Alexander Ajvazov, independent analyst
The second wave of crisis expects us in 2012-2015 in this crisis it is possible to expect a collapse of the oil prices to level of their market balance at 25-35$ for barrel. During the same time there will be a wreck of the present world financial system based on US dollar, as to virtual monetary unit. The prices for gold will fly up to heavens (quite probably achievement of such heights, as 2-3 thousand $ for ounce) since the huge weight of speculative capitals will try to wait «an economic storm» in «silent gold harbor». And only then preconditions for creation of a new world financial system without which further the world economy already simply can't develop will be generated.
Many are excited with a question: «How to expect the economic crises similar to volume, what has burst in 2008 at least to smooth their negative consequences?». It is quite possible if to understand fundamental laws of economic development. In 2004 of V.I.Pantin, leaning against the theory of the big business cycles of outstanding Russian economist N.D.Kondrateva, has absolutely precisely foretold that the world economic crisis will begin in 2008. The author of these lines in 2006 repeatedly wrote in the articles that world crisis will begin not earlier 2008 and not later than 2010.
And for half a year prior to the beginning of crisis the prices for oil grow in the article «Why?», leaning against N.D.Kondrateva's same theory, it was possible not only to prove to me inevitability of the fast beginning of this crisis, but also to predict falling of the oil prices to their real market cost. Hasn't passed also half a year from the moment of article writing as the prices for oil with 147$ have fallen to 33$ for barrel, having shown to the whole world true market price of supply and demand of prepotent raw materials of the XX-th century. The others more than 100$ is there was the speculative margin which has arisen owing to leaving of the financial capital, felt approaching crisis, from real economy in virtual.
When new crisis will begin?
In the autumn of 2008 of the beginning right after of crisis we from A.B.Kobjakovym have written article «Nikolay Kondratyev, as a crisis mirror» in which have in detail explained the reasons and the mechanism of formation of a present world economic crisis, and those consequences in which it will result world economy the next decade. And in a year when crisis was in the heat, academician A.A.Akaev, V.I.Pantin and the author of these lines, leaning against N.D.Kondrateva's theory, have developed the schedule of the most probable development of world economy till 2020.
According to this schedule the world gross national product fluctuating till 2008 round a dashed line designated Y (o), has sharply left downwards, having changed a picture of development of world economy. Recessions and liftings on this schedule are not any way drawn curve, and carefully counted factors of changes of world gross national product. All the matter is that approximately, time in half a century occurrence in a falling phase four business cycles of different duration coincides at once on time and there is a resonance effect. So in 2007-2008гг. There was a resonance effect, when in cycles: Китчина, Zhjugljara, the Smith and Kondratyev practically have been simultaneously passed the top peak points of development, and the recession phase has begun.
The diagram 1. The Most probable development of world economy till 2020
Cycles of Kitchina are short-term business cycles with the characteristic period 3-5 years opened in 1920th years by English economist Joseph Kitchinym. Within the limits of a cycle of Kitchina there is an infringement and restoration of market balance of supply and demand of the goods in the market to which there corresponds certain level and a parity of market prices. Balance of the first order named N.D.Kondratev balance in the market, Kitchina reached in a cycle. Present recession of a cycle of Kitchina was showed in sharp falling of world demand for the majority of the goods therefore in its bottom point in 2009 the volume of world trade according to the WTO has fallen off on 12 %.
Cycles of Zhjugljara are intermediate term business cycles with the characteristic period in 7-11 years. The French economist Klemana Zhjugljara, one of the first described these cycles is named by name. Unlike cycles of Kitchina within the limits of cycles of Zhjugljara we observe fluctuations not simply in volumes of the goods and commodity-material stocks in warehouses of sellers and manufacturers, but also in levels of loading of existing capacities, in unemployment growth, and as in decrease in volumes of investments into updating of an active part of fixed capital. Cycles of Zhjugljara in detail analyzed in K.Marks's "Capital", and N.Kondratev named the balance reached in these cycles, balance of the second order. Occurrence in recession of a cycle of Zhjugljara was marked by essential decrease in 2008-2009 of loading of capacities, sharp growth of unemployment and considerable decrease in rates of updating of fixed capital.
Cycles of the Smith are business cycles with the characteristic period approximately in 20-22 years. Have been opened in 1930 Nobel prize winner Simon Kuznets who connected these cycles with demographic processes and respective alterations in building volumes, therefore he named their "building" cycles. Now cycles of the Smith are considered in wider aspect, as infrastructural cycles. Besides, the big cycles of the prices for real estate well coincide with a cycle of the Smith. Recession in a cycle of the Smith in 2007-2008 was showed in mortgage crisis and sharp reduction of volumes of building in housing, industrial and infrastructural spheres of the developed countries, and as by falling of the prices for habitation
The big business cycles Kondratyev (K-cycles) proceed 40-50 years and consist of two waves - bearish and повышательной. In 2008 the world economy was included into a bearish wave of the sixth K-cycle in which process will occur the formation of new sixth technological way (THAT) based on nano - bio- and other newest technologies without which development the further growth of world economy will be impossible. But Kondratyev warned that «intermediate-term cycles (Kitchina, Zhjugljara, the Smith - А.А.), having for the bearish period of the big cycle, should be characterized by special duration and depth of recession, brevity and weakness of liftings». Therefore superfluous optimism of world leaders from short-term lifting in a cycle of Kitchina in which there is a world economy now, is obviously premature since after lifting new falling in a cycle of Kitchina will begin.
