetary streams of the government of leading powers. Thus, the majority of subjects of the market knew that it will occur and trusted in fast restoration. Now such scenario is already impossible.
«Economic agents don't know that will occur, if the second wave comes. They understand that growth can not be. Economists say that« the lost decade »can wait for us. That is long enough piece when world economy will be стагнировать or to grow very slowly», – the head of group of forecasting of Institute «tells the development Center« NIU ВШЭ »Maxim Petronevich.
This time, «to get off with a fright» as in 2008 – 2009, it will not turn out, the director of department of the strategic analysis of company FBK Igor Nikolays agrees. Russia, as he said, waits and at all «gloomy development of the scenario». The pillow of economic safety in the form of reserve fund has decreased almost in six and a half times – from 4,9 trillion roubles in the beginning of 2009 to 770 million now. Besides, the Russian power fast payment for populism waits.
«The remained money will suffice on holding on and achieving the necessary result on elections, – Igor Nikolays considers. – and it will then be found out that money for support of a rate of national currency isn't present, it is necessary to pay under social obligations what to fulfill promises on financing of defensive expenses is unreal. And here still the Olympic Games, the World championship and the summit».
After threat of defaults of some the euro area states will occupy the large sums in a foreign market of Russia inconveniently. It is necessary to refuse the taken obligations, to turn off investment programs. As consequence – decrease in a standard of life of the population and growth of social intensity.
«This all we will long leave and painfully», – predicts Nikolays.
Maxim Petronevich has completed a sad picture of the near future several gloomy dabs.
«The negative scenario of succession of events is that. Till winter of the price for oil fall. The government starts to eat quickly стабфонды, including that money that are intended for emergency needs. I do not exclude such development of a situation that in the middle of next year Russia can appear with a huge current budgeted deficit. The government will be compelled to decide what to cut – pensions, military expenses, infrastructural and so on. The government as it also was earlier, will cut investment expenses and will raise tariffs for production of natural monopolies: an electricity, water, warmly, Zhd-transportations and so on. As consequence, many businessmen will close the enterprises and the country will leave», – the economist has told.
It is necessary to accept urgently the program of actions for minimization of influences of crisis, experts speak. Already now it is necessary to give a signal to banks and the backbone enterprises – with former volume the state to help can't any more, be going to survive in crisis. But our power behaves as if any crisis doesn't notice.
«The budget testifies that the government doesn't trust in crisis. The plan« »at the government Would be not present, and they at all haven't started to think of it», – Maxim Petronevich has told.
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