It will not be easier

Because of debt crisis in Europe Russia has nothing to wait for rapid growth in 2012. The question only in that, how much strongly it will affect domestic economy. Some possibilities to remain afloat and even to leave in plus at it are available.

Analysts in Russia and abroad give pessimistic forecasts for world economy for 2012. The world, most likely, should face face to face the second wave of crisis. Continuation of "verbal" interventions of the authorities in Europe, a policy «tightenings of belts», mass monetary stimulation of economy by world Central Banks can't lead to any real results. Very heavy weight of service of debts and toughening of requirements to a condition of budgets of the states will lead to aggravation of problems of an euro area. Probably, Greece, Portugal and Iceland in general will leave it.

«Bedstvennost of position in Europe in aggregate with problems of not strong economy of the USA will cause in first half of year a storm in the world financial markets which will mention the whole world», – is told in the review of financial group "Kalita-Finans".

The collapse of the market of interbank crediting inevitably a ricochet will strike on all developed and to developing countries, and also on the currency and commodity-raw markets. Russia won't manage to be avoided this fate. The greatest falling is necessary for first two quarters 2012, experts of the company expect.

Against Russia, besides debt problems in an euro area, play the possible public anxieties connected with presidential elections. The increased risks will inevitably strengthen outflow of the capital from Russia while restoration of trust of investors, even at preservation of political system, raises the doubts.

The forecast of the group economist of "Uralsiba" Alexey Devjatova is more positive. He considers that debt problems in the countries of Europe nevertheless will manage to be solved in 2012, and they will not lead to global crisis. However, economic growth in Russia nevertheless will be slowed down. The volume of gross national product next year will not exceed 2,8 %, Alexey Devjatov is assured.

«Growth of gross national product in 2012 will make 3–3,5 %», – has in turn declared to the newspaper the SIGHT the head of analytical department GK Broco Alexey Matrosov. The Russian economy will feel the basic negative consequences of the European crisis already in the first half of the year 2012, he has added.
And the chief of analytical department IK «the Capital» Denis Barabanov expects Grandis that gross national product growth next year will make 4,4 %. «Apparently, 2012 will be not less difficult, than the expiring year. All the hope again on a conjuncture in the oil market», – marks the expert.

It also predicts that in connection with presidential elections increase of tax burden in Russia won't occur. «Considering splash in political activity of the population after December elections in the State Duma, the authorities won't dare to lift taxes even in case of falling of the prices for oil», – the analyst is assured. As he said, the budgeted deficit will become covered, basically, at the expense of privatization.
Denis Barabanov has reminded that the government has decided to transfer increase of tariffs of monopolies since January for July. It means that in 2012 the tendency to inflation delay will proceed. Following the results of a year the rate of inflation won't exceed 6,5 %. Alexey Matrosov adheres to similar opinion also. Its forecast of inflation makes 6,5–7 % following the results of next year.

Experts unanimously assert that the policy of the Central Bank next year will be softer. «Recently the Bank of Russia gave huge volumes of liquidity. The Central Bank also has expanded the list of securities, under which banks can obtain credits. Besides, the Central Bank declared that is ready to renew беззалоговые credits. If not the correct policy of the Central Bank, we already would have essential crisis of liquidity and growth of rates under credits. For now growth of rates remains moderated. Next year the Central Bank, most likely, will continue the policy», – Alexey Devjatov speaks.
«Before the Central Bank there is an uneasy problem as it is clear that surpluses of liquidity can be used with a view of gamble on a rouble exchange rate. On the other hand, an economic conjuncture very difficult, debts before the Central Bank grow, rates under credits also grow. In addition the positive balance of trading balance is reduced. In case of falling of the prices for oil the rouble exchange rate will sharply go downwards», – Denis Barabanov argues.