All these cycles have different duration and reach the bottom points of falling through different time intervals, therefore after initial resonant falling they start to work in an antiphase, and after synchronous falling we have not any homogeneous process, and the sum of fluctuations of different frequency, amplitude and directions. Till 2008 world gross national product fluctuated round a dashed line designated on schedule Y (o), but financial crisis and a collapse in the American credit market, have led to falling of mass demand and consumption reduction in the USA and other developed countries of the world. All it, in turn, has caused scale reduction of world production. I want to pay special attention that the given schedule was made in the autumn of 2009 when world economy still continued the falling, but authors already then expected its small growth in 2010-11, as has proved to be true in practice.
At the expense of government programs of financing of demand in the developed countries world economy falling in a cycle of Kitchina has been suspended already by the end of 2009. Such programs of state financing of demand of the population as «cars for jalopies» etc., have cleared away the commodity-material stocks which have accumulated in warehouses and have generated demand for their replenishment. A huge role additional demand has played from China which has sharply increased centralized investments into the economy to reorient it from an export orientation on expansion of internal demand. Slow revival of manufacture at the expense of replenishment of warehouse stocks and satisfaction of growing Chinese demand for raw materials and the modern process equipment which in the Peoples Republic of China was delivered by Japan and Germany, the first of the developed countries overcome falling of the economy at the expense of the Chinese demand has begun.
But mass injection of liquidity in economy of the developed countries have sharply increased and without that considerable deficiencies of the state budgets and have led to uncontrollable growth of public debts that has demanded rigid reduction of the State expenditure. Huge growth of the state investments has already led to uncontrollable growth of inflation in China, and has forced the government of the Peoples Republic of China to toughen the financial policy that will lead to inevitable decrease in the Chinese demand in the world markets. Falling of consumer crediting, growth of savings of the population on "rainy day", a high rate of unemployment and essential reduction of the State expenditure inevitably in the nearest will cause year-two new recession in the world commodity markets within the limits of a cycle of Kitchina.
The high rate of unemployment, low level of loading of capacities, absence of sufficient crediting of real sector of economy in the developed countries and falling of investments in fixed capital updating testify that within the limits of a cycle of Zhjugljara the world economy will be in depression, at least, to 2013-14 In a cycle of the Smith the world economy will reach the bottom point of falling not earlier than 2017-2018 to what absence of growth in the building industry, low demand and falling of the prices for habitation testifies. Depression in a cycle of the Smith will last to 2018-19 when in a cycle of Zhjugljara the new phase of crisis will already begin. In Kondratyev's cycle the bearish wave will come to the end not earlier than 2018-20 when it will be generated new THAT.
Thus, the second wave of crisis or the second crisis of a bearish wave of the sixth K-cycle expects us in 2012-2015 when cycles of Zhjugljara, the Smith and Kondratyev will be in a depression condition, and the cycle of Kitchina again will enter into a recession phase. In this crisis it is possible to expect a collapse of the oil prices to level of their market balance at 25-35$ for barrel. During the same time there will be a wreck of the present world financial system based on US dollar, as to virtual monetary unit. The prices for gold will fly up to heavens (quite probably achievement of such heights, as 2-3 thousand $ for ounce) since the huge weight of speculative capitals will try to wait «an economic storm» in «silent gold harbor». And only then preconditions for creation of a new world financial system without which further the world economy already simply can't develop will be generated.
After 2015, at the expense of lifting in cycles of Kitchina and Zhjugljara, but against proceeding depression in cycles of the Smith and Kondratyev, world economy revival will begin. But in 2017-19 we are expected by the new serious crisis connected with transition of cycles of Kitchina and Zhjugljara in new recession though in cycles of the Smith and Kondratyev slow revival will begin. And only, since 2020 when in cycles of the Smith and Kitchina lifting will begin and it will be generated кластер basic innovations the sixth THAT, the world economy will pass on повышательную the K-cycle wave. And after 2025 when lifting will come and in a cycle of Zhjugljara, the world will pass to stable growth on the basis of new THAT which basis, according to academicians A.A.Akaeva and V.A.Sadovnichego, will make: «computer technologies, biotechnology and gene engineering, multimedia, including global intellectual information networks, superconductors and non-polluting power».
Oil - blood of modern economy
In a XIX-th century Great Britain for 100 years has established the world supremacy, the first having carried out Industrial revolution and having generated the second THAT, based on the steam engine and prepotent power resources of an epoch of steam – coal. Fourth THAT, based on an internal combustion engine and oil as the prepotent power resource, the first have seized the USA. Last 80 years without oil there can not be a power, without it there will not go cars and trains, planes won't depart and the ships won't float, without it the world economy can't simply function. Therefore the USA became after the Second World War the leader of world economic development, and the price for oil - a prepotent power resource, as well as the prices for gold, are mirror (i.e. the return, as in a mirror) reflection of qualitative changes of a world economic conjuncture.
When the world market is on повышательной to a wave of the development of the price for oil (as the goods possessing absolute liquidity) and gold (as a universal equivalent and as a measure of value of all other goods) in full conformity with the Kondratevsky theory of cycles are at a minimum level. And though demand both for oil, and for gold constantly grows, term of money of their cost is defined, as well as at the usual ordinary goods, supply and demand fluctuations, and their market cost balances round the manufacture and transportation price. But as soon as повышательная the wave settles potential of the growth and there is a qualitative infringement of universal market condition, at once capitals start to escape in oil and in gold.
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