In China in 2012г. The own financial crisis which has been not introduced from the outside is possible. Such opinion was stated on air of RBC-TV program "Dialogue with Sergey Aleksashenko" the director of the center of macroeconomic researches of the Savings Bank by Xenia Judaeva.
"Radical difference of a present situation from a situation 2008г. Is a state of affairs in China. There, certainly, certain problems have collected, and they to a certain extent grow out of that they haven't bad passed 2008-2009гг. Two years ago about financial crisis in China speeches didn't go. And now say that in China the own financial crisis which has been not introduced from the outside" is possible more and more, - the expert marks.
However, according to the leader of the program, the director for macroeconomic researches of the Higher school of economy of Sergey Aleksashenko, serious problems at Chinese financial systems shouldn't be. "It all state, despite presence of foreign banks at a role миноритариев, all banks are under control to the state. It is ready to allocate with it any money, the state establishes credit plans. It is clear that a problem of bad debts anyhow on itself takes the state", - the leader has told.
Thus he has added that "is ready to believe that in China rates of increase will be slowed down, volumes of investments will be reduced, demand for a steel" will decrease, but he isn't ready to believe in financial crisis in the country because the state will help the banks.
K.Judaeva in this connection has noticed that, "fortunately, China - not Belarus". "Therefore we can easily assume that the Chinese central authorities can incur debts bank and debts of provinces. And, most likely, all system will appear enough steady", - she has told, having added that nevertheless the crisis phenomena in a number of sectors of the Chinese economy it is available.
"There are crisis phenomena in девелопменте, there are debts of provinces, it can make negative impact on the Chinese investments into an infrastructure that will lead to some reduction in demand for a steel and other goods", - has explained K.Judaeva. As she said, it can affect and the Russian economy, "the channel of distribution of crisis to Russia obviously is present".
Speaking about bank system of Russia, K.Judaeva has declared that 2012г. Will be for the Russian bank system year of serious tests
"Now at us debts, but inflation low have collected" bad ", and debts don't depreciate. Therefore for bank system 2012г. Will be year of serious tests because serious inflation it is not expected almost up to the end 2012г. Rates of economic growth precisely strongly won't grow. Superfluous liquidity too has no place to undertake", - it has explained.
Concerning problems of banks on attraction of the capital, K.Judaeva has reminded that in 2008г. "For the first time in a Post-Soviet history in the Russian Federation there were positive interest rates under deposits, and the population is accurate on them has reacted", putting up the money in banks.
"Now a situation similar, only with ready smaller margin. Percentage already rates grow, they pass in positive area. On the other hand, inflation low, and in parallel to lift up rates under credits the same rates that rates under deposits grow, it will be impossible, because rates of crediting" will fall, - has added the expert.
In its opinion, next year also it will not turn out to play on a rouble exchange rate. "Now still it seems to some that the rouble will be devaluated and it will be possible to play on the rate of exchange, as in 2008г. But it seems to me that now a situation another, the rouble won't continue to depreciate also. Attempts play on the rate of exchange can to come to an end badly. Sharp falling is possible, only if in Europe there will be something catastrophic. The course, of course, can slowly depreciate, but play it at the current policy of the Central Bank it will be difficult", - has explained K.Judaeva.
Finishing a theme, the leader of the program, the director for macroeconomic researches of the Higher school of economy of S.Aleksashenko has assumed that in 2012г. Banks will face huge problems while they will need to repay the credit before the Central bank of the Russian Federation, "and someone from them can not endure it".
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