Because of the decrease in grain yield, food prices began to rise now. In July of this year, food prices rose more strongly than in the dry and hot July of 2010.
The fact that the prices of some food products will rise, market participants have no doubt. The dispute is only about when prices will stop.
Back in July, representatives of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture predicted that the grain harvest this year will be 85 million tons. In early August, they warned that the crop may fall to 70-75 million tons.
Meanwhile, the USDA lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat harvest to 49 million tonnes (in the July report) to 41.5 million tons (today).
In 2010, due to fire and drought total grain harvest of 61 million tons of grain. Then, Russia was forced to impose a ban on grain exports.
Flooding in the Kuban
"There is a risk that the situation will evolve, as in 2007-2008," said in an interview with Reuters analyst at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization Abdolreza Abbasian. "There are expectations that this time will not be restrictions on the market, so such a serious situation, as in 2007-2008 will not be," - said the expert.
"Internally, [Russian] market can be expected to continue rising prices due to the expectations of grain harvest in the fall of 2012, and a sharp drop in stocks" - written in the review of commodity markets, financial experts of "discovery."
"Due to the high prices of exports slowed slightly: as of the first week of July, it was taken out of 275 thousand tons of grain (340 thousand tons last year during the same period), including 225 thousand tons of wheat," - experts add.
Flooding in the Krasnodar region did not have a material adverse effect on the crops of grain, but the destruction of road routes may slow the shipment for export.
Growth in food prices
Prices of many food items - from milk to bread - is expected to grow by an average of 5-15%. The representative of X5 Retail Group (Shops "Crossroads," "Pyaterochka", "Carousel", "penny") Svetlana Vitkovskaya told BBC BBC that "there are no sharp fluctuations in the market is not expected."
Risk of deficiency is only for buckwheat, due to fires in the Altai, explained Vitkovskaya. Rise in price of bread, flour, pasta, milk, chicken, vegetable oil, eggs, beef and pork. Vegetables - carrots, cabbage, potatoes - and sugar, however, fall in price.
Meat and milk are becoming more expensive due to lower grain yield. Vegetables become cheaper as farmers harvest.
Dairy prices rise from late July to 3-4 rubles a week, said Sergei Gurzo, Purchasing Director of "Altervest."
For example, in the early summer of a kilogram of butter fat content of 72% of cost 105-109 rubles (for bulk purchase), now - 120-121 rubles, according Gurzo. A milk powder in June cost 105 rubles, while now - 115.Rumors on milk
Traders said the rise in milk prices will continue for another few weeks.
Sergei Gurzo who buys milk from the Belarusian producers, said that information on exactly how much prices would rise, no, because the data on finite stocks of milk authorities did not disclose. Because of this, there are many rumors. For some of these stocks have enough milk so that in a month the prices will start to decline.
According to the National Union of Milk "SOYUZMOLOKO", the cost of a liter of milk increased by 2 rubles, since almost doubled compared to 2011, prices for feed.
In order to curb the rise in the price of milk to consumers, representatives of "SOYUZMOLOKO" asked at the end of July the state subsidy for the purchase of food.
The fact that the prices of some food products will rise, market participants have no doubt. The dispute is only about when prices will stop.
Back in July, representatives of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture predicted that the grain harvest this year will be 85 million tons. In early August, they warned that the crop may fall to 70-75 million tons.
Meanwhile, the USDA lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat harvest to 49 million tonnes (in the July report) to 41.5 million tons (today).
In 2010, due to fire and drought total grain harvest of 61 million tons of grain. Then, Russia was forced to impose a ban on grain exports.
Flooding in the Kuban
"There is a risk that the situation will evolve, as in 2007-2008," said in an interview with Reuters analyst at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization Abdolreza Abbasian. "There are expectations that this time will not be restrictions on the market, so such a serious situation, as in 2007-2008 will not be," - said the expert.
"Internally, [Russian] market can be expected to continue rising prices due to the expectations of grain harvest in the fall of 2012, and a sharp drop in stocks" - written in the review of commodity markets, financial experts of "discovery."
"Due to the high prices of exports slowed slightly: as of the first week of July, it was taken out of 275 thousand tons of grain (340 thousand tons last year during the same period), including 225 thousand tons of wheat," - experts add.
Flooding in the Krasnodar region did not have a material adverse effect on the crops of grain, but the destruction of road routes may slow the shipment for export.
Growth in food prices
Prices of many food items - from milk to bread - is expected to grow by an average of 5-15%. The representative of X5 Retail Group (Shops "Crossroads," "Pyaterochka", "Carousel", "penny") Svetlana Vitkovskaya told BBC BBC that "there are no sharp fluctuations in the market is not expected."
Risk of deficiency is only for buckwheat, due to fires in the Altai, explained Vitkovskaya. Rise in price of bread, flour, pasta, milk, chicken, vegetable oil, eggs, beef and pork. Vegetables - carrots, cabbage, potatoes - and sugar, however, fall in price.
Meat and milk are becoming more expensive due to lower grain yield. Vegetables become cheaper as farmers harvest.
Dairy prices rise from late July to 3-4 rubles a week, said Sergei Gurzo, Purchasing Director of "Altervest."
For example, in the early summer of a kilogram of butter fat content of 72% of cost 105-109 rubles (for bulk purchase), now - 120-121 rubles, according Gurzo. A milk powder in June cost 105 rubles, while now - 115.Rumors on milk
Traders said the rise in milk prices will continue for another few weeks.
Sergei Gurzo who buys milk from the Belarusian producers, said that information on exactly how much prices would rise, no, because the data on finite stocks of milk authorities did not disclose. Because of this, there are many rumors. For some of these stocks have enough milk so that in a month the prices will start to decline.
According to the National Union of Milk "SOYUZMOLOKO", the cost of a liter of milk increased by 2 rubles, since almost doubled compared to 2011, prices for feed.
In order to curb the rise in the price of milk to consumers, representatives of "SOYUZMOLOKO" asked at the end of July the state subsidy for the purchase of food.
No comments:
Post a Comment