He waits for continuation of decrease in the rate of refinancing in 2012. «The Central Bank will try not to allow to weaken to speculators of possibility rouble before elections. We expect decrease in the rate no more than on 0,5 %», – Denis Barabanov hasn'ted.
As to the prices for oil experts unanimously assert that oil cost will be more low, than in 2011. Analysts of "Kality-Finans" warn that within 2012 of the price for oil won't be stable. On the one hand, there is a tendency of reduction of demand for power resources. So, by estimations of oil cartel of the OPEC, in the first half of the year 2012 demand from the European states will fall almost to 3 %. At the same time oil recovery in Libya hardly probable will completely be restored till the end of 2012, and in Egypt and Syria the situation remains still strained. It means that fragile balance of demand-offer of oil will be shortly broken. «Within 2012 of the price for oil of mark Brent won't be stable. The range of fluctuations will make 80–120 dollars for barrel», – experts predict.

Under Alexey Devjatova's forecast, cost of oil of mark Urals won't exceed 98,5 dollars for barrel that below level of this year.
Probable reduction of price in the first half of the year will put pressure upon rouble upon oil, analysts of "Kality-Finans" warn. And if on the threshold of power elections nevertheless can constrain a dollar exchange rate at level of 32 roubles further the situation will be more gloomy against increasing political risks. Depreciation of national currency can reach 34 roubles. And if falling of the offer of oil from the countries of the Near East is not compensated by OPEC member countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, rouble falling can be more essential.

Denis Barabanov considers that the rouble exchange rate will become stronger in relation to euro and will be neutral to dollar. «In first two quarters 2012 the rouble will become cheaper to dollar and to rise in price to euro. Further, in process of euro stabilization, the situation will be leveled. In steam dollar/rouble on the end of the year we wait decrease to a mark of 29 roubles, the average course for a year will be above – 30,5 roubles», – Denis Barabanov speaks.
Alexey Devjatov also trusts in rouble strengthening in relation to dollar. «The matter is that situation improvement in Europe will lead to decrease волатильности which always turned around for Russia capital outflow. If this year capital outflow, under our forecasts, makes 80–90 млрд dollars next year – 30-40 billion For dollar next year will give 29,75 roubles», – the economist speaks.

Let's notice that the deputy minister of the finance of Russia Sergey Storchak in the end of 2011 also has given the forecast at the rate of domestic currency which, in its opinion, will make 31 rouble for dollar.
Refusal of investors from высокорискованных actives will be the basic tendency in the currency market in 2012, analysts of "Kality-Finans" specify. Currencies of the developing states will appear under pressure against falling of demand for natural resources from leading world powers. As "silent" harbor traders will choose the American state papers which have proved as "a top-quality" active.

The market of precious metals, in particular, gold becomes one more saving "refuge". Mass flight in a noninflationary active will lead to a price hike on the tool: by the end of 2012 of the quotation can reach 2000 dollars for ounce.
«Stock markets in coming year will represent« a battlefield »world Central Banks and exhausted traders. Nevertheless scale monetary injections cannot stop the markets from« bear »a trend. So, S&P within a year can reach marks in 1100 points, and Russian the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange – 1200 points», – it is told in the review "Kality-Finans".

Among the most risky branches of analytics have allocated sector of ferrous metallurgy, media and ИТ. Besides, with care it is necessary to concern papers of financial and power branches. From more reliable branches experts have noted telecommunication, oil and gas, partially transport
«Within next months we repeatedly will see change of moods – from a panic to euphoria. In the conditions of raised волатильности strategy« pay and take »hardly will work, and the best results will be brought by active management of a portfolio», – the director of analytical department of Nomos-bank Cyril Tremasov warns. By its estimations, RTS index by the end of 2012 will be at level of 1800 points, and the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange – at level of 1750 points.

It is necessary to notice that the official forecast of Ministry of economic development and trade for 2012 assumes the price for oil Urals around 100 dollars against 109 in 2011. Gross national product of Russia will grow in 2012 on 3,7 % against 4,2 % in 2011. Inflation will make 5–6 % against 6,2–6,5 % in 2011.