As though, at times, it would be desirable the return, but all countries in world economy are closely interconnected. And it means that the problems arising in one region, will introduce sooner or later the corrective amendments in an economic situation of others. Therefore to think that the second wave of crisis will avoid Russia, would be, at least, fondly. Naturally, it will mention not only national economy, but also the financial market of the Russian Federation.
The currency market of Russia 2010 – 2011
In 2010 the Russian financial market showed restoration against a favorable conjuncture of a foreign market and revival in real sector of national economy. Pleased also the internal currency market of Russia. The Central Bank even could expand an interval of admissible values of cost бивалютной baskets for the purpose of increase of flexibility of a rouble exchange rate and restriction of the presence in the currency market. But it didn't prevent to be kept to rouble in the established limits, and all movements have been caused exclusively by factors of fundamental character.
Positive enough for the Russian currency was also the beginning of 2011. But latest developments have led to that, as the currency market of the Russian Federation has given in to a general panic. Anything surprising in it isn't present, as serious problems in an euro zone (including fall of a rating of Italy) compel investors to leave risky investments in safe actives. It means that demand for currencies – refuges grows: US dollar, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. And here the rouble a cohort doesn't enter into it. As a result, that easing of national currency was operated, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is compelled to sell foreign (only for September within the limits of currency interventions it has been sold 8 billion dollars). It means that the currency market of Russia 2011 any more so is independent and stable, as in 2010.
Let's glance in the future
If to speak about world economy not the best tendencies already are now observed. Besides problems of a sovereign debt in an euro area, practically everywhere there is a delay of rates of increase of gross national product. And, most likely, in the near future the situation won't change. New stimulus are necessary for world economy to return to those rates of increase which it has reached after attenuation of the first wave of crisis. And here still a situation aggravate and entered measures of rigid budgetary economy. And, even if new stimulating measures will be entered, the effect from them will be shown isn't momentary. Will pass at least 4-6 months before we will see positive results. Good it doesn't bear anything also to economy of Russia which basis is raw materials export. In the conditions of slump in production there is a natural reduction in demand for it which consequence is falling of the prices. In particular, oil already becomes cheaper, and its price has fallen below 100 dollars for barrel. It means that the Russian economy also can face the second wave of crisis. After all falling of the prices for "oil" not only threatens predicted growth of national economy in 2011, but also can provoke serious problems with budget filling in 2012. Without support from oil the rouble will be even more vulnerable. It is natural that in the light of similar events, the financial market of Russia 2011 will need strong support from the Central Bank.
To predict, what will be currency market development in Russia in the near future and as the exchange rate now business ungrateful will lead. Yes, it is an important component of economy, but nevertheless on a threshold of the next wave of crisis not it should excite investors. With confidence it is possible to tell only one: taking into account escalating integration of economy of Russia in world the Russian currency market and in 2012 will remain under influence not only national, but also external factors.
